Alpha updates. 🪓

Sentiments so bearish that 'Bitcoin bear market' hits 100/100 on google trends. The last time this term peaked was June 2022 at 34/100, five months later Bitcoin bottomed at $16K in November.

ETHBTC just broke its bearish trendline and the retest is looking solid. If it holds above this zone, we could see some upside.

GM to the most important economic week… let’s get to what’s coming. Tuesday: JOLTS data will give a clearer picture of how strong or weak the labor market really is. Wednesday: All eyes on the Fed decision, followed by Powell’s press conference, which could shift market direction within minutes. With an 86% chance of a 25 bps cut, Wednesday is shaping up to be the most critical day Thursday: Jobless claims will either support or challenge the current slowdown narrative.

ETHEREUM JUST FLIPPED VISA + MASTERCARD Ethereum is on pace to settle nearly $6 TRILLION in stablecoin volume this quarter alone and Q4 isn’t even over. Market Caps: • Visa: $640B • Mastercard: $498B • Ethereum: $365B Think long term.. the network with a smaller market cap is already doing more heavy lifting than the financial giants. And don't forget Ethereum isn’t just payments.

Every year, Bitcoin spends an average of 166 days in negative territory. In 2025, it has already accumulated 171 negative days👀

Is Inflation Heating Up Again? And Why Is the Fed Still Comfortable Cutting Rates? September’s data sent mixed signals, Headline - PCE climbed to 2.8%, its highest in almost a year. While core PCE, the one the Fed actually focuses on slipped to 2.8% instead of rising to 2.9%. So on the surface, inflation looks hotter… but underneath, it’s still cooling. That’s exactly why the Fed can continue with rate cuts. They don’t judge policy on one month of noise, they look at the broader direction. And right now, the direction shows core inflation steadily moving lower and economic momentum slowing just enough to reduce price pressures. Inflation expectations are still stable which gives the Fed even more confidence to shift its focus toward supporting growth rather than tightening further.

24-Hour Liquidation Heatmap Currently, the main short position liquidity is concentrated around 92,500

BitMine Now Holds 3% of ETH. The funny thing in this story is that Ethereum stayed for 3 centuries at a price below $3,000.. But for some reason, Bitmine's current average purchase price is at $3,900! The company's investment so far is at a loss of $2.8 billion.

Bitcoin’s price action is starting to look interesting again, despite the rebound back to 84K, the spot market hasn’t really shown up. Spot sellers are still dominating, and they didn’t contribute much to this bounce. Instead, it’s the futures market that has been driving the entire move. In fact, over the last two days, the heaviest selling pressure has come from Binance and Coinbase, yet even futures which led the pump are now showing early signs of fatigue. Even ETFs aren’t showing any real demand right now in fact, we’ve seen outflows over the last two days. So the big question is: How long can this rally continue without real spot demand stepping in?

Coinbase’s open payment protocol x402 hits $60 million in transactions. AI Agents are now started entering the payments industry with full force. For the first time ever, autonomous agents are paying for APIs, data, cloud resources, and on-demand services without human intervention, using crypto rails. What we’re witnessing right now is likely just the beginning of a massive revolution in how money moves across networks.

In the last 30 days, Buyback Season has been heating up. Across top protocols, a massive $183M+ has been spent on buybacks and three names dominate the leaderboard: • HYPE: $82.89M The biggest buyback program in the entire market, powered entirely by protocol fees. • ASTER: $52.88M Strong, consistent buybacks backed by solid revenue flows. • PUMP: $21.25M The only protocol doing 100% revenue buybacks.

Federal Reserve has officially ended Quantitative Tightening after 3 years. The Fed has stopped shrinking its balance sheet. In total, they reduced $1.6T in Treasuries and $600B in MBS during QT. Now instead of cutting the balance sheet, the Fed will start buying T-bills to keep banking system reserves stable which basically means slow, stealth liquidity support. Now there are 2 important dates in December 9 Dec: FOMC Meeting Markets are pricing an 87% probability of a 25 bps rate cut. 18-19 Dec: BOJ MPM Bank of Japan may raise rates from 0.5% to 0.75%. This is huge because Japan is the world’s funding market and tightening here affects global liquidity flows.