🚀 STOCKS | BlackRock CIO Warns of Potential Downgrade in Stock Earnings Due to Middle East Conflict
Helen Jewell, BlackRock's International Chief Investment Officer for Fundamental Equities, has indicated that the ongoing Middle East conflict could necessitate a reduction in stock earnings expectations. According to Jin10, Jewell noted that current earnings forecasts for this year remain high, ranging from 15% to 18%, suggesting significant room for downward adjustments. She expressed skepticism about the stability of earnings predictions in the consumer sector, particularly given the impact of interest rates and inflation stemming from the Middle East situation.
Preliminary signs indicate potential changes in earnings expectations. After weeks of analysts raising forecasts, Citigroup's U.S. Earnings Momentum Index turned negative last Friday, with downgrades outnumbering upgrades by the largest margin in nearly a year. Despite this, analysts' predictions remain optimistic amid high uncertainty and rising price pressures. Compiled data shows that the market generally expects the S&P 500's earnings per share to grow by 16% this year, marking the strongest performance since 2021.
The first-quarter earnings season is set to officially begin next week. Jewell highlighted that the potential for earnings growth in energy and materials stocks is offset by the downside risks in industries such as aviation, suggesting that overall earnings will remain relatively stable.
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🚀 STOCKS | Galaxy Securities Highlights Opportunities Amid Rising Oil Prices
On April 12, Galaxy Securities released a report noting that March's Producer Price Index (PPI) turned positive year-on-year, driven by high oil prices and ongoing policy efforts. According to Jin10, the report emphasizes the potential for profit recovery in China's A-share market, particularly in upstream sectors.
The report identifies several investment opportunities. Firstly, it suggests focusing on energy and alternative demand sectors, including coal, coal chemicals, new energy, shipping ports, and oil and gas. Additionally, there is potential for recovery in the non-ferrous metals sector, including precious and minor metals.
Secondly, the report highlights defensive assets such as finance (banks), utilities, and transportation. Thirdly, it points to technology innovation and self-sufficiency sectors, including power equipment, energy storage, semiconductors, computing power, and communication equipment. In the consumer sector, it suggests focusing on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries, food and beverages, and household appliances.
The report also notes that if there are signs of easing in ongoing conflicts, there could be significant recovery opportunities in previously oversold sectors.
#GalaxySecurities#OilPrices#ProducerPriceIndex#ProfitRecovery#AShareMarket#UpstreamSectors#EnergySector#AlternativeDemand#Coal#NewEnergy#ShippingPorts#OilAndGas#NonFerrousMetals#PreciousMetals#DefensiveAssets#Finance#Utilities#Transportation#TechnologyInnovation#SelfSufficiency#PowerEquipment#EnergyStorage#Semiconductors#ComputingPower#CommunicationEquipment#ConsumerSector#Agriculture#FoodAndBeverages#HouseholdAppliances#RecoveryOpportunities