🚀 U.S. March CPI Expected to Rise Amid Ongoing Iran Conflict
The market widely anticipates that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March will increase by 3.4%, surpassing last month's 2.4%, marking the largest year-on-year rise in two years. According to Jin10, during past oil market shocks, the most likely commodities to see price hikes include aviation fuel, steel, aluminum, natural gas, fertilizers, and plastics. Industries reliant on these materials are already feeling the strain. The ongoing Iran conflict, which has lasted several weeks, has shifted concerns from the initial oil price surge to the compounded effects of a prolonged conflict. For many economists, the most alarming aspect is not the immediate issues but the "aftershocks" that may emerge months or even years later. JPMorgan's CEO has referred to inflation as a potential "fly in the ointment" that could undermine stock market returns in 2026. Harvard University professor and former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff recently discussed an overlooked impact of the war: the increased military spending's effect on the already strained U.S. budget deficit. He noted the risk of soaring bond yields, which could harm the stock market and affect U.S. affordability. Rogoff also mentioned that the current supply disruptions caused by the Iran conflict are sufficient to keep oil prices elevated for a year.
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🚀 STOCKS | Citic Securities Predicts A-Share Market Recovery Amid Improved Conditions
On April 12, Jin10 reported that Citic Securities released a research note indicating a recovery trend in the A-share market this week. According to Jin10, this improvement is attributed to enhanced market risk appetite, liquidity, and fundamentals. Looking ahead, while the pace of growth may slow, the market is expected to continue its upward trajectory in the short term, with medium-term risks posed by sustained high oil prices. April is anticipated to see a return to fundamentals, with a focus on first-quarter reports and identifying promising industries. Industry allocation should center on sectors with high first-quarter prosperity, marginal fundamental improvements, and those benefiting from policy, low allocation levels, and seasonal demand. Key sectors to watch include resources (gold, energy metals, aluminum, minor metals), AI (optical communication, fiberglass, gas turbines), lithium batteries (battery and lithium materials), oil transportation, chemical raw materials, brokerage firms, coal, general equipment, infrastructure construction, and service consumption.
#STOCKS#Ashare#MarketRecovery#CiticSecurities#Liquidity#RiskAppetite#Fundamentals#OilPrices#IndustryAllocation#Resources#Gold#EnergyMetals#Aluminum#MinorMetals#AI#OpticalCommunication#Fiberglass#GasTurbines#LithiumBatteries#BatteryMaterials#LithiumMaterials#OilTransportation#ChemicalRawMaterials#Brokerage#Coal#GeneralEquipment#InfrastructureConstruction#ServiceConsumption