🚀 Annex Wealth Management Economist Discusses Impact of Rising Gasoline Prices on CPI
Annex Wealth Management's Chief Economist, Brian Jacobsen, commented on April 10 that while he anticipated a rise in overall CPI due to increasing gasoline prices, the actual data was surprising. According to Jin10, Jacobsen noted that there is currently no evidence of high energy prices affecting core inflation. He explained that this process might take time to manifest, as businesses are likely to absorb most of the initial impact. In a way, consumers cutting back on other discretionary spending could potentially lower core inflation rather than increase it.
#AnnexWealthManagement#Economist#GasolinePrices#CPI#CoreInflation#EnergyPrices#InflationImpact#DiscretionarySpending
🚀 U.S. March CPI Rises Sharply Amid Conflict with Iran
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March showed a significant increase, driven by soaring gasoline prices due to the ongoing conflict with Iran. According to Jin10, the seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.9% month-on-month, marking the largest increase since 2022. Data released on Friday indicated that the CPI climbed 0.9% from February, with the year-on-year growth rate accelerating to 3.3%, the fastest pace since 2024. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that the record surge in gasoline prices contributed nearly three-quarters of the monthly CPI increase. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, saw a more modest rise of 0.2% month-on-month.
#USCPI#MarchCPI#gasolineprices#Iranconflict#consumerpriceindex#economicdata#inflation#BureauofLaborStatistics#coreCPI#economicgrowth
🚀 White House Predicts Gasoline Price Drop with Hormuz Strait Opening
The White House National Economic Council Director, Kevin Hassett, has indicated that gasoline prices are expected to decrease swiftly once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. According to Odaily, Hassett mentioned that discussions have been held with allies to ensure a stable supply of U.S. oil. Additionally, consultations regarding the purchase of oil and natural gas have been conducted with allied nations.
#WhiteHouse#GasolinePrices#HormuzStrait#OilSupply#USEconomy#EnergyPolicy#NaturalGas#KevinHassett#GlobalTrade#OilMarket
🚀 U.S. Crude Oil Exports Surge Amid Middle East Supply Disruptions
U.S. crude oil exports are projected to reach 5.2 million barrels per day in April, marking a nearly one-third increase from March's 3.9 million barrels per day. According to Odaily, this surge is driven by Asian customers seeking alternatives to Middle Eastern oil supplies disrupted by the Iran conflict. Demand from Asian clients has risen by 82% to 2.5 million barrels per day. Data from oil research firm Kpler indicates that 68 empty tankers are currently en route to the U.S., compared to 24 in the week before the conflict began on February 28, and an average of 27 last year.
The U.S. and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, but tensions remain high as Iran declared the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday following an Israeli attack on Lebanon. Previous blockades had caused U.S. oil prices to soar by over 50%, with WTI crude surpassing $110 per barrel earlier this week, maintaining a level more than 40% higher than before the conflict.
In response, the Trump administration has announced the release of over 170 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to stabilize fuel prices. Despite these efforts, U.S. gasoline prices have exceeded $4 per gallon for the first time in four years.
#USCrudeOilExports#MiddleEastSupplyDisruptions#IranConflict#AsianOilDemand#WTICrude#StrategicPetroleumReserve#OilPrices#GasolinePrices#OilResearch#StraitOfHormuz#TrumpAdministration
🚀 U.S. CPI Watch: U.S. CPI Jumps 0.9% in March, Highest Since 2022 as Oil Drives Inflation Surge
Key TakeawaysU.S. CPI rose 0.9% MoM, largest increase since 2022.Inflation hit 3.3% YoY, fastest pace since 2024.Gasoline accounted for ~75% of the monthly increase.Core CPI (ex-food & energy) slowed to 0.2% MoM.Inflation Surges on Energy ShockLatest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a sharp acceleration in inflation for March, with headline CPI rising 0.9% month-on-month.This marks the largest monthly increase since 2022, highlighting the growing impact of energy prices on the broader economy.Gasoline Prices Drive Majority of IncreaseThe surge in inflation was overwhelmingly driven by rising fuel costs linked to geopolitical tensions.Key detail:Gasoline contributed nearly three-quarters (~75%) of the CPI increaseThe spike reflects the ripple effects of higher oil prices amid the Iran conflict, which has tightened global energy supply.Yearly Inflation Accelerates to 3.3%On a yearly basis:CPI rose 3.3% YoY, the fastest pace since 2024This suggests inflation pressures are re-accelerating after a period of relative stabilization.Core Inflation Shows Signs of CoolingDespite the headline surge, underlying inflation remains more contained:Core CPI (excluding food and energy): +0.2% MoMThis indicates that:Price pressures are still largely energy-drivenBroader inflation may not yet be fully entrenchedMarket ImplicationsThe data presents a mixed signal for markets:Bullish for rates / USD:Strong headline inflationReinforces “higher-for-longer” Fed stanceNeutral-to-positive for risk assets (conditionally):Core inflation remains controlledSuggests inflation spike may be temporary if energy stabilizesEnergy vs Core Inflation BattleThe key question going forward is whether energy-driven inflation spills into the broader economy.Markets will closely watch:Wage growth trendsCore inflation trajectoryOil price stabilityIf energy pressures persist, inflation could remain elevated. If not, the spike may prove temporary.For now, the data reinforces a macro environment of elevated uncertainty, with inflation increasingly tied to geopolitical developments.
#USCPI#InflationSurge#EnergyShock#GasolinePrices#OilPrices#CoreCPI#GeopoliticalTensions#USInflation#EconomicData#MarketImplications#HigherForLonger#WageGrowth#RiskAssets#OilPriceStability#2024Inflation