🚀 PRECIOUS METALS | U.S. Inflation and Fed Rate Cut Expectations Impact Gold Prices
On April 13, Jin10 reported that a research note from CITIC Securities highlighted the significant rise in U.S. overall inflation for March, driven by soaring oil prices, while core inflation remained moderate. According to Jin10, CITIC Securities anticipates minimal risk of secondary inflation in the U.S. and suggests that April's CPI may continue to show elevated growth due to compensatory increases in rental inflation. If oil prices decline slowly, U.S. CPI could remain above 3% year-on-year for the rest of the year.
CITIC Securities also forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve within the year, which may lead to a weaker U.S. dollar in the near term. This scenario could create liquidity-driven recovery opportunities for gold prices. Additionally, U.S. equities might benefit from improved risk appetite, while U.S. Treasury yields may lack sufficient downward momentum due to economic fundamentals.
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🚀 Fed Rate Cut Expectations Collapse as April Hold Probability Stays at 98.4%
Key TakeawaysFederal Reserve expected to hold rates in April (98.4% probability).Only 1.6% chance of a rate hike next meeting.June outlook: 96.8% probability of no change.Markets pricing “higher-for-longer” policy stance despite inflation data.Markets Fully Price in April Rate PauseAccording to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged in April, with probabilities holding steady at 98.4% even after the latest CPI release.The likelihood of a 25 basis point hike stands at just 1.6%, indicating minimal expectation of further tightening in the near term.June Outlook Also Signals Policy StabilityExpectations for June remain similarly stable:96.8% probability of no rate change1.5% probability of a 25 bps rate cut1.7% probability of a rate hikeThis suggests markets see limited policy movement over the next two meetings, despite ongoing inflation concerns.CPI Data Fails to Shift Rate ExpectationsEven with March CPI showing a sharp increase driven by energy prices, rate expectations remain largely unchanged.This reflects market belief that:Inflation spike is energy-driven and potentially temporaryCore inflation remains relatively containedThe Fed is unlikely to react immediately to short-term volatilityHigher-for-Longer Narrative StrengthensThe data reinforces a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment:No imminent rate cuts priced inLimited probability of further hikesPolicy expected to remain restrictive but stableMarket ImplicationsFor financial markets:Dollar and yields remain supportedRisk assets (crypto, equities) face macro headwindsLiquidity conditions stay relatively tightThe Fed is now firmly in a wait-and-see mode, with policy decisions likely to depend on:Future inflation trends (especially core CPI)Energy price stabilityBroader economic growth dataUnless inflation broadens beyond energy, markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady through at least mid-2026.
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