Alpha updates. 🪓

Between 83,500-81,900, there are over $75 million in spot buy orders on Binance and coinbase

November Crypto Trading Volume Hits 5-Month Low As per the data from The Block, November saw a major cooldown in crypto activity: - Centralized exchanges: Monthly trading volume dropped to $1.59 trillion, down 26.7% from October, the lowest since June. - Decentralized exchanges: Volume fell to $397.78 billion, continuing the broader slowdown. Also recorded significant fund outflows, reflecting reduced institutional participation during the month. Overall, November marked one of the quietest months for trading this year.

Coinbase premium has turned positive This indicates that Strong buying pressure in the U.S. market, Increased institutional or regulated capital inflows, Ample U.S. dollar liquidity and optimistic investor sentiment. Overall? A positive Coinbase Premium = U.S. money flowing in.

Strange that ct showing all kinds of data like 1064 days bull-cycle over, charts & TA to justify market sell off but everyone missed these two dates that matches perfectly with the crash and reversal. On 29 Oct, Powell said "chances of a December rate cut were low." And exactly from that moment, Bitcoin started crashing straight from $115K down to $80K, brutal 30% crash without a single bounce or relief rally. Then comes 21 November, New York Fed President John Williams, said: “There is room for a rate cut in the near term.” Immediately, December’s rate-cut probability shot back above 85%. And Bitcoin? It marked its exact local bottom at $80K on the same date 21 Nov. From that bottom, BTC recovered 13% so far within just one week. Are these statements just coincidences… or is someone in the background pulling the strings ?

Exchange inflows just hit their highest levels in years. In past, every time we have seen such extreme spikes, inflows sharply cool off afterward. In March exchange Inflow peak, then through April, inflows gradually dropped while BTC consolidated near the lows. By late April to May, Bitcoin started a strong rally. We’re seeing a somewhat similar setup now. If November’s inflow peak starts to drop from here, December likely becomes a consolidation month and January can turn strong. But don't forget November has not marked the top yet, If inflows don’t come down, that’s a problem. High and sustained inflows = potential sell pressure = downside risk for BTC. For now, this is a “wait for the inflow rollover” setup. Trend flips only when inflows start cooling off.

Market just witnessed the largest wave of Open Interest decline in this entire cycle. This drop reflects how aggressively overleveraged positions were wiped out, triggering a massive round of liquidations. Since Q2 2024, we’ve already seen three major liquidation flushes, first a 30% wipeout, then 35%, and now a massive ~40% flush, the biggest so far. Interestingly, a clear pattern has emerged: every time OI sees a major decline, the following quarter sets new highs, and Bitcoin’s price has consistently followed that trajectory. If this pattern repeats again, the next quarter could see both OI and Bitcoin price pushing into new high territory.

Tether bought more gold than all central banks in the past quarter.

Market Watch For the first time since the drop, we’re finally seeing clear reversal candles, strong divergence, and a real slowdown in sellers’ momentum. Even ETF flows have turned net-positive for two straight days. But the question remains: is this a real trend reversal or just another dead-cat bounce? Right now, the entire market is being controlled by two key levels: 1- 98K, The Make-or-Break Zone This is the most crucial level on the chart. If Bitcoin closes a weekly candle above 98K, the broader uptrend resumes. If not, then every bounce from here is simply another “attempt” inside a continuing downtrend. 2. 87K - Medium Support This level offers decent rebounds, but it’s not strong enough to flip the overall trend. It can slow the fall, not reverse it. TOP HEADLINES • Upbit suffers $37 million hack on Solana assets, halts withdrawals. • America’s fifth-largest bank US Bancorp tests stablecoin on Stellar. Altcoin Update • Solana Moves to Reduce SOL Inflation Again, New SIMD-0411 Proposal Filed

Maybe next year...

U.S. PPI & Core PPI data drops in 1 hour. Expected (YoY): Core PPI: 2.7% If the data comes in hotter than expected, rate-cut odds drop. If it comes in as expected or cooler, the soft-landing narrative holds and rate-cut odds go up.

Rate-cut momentum is back on the table. New York Fed President Williams, one of Powell’s key allies says there is room for a rate cut ‘in the near term.’ December rate cut probability jumps to 71%.

Short-Term Investor SOPR: Re-entering the Panic Selling Zone Earlier in April, we saw a similar pattern short-term entrants rushed in due to FOMO, then panic-sold at a loss… and right after that, the market snapped back with a strong technical rebound. Currently, the short-term SOPR also hits the similar "panic selling phase" once again.👀