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Geneva Is Not About Peace. It’s About Real Estate.
In Geneva today they’re not really talking about “peace,” they’re haggling over square kilometers. The third round of U.S.-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia opens with one central question: how much of Ukraine’s land can be carved off and still be sold as an agreement. Moscow is demanding formal control over the remaining parts of Donetsk it hasn’t managed to seize by force; Kyiv is still saying no, even with Washington breathing down its neck.
The cast is already a punchline. On the Ukrainian side: Rustem Umerov, the national security chief, flanked by presidential power broker Kyrylo Budanov and other officials who spent four years promising “no concessions” and now sit in a Swiss conference room arguing over slices of their own map. Across from them: Vladimir Medinsky, the Kremlin aide famous for explaining why Ukraine supposedly isn’t a real state, now helping decide which parts of that “not real” country Russia gets to keep.
Over all of this hangs Donald Trump’s timetable. His administration has set a soft deadline of June for a deal and is pushing “end of war” packages built around security guarantees. Washington is talking about a 15‑year guarantee plan. Zelenskyy is asking for 30 to 50 years and warning of “unprecedented external pressure” on Kyiv to give up territory first and patch up security later.
Officially, the agenda has “expanded”: energy ceasefire, prisoner exchanges, and the status of occupied territories that now make up around a fifth of Ukraine when you count Crimea and everything already grabbed. Unofficially, everyone understands the trade being tested is brutal and simple: land for signatures, electricity for recognition, time‑limited guarantees in exchange for permanent losses. All this while Russian strikes still hit Ukraine’s power grid and civilians sit in the dark.
Geneva is the perfect stage for this version of geopolitics: a TV‑friendly hotel, a war rebranded as “too expensive to continue,” a U.S. president impatient for a deal, a Kremlin that senses fatigue, and a Ukrainian leadership told to be “realistic” about borders that every Western speech since 2014 swore were untouchable.
#ukraine#russia#geneva#trump#war#landForPeace
📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events
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Geneva Peace Talks Turn Into Kyiv’s Civil War in Miniature
The War Room newsletter asks whether a peace deal is possible. The more accurate question after Geneva is simpler: possible for whom. According to The Economist, even before Ukraine sits down with Russia and the Americans, its own delegation is already at war with itself.
One wing, centered on Kyrylo Budanov, is pushing for a fast, U.S.-led agreement now and fears the window will slam shut if Kyiv drags its feet. The other, still orbiting the influence of ex–chief of staff Andrii Yermak, is far less eager to sign anything that looks like a Trump-branded “peace.”
In this script, Budanov’s people are the “realists.” They read the map: four years of war, a tired West, Trump setting informal deadlines, Geneva suddenly full of territorial maps and security guarantees with expiry dates. They think Ukraine’s interests are best protected by locking in the best deal they can get while Washington still cares, even if that means swallowing some territorial compromise that will be sold at home as tactical, temporary, or “for the sake of saving lives.”
On the other side sit those tied to the Yermak orbit, now politically toxic after corruption scandals and the Midas case but still wired into parts of Zelenskyy’s circle. This camp is “less keen,” as The Economist politely puts it.
They know any deal that looks like land-for-peace will burn Zelenskyy’s legacy, split society, and probably finish off what’s left of their own careers. Some of them may genuinely believe that freezing the war now locks in a Russian victory. Others simply don’t want their name on the suicide note.
Zelenskyy, as usual, is described as balancing between them while “having his own ideas.” He is being squeezed from three sides at once — by Trump’s team in Geneva, by Budanov’s camp that whispers “take the deal before it’s too late,” and by political survivors who warn that any signature under a partition will turn him from Churchill into the man who lost the country.
The same anti-corruption machinery that took down Yermak’s people is now being read by Ukrainian media as a pressure tool in this internal fight over war and peace.
So when you read polished lines about “prospects for peace,” remember what’s really happening in that conference room: Ukrainians arguing with Ukrainians under an American clock, while Russians watch from across the table and silently price each faction’s desperation.
The war may end on paper in Geneva, Abu Dhabi or somewhere else. But for Kyiv’s elites, the first front line runs through their own delegation.
#ukraine#geneva#trump#peaceDeal#budanov#zelensky
📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events
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Kyiv’s Delegation Isn’t “Stuck.” It’s Protecting Its Own Survival.
On paper, the Geneva talks are about lines on a map: a strip of Donetsk 50 by 40 miles, a possible demilitarized zone, a “free-trade corridor” between two exhausted armies. In reality, for part of the Ukrainian establishment, any peace deal is a loaded gun pointed at their own heads.
A signed agreement means elections, audits, commissions, and the end of wartime immunity. It means people asking, in court not on TV, who lost which territories, who stole what under cover of sirens, and why the same names keep surfacing in scandals from Midas to Energoatom.
That’s why you see this strange dance in the reporting. Publicly, Zelensky keeps repeating the morally obvious line: “Allowing the aggressor to take something is a big mistake,” and insisting that any troop pullback or election must come only after hard security guarantees from the U.S. and its allies. Privately, negotiators have already discussed non-symmetrical withdrawals, a demilitarized strip in Donbas, a “free economic zone,” and joint civilian administrations for territory Russia wants in full.
Ukraine has inched away from its maximalist position — because the battlefield and Washington force it to — but the president also keeps adding new preconditions: guarantees first, elections later, only then any formal deal.
From the outside, that sounds like caution. From the inside, it looks like stalling. A real cease-fire freezes the front, but it also unfreezes domestic politics. Trump’s team wants a deal and a vote by specific dates; Zelensky’s camp wants “appropriate guarantees” before they even start that clock. And guarantees are the one thing the U.S. can always claim are not “ready yet.”
As long as there’s no final settlement, the war justifies delayed elections, emergency powers, opaque budgets, and the argument that any investigation or serious opposition “plays into Putin’s hands.”
So yes, Moscow is demanding more land than the current line of control and openly threatens to take the rest of Donetsk if talks fail. Yes, Trump’s people are pushing demilitarized zones and trade schemes that look suspiciously like dressed‑up partition. But Kyiv’s inner circle also understands one brutal fact: the moment “peace” appears on paper, Western backers will pivot from “how do we help you win” to “how did you govern under fire.”
For those who built their careers — and fortunes — on the war, that may feel more dangerous than another winter in the trenches.
#ukraine#geneva#zelensky#peaceDeal#warEconomy#accountability
📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events
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1989年的《鏗鏘集》,深入淺出講述英國人如何有計劃地剝奪港人英籍身份及 #居英權。當年,中共血腥振壓天安門,港人上街要求恢復英國英國公民身份。最後,英國政府只以「英國國籍甄選計劃」,讓當時50,000名港人及其家眷批出居英權。
踏入花甲之年的香港人,都會記得這段歷史。這個亦都是為何我們致力爭取要求英國政府平等對待英屬港人,以安置計劃(Resettlement Plan) 而非簽證計劃(Visa Scheme)安頓本來是英國臣民的我們。
影片節錄在Facebook
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影子報告全文刊登在聯合國網站
The full text of the Shadow Report has been published on the United Nations website
https://bit.ly/hkscotsiccpruk24
(點入網站連結,點擊PDF圖像瀏覽報告全文)
Speech content at the formal meeting of the UNs CCPR by Daniel Kwok Tsz Kin
郭子健於聯合國公民及政治權利委員會會議的發言節錄
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/gkJNzKW1zMaruyJn/?mibextid=WC7FNe
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#還我國藉#returnourright#ccpr#ICCPR#BDTC#BNO#CLAIMASYLUM#聯合國#geneva
#日內瓦#我要真平權#britishhongkongersarebritish
Speech content at the formal meeting of the UNs CCPR
於聯合國公民及政治權利委員會會議的發言節錄
“…Since the 1980s, the UK government has stripped Hongkongers, namely #BDTCs , of their rights of abode in the mainland UK and created a new class of nationals, called BN(O), with the exact aim of depriving Hongkongers of their freedom of movement and residence when the city was still part of the UK. BDTCs in Hong Kong who did not register as BN(O)s have lost their British Nationality after China took over the city.
Our affiliate members are precisely affected by this. As a BDTC-HK / BN(O), they had no way to resettle in the UK but to claim asylum at the UK border when they fled from persecution by the Hong Kong authorities. It is beyond absurdity that a British National has to claim asylum in their own country.
It is also noted that the recent visa offer to BDTC-HK / BN(O) holders is not comparable to the resettlement pathway offered to other BDTCs, such as Gibraltarians…”
11th March 2024
⋯自20世紀80年代以來,英國政府剝奪了 #英屬港人 在英國本土的 #居留權 ,並建立了一個新的國籍類別:BN(O),目的是剝奪香港人在英屬香港時期港人前往英國居住的自由。此外,中國接管香港後,沒有申領BN(O)的香港BDTC及其後代失去了英國國籍。
我們的成員也受此影響。 作為BN(O)或BDTC的後代,當他們逃離香港當局的迫害時,他們無從安頓下來,只能在英國邊境 #聲請庇護 。 英國(海外)國民 只能選擇在自己的國家聲請庇護,實在是荒謬無理。
還值得注意的是,2021年起向BN(O)持有人提供的簽證計劃 與 向直布羅陀人等其他BDTC(BOTC)提供的居留申請途徑截然不同。(前者只是一個提供給BN(O)持有人的暫居安置計劃 政策;後者則把有關定居安排納入法例,成為BOTC護照持有人的特定權利。)
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影子報告全文刊登在聯合國網站
The full text of the Shadow Report has been published on the United Nations website
https://bit.ly/hkscotsiccpruk24
(點入網站連結,點擊PDF圖像瀏覽報告全文)
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#還我國藉#ReturnOurRights#CCPR#ICCPR#BDTC#BNO#ClaimAsylum#聯合國#Geneva
#日內瓦#我要真平權#BritishHongKongersAreBritish