Alpha updates. 🪓

BTC Spot Trading Is Finally Waking Up Bitcoin’s been bleeding since Oct 6, and over-leveraged traders just got wiped out, almost $5B OI vanished on Binance triggering massive liquidations. But here’s the important part: spot trading volume is rising exactly as leverage gets wiped out. This means money is rotating from leveraged bets to actual spot buying. If this flow continues, any recovery from here will likely be stronger and more stable than the last few weeks.

0 out of 30 indicators for a bull market peak... and not a single one has worked! And BTC is down ~35% from its ATH. Imagine every so-called “Foolproof Model” getting destroyed as if the market is laughing at them in broad daylight... Does this mean the model has changed? Or we haven’t even hit the ATH yet? Or that all the indicators were just empty talks… created only to mislead retailers? One signal is clear from the market so far: Crypto doesn’t move according to models… but according to the madness of liquidity and demand.

Compared to previous years, spot volumes have almost vanished as the chart shows. The orange area represents futures trading, while the purple reflects spot Decrease in trading volumes in the futures market is something to be worried

Bottom confirmed at Alien Abduction Zone

Despite the market conditions, miners aren’t showing any real selling pressure even though they’re currently “Extremely Underpaid.” The U.S. alone holds ~40% of global hashrate, with a mining cost of ~$102K per BTC. The global average sits around ~$91K. Miners holding is good for the market… but this situation may not last long if Bitcoin keeps sliding.

With U.S. jobless claims data rise to 232,000 higher than expected, the probability of a Fed rate cut has climbed back above 50%. Next is inflation data, if it stays under control or moves further down toward the 2-2.5% range, the chances of a rate cut could…

Bitcoin long/short ratio on Binance is at its highest level this cycle. Longs continue to buy the dip with leverage, and continue to get liquidated. Watch for traders to capitulate, which could set the stage for a stronger recovery. Yesterday there were 4 long bets for every short. After the flush, the long/short ratio has dropped to 2.3 but the imbalance is still massive.

The Bitcoin capitulation indicator has spiked to a new All-time high. The last time it capitulated this hard, the price surged around 50%.However, this momentum shift does not occur overnight, a sustained market recovery typically takes several weeks to unfold.

Friday brainstorming session for next week's 'ORGANIC' market movements 🌚

🚨 JPMorgan Issues Major Warning on MicroStrategy. Global index provider MSCI is considering a new rule that would exclude companies whose crypto assets make up more than 50% of their total assets and this directly targets MicroStrategy. If MSTR gets removed from MSCI indices, passive funds will be *forced to sell*, triggering an estimated $2.8B outflow. If other index providers follow the same rule, total outflows could jump to $11.6B. MSTR has dropped 40%+ in the past month, falling even more than Bitcoin. Its market cap is around $51B, while its BTC holdings are worth $56B, and this gap may widen if index removal kills institutional demand. MSCI’s final decision is expected before January 15, 2026.👀

As per the 4-year cycle, Bitcoin has 3 bull years and the 4th year is the bear. All the people calling for the 4-year cycle to end… please show me where the 3rd green year is in this cycle?