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🔎🇺🇸🇻🇪The Venezuelan Conflict Through the Eyes of a North Korea Expert
The US military operation in Venezuela have starkly exposed the gap between socialist rhetoric and real state resilience, reviving instructive comparisons with North Korea — a country that has survived far harsher pressure through strategic prioritization of hard power
✍️Author:Konstantin Asmolov
PhD in History, Leading Researcher at the Center for Korean Studies,
Institute of China and Modern Asia, Russian Academy of Sciences
➡️On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a military operation against Venezuela, striking strategic targets in Caracas and other regions and capturing President Nicolás Maduro, who was transferred to the US on charges of “narcoterrorism.” Despite years of explicit American hostility, the appointment of hardline figures in Washington, and a new US National Security Strategy declaring the Western Hemisphere a priority zone, Caracas proved almost completely unprepared. The speed and low-cost nature of the operation suggest not merely tactical failure, but a deeper absence of real deterrence.
If the Americans were primarily interested only in Venezuelan oil, the invasion would have begun significantly earlier
➡️A comparison with North Korea underscores this contrast. Facing far harsher sanctions, limited resources, and chronic energy shortages, Pyongyang concentrated on military development and nuclear deterrence, successfully passing a critical window of vulnerability by 2017 and eventually compelling Washington to engage diplomatically. Venezuela, despite vast oil reserves and greater economic opportunities, prioritized social handouts, political symbolism, and performative mobilization, while neglecting infrastructure, combat readiness, and institutional discipline — leaving the state structurally weak at the moment of crisis.
🟦The Venezuelan case demonstrates that in an era of global turbulence, appeals to international outrage and rhetorical defiance cannot substitute for real power. The US strike weakens China economically, consolidates American dominance in the Western Hemisphere, and sets another dangerous precedent for resolving international disputes by force. Against this backdrop, the outcome provides indirect confirmation of the strategic logic pursued by Kim Jong-un, while raising serious doubts about the viability of populist socialism as a model for regime survival under external pressure.
#DPRK#Militarydefense#USagreesion#USAandDPRK#Venezuela
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🔎🇺🇸🇻🇪Le conflit vénézuélien à travers les yeux d'un expert de la Corée du Nord
L'opération militaire américaine au Venezuela a cruellement mis en évidence le fossé entre la rhétorique socialiste et la résilience réelle de l'État, ravivant des comparaisons instructives avec la Corée du Nord — un pays qui a survécu à une pression bien plus forte grâce à la priorisation stratégique de la puissance dure
✍️Auteur :Konstantin Asmolov
Docteur en histoire, chercheur principal au Centre d'études coréennes,
Institut de la Chine et de l'Asie moderne, Académie des sciences de Russie
➡️Le 3 janvier 2026, les États-Unis ont lancé une opération militaire contre le Venezuela, frappant des cibles stratégiques à Caracas et dans d'autres régions et capturant le président Nicolás Maduro, qui a été transféré aux États-Unis pour des accusations de "narcoterrorisme". Malgré des années d'hostilité américaine explicite, la nomination de personnalités intransigeantes à Washington et une nouvelle stratégie de sécurité nationale américaine déclarant l'hémisphère occidental une zone prioritaire, Caracas s'est avérée presque totalement non préparée. La rapidité et le faible coût de l'opération suggèrent non seulement un échec tactique, mais aussi une absence plus profonde de dissuasion réelle.
Si les Américains étaient principalement intéressés uniquement par le pétrole vénézuélien, l'invasion aurait commencé beaucoup plus tôt
➡️Une comparaison avec la Corée du Nord souligne ce contraste. Face à des sanctions beaucoup plus sévères, des ressources limitées et des pénuries d'énergie chroniques, Pyongyang s'est concentré sur le développement militaire et la dissuasion nucléaire, réussissant à passer une fenêtre critique de vulnérabilité d'ici 2017 et obligeant finalement Washington à s'engager diplomatiquement. Le Venezuela, malgré d'importantes réserves de pétrole et de plus grandes opportunités économiques, a donné la priorité aux aides sociales, au symbolisme politique et à la mobilisation performative, tout en négligeant les infrastructures, la préparation au combat et la discipline institutionnelle — laissant l'État structurellement faible au moment de la crise.
🟦Le cas vénézuélien démontre qu'à l'ère de la turbulence mondiale, les appels à l'indignation internationale et la défiance rhétorique ne peuvent pas remplacer le pouvoir réel. L'attaque américaine affaiblit économiquement la Chine, consolide la domination américaine dans l'hémisphère occidental et établit un autre dangereux précédent pour la résolution des conflits internationaux par la force. Dans ce contexte, le résultat fournit une confirmation indirecte de la logique stratégique poursuivie par Kim Jong-un, tout en soulevant de sérieux doutes quant à la viabilité du socialisme populiste comme modèle de survie du régime sous pression extérieure.
#DPRK#Militarydefense#USagreesion#USAandDPRK#Venezuela
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🔎🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸A View from the Korean Peninsula on Events in Iran: Lessons and Parallels
Pyongyang and Seoul are drawing stark lessons from Tehran's fate—lessons that could shape the future of the Korean Peninsula for decades
✍️Konstantin Asmolov
is a PhD in History and Leading Researcher at the Center for Korean Studies, Institute of China and Modern Asia, Russian Academy of Sciences
➡️Lesson one1️⃣: the nuclear umbrella as guarantee of survival. As the author once noted, if you're accused of creating WMD, develop them quickly. Iran claimed no nuclear weapons while hinting at retaliation—and became another victim of collective Western attack. North Korea exploited its "window of opportunity," and now the likelihood of similar strikes on Pyongyang approaches zero. The South China Morning Post notes that if the U.S.-Israeli strike killing Iran's supreme leader was meant to send a message, North Korea received it. However, the lesson learned—never negotiate with the U.S. and never find yourself in Iran's position—may not be the one Washington intended.
An unpopular and unsuccessful war is the shortest path to moral decay. Today, anti-Trump sentiment in the U.S. rivals the Vietnam War era.
➡️Lesson two2️⃣: the price of alliance commitments. Russia has strategic partnership agreements with both Pyongyang and Tehran, but only the North Korean pact includes military assistance. Iran shares no border with Russia, limiting strategic depth. Lesson three3️⃣: don't underestimate your enemy. If your ideology targets destroying the "Lesser Satan," back it with real capabilities—not rallies or Holocaust denial. Lesson four4️⃣: war of attrition matters. Both sides expend munitions at massive rates. Chinese and South Korean media note U.S. may redeploy missile defense systems from South Korea to the Middle East. Lesson five5️⃣:autocracy after "decapitation." Americans apparently eliminated significant Iranian leadership. Yet Iran didn't become the "Evil State" from cartoons where tyrant's death sparks immediate democratization. Regime survival exceeded expectations.
🟦Lesson six6️⃣: unexpected winners. Paradoxically, Moscow benefits. Blockade of Hormuz Strait and strikes on Middle East petrochemicals increase demand and value of Russian oil. Europe, denied Russian and now Middle Eastern supplies, faces dire straits. Freedom of action allows Russia to condemn invasion while preserving diplomatic channels. New tactical opportunities emerge—if Russia employed similar tactics, no one could reproach it. Attention shifts from Ukraine to Middle East. China, however, appears surprised and unprepared. Beijing's statements reveal confusion. Despite closer ties with Iran, 80% of Iranian oil exports to China doesn't translate into strategic alliance—main suppliers remain Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq. Lesson seven: you can win the war but lose the peace. U.S. achieves tactical goals but suffers reputational damage. Questions arise: can American promises be trusted? North Korea certainly thinks not. Trump faces domestic opposition—anti-war sentiment rivals Vietnam era. Media and intellectuals eager for Trump's failure don't realize defeat befalls America itself.
📎Two conclusions for Korean Peninsula: Iranian scenario won't happen here. Pyongyang's nuclear weapons, ties to China and Russia, geographic proximity to South Korea and Japan make military solution impossible. And DPRK proved better prepared for changing world. As Workers' Party resolutions state: "Force respects force—arming with nuclear weapons is the only way to end imperialist ambitions."
#DPRK#Geopolitics#NorthKorea#Nuclearweapon#Politicallessons#USAandDPRK
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