🎓 ICEUR School of Political Forecasting

Dealing with a Messy World We tend to believe that a once orderly and reliable world is now coming apart before our eyes. Planning and forecasting seem increasingly elusive — anything, it appears, can happen at any moment. Even weather and climate feel less predictable than they once did. In such a context, offering training in political forecasting can seem close to a mission impossible. And yet, while the amount of uncertainty — of “noise” — may well have increased, the fundamentals of practical reasoning have not. We still act under uncertainty in familiar ways. We assume it will rain later today and, encouraged by the forecast, take an umbrella. We believe that the Fidesz government under Viktor Orbán may be losing its capacity to deliver, and we find support for this belief in opinion polls. In both cases, we act not on certainty, but on what appears most likely. This is precisely where modelling tools such as GeNIe 5.0 come into play. They do not eliminate uncertainty; rather, they help us structure it. By systematically confronting assumptions with data, they allow us to refine our judgments, update our expectations, and — crucially — learn from past mistakes. GeNIe 5.0 is neither a magic wand nor a crystal ball — and certainly not a prophecy carved in the stone of Maya temples. But it does offer something more realistic and ultimately more valuable: a way to reintroduce a measure of order into a noisy world — not by denying uncertainty, but by reasoning through it.

Can Forecasting Be Taught? Effective forecasting rests on two essential pillars: human judgment and computational modeling - what one might call brainware and software, or more simply, flesh and skeleton. Neither is sufficient on its own. It is their interaction that produces robust foresight. In our programs, the “flesh” is embodied by an international faculty of leading experts. Their disciplinary diversity fosters rigorous debate, critical reflection, and a form of structured collective intelligence that challenges assumptions and refines insight. This human expertise is paired with an analytical “skeleton”: - GeNIe Modeler, developed by BayesFusion. This technology is used by organizations such as RAND, Google, and multiple Ministries of Foreign Affairs across the English-speaking world. It enables participants to construct, test, and refine probabilistic models of complex systems. We have applied this tool extensively in our own forecasting work and are officially mandated by BayesFusion to integrate it into our training. What sets our programs apart is their strong practical orientation: Participants do not merely learn analytical frameworks - they actively build and stress-test models, bridging theory and application. The result is a distinctive learning experience that transforms analysis into actionable foresight.

Could the outcome of the election in Hungary have been anticipated? From intuition to probabilistic modeling with GeNIe 5.0 - If you look only at polls - no. - If you look at the system of factors - yes. Economy, candidate strength, mobilization, turnout, urban shifts - each of these signals alone explains nothing. But together, they change the probability. This is the logic of Bayes: we don’t guess outcomes - we update our estimates. At some point, “unlikely” becomes “most likely”. And that is no longer intuition — it’s a model.

War and Propaganda | Dr. Stephen Norris A short interview with Stephen Norris, Professor of History, on his research and upcoming lecture at ICEUR. In this conversation, he explains how propaganda evolves — from the Russian Empire to the Soviet period and modern Russia — and why cinema and cultural narratives play a key role in shaping political thinking and war. 📅 Lecture — April 29 as part of the course “Battlefield Diplomacy: The Global Impact of the Ukraine War“

Modern diplomacy no longer happens in meeting rooms and formal receptions — everything has changed dramatically over the past 20 years. Today, the Prime Minister of Hungary, a country that is part of both the EU and NATO, can call the President of Russia in the middle of the war in Ukraine and offer cooperation — and such decisions have direct political consequences, including the loss of power. Understand probable futures as history unfolds. Examine how military activities and carrot-and-stick interaction are merging into a new kind of diplomacy, and learn how artificial intelligence can enhance your own analytical work. The ICEUR-School Spring Course begins in one week. Secure your place now.

Battlefield Diplomacy. The Global Impact of the Ukraine War This is not just a course on the Ukraine war. It’s about the new logic of global politics. European education — no relocation. Analysis, forecasting, real experts. 2 months — and you’re inside the international environment. 📍 Starts April 20 👉https://iceur-school.at/courses/battlefielddiplomacy/en

Dear colleagues, We are pleased to present our upcoming Spring semester: Battlefield Diplomacy The Global Impact of the Ukraine War The program will begin in just three weeks — on April 20. As always, the course will be conducted in two languages: Russian and English. Meet the lecturers Show Schedule ____________________ - For those who may find it difficult to pay the full amount at once, the fee can be split into two installments without losing the discount. - Students receive a 50% discount. The upcoming ICEUR Spring Course explores the origins of the emerging world order and seeks to identify its key structures and dynamics. Responding to growing global uncertainty, the course follows the ICEUR School philosophy by combining empirical, real-world analysis with Bayesian reasoning as a practical, computer-assisted approach to decision-making under uncertainty. Participants will be introduced to the AI-supported platform Bayes Fusion GeNIe 5.0, which enables transparent, structured, and defensible modeling of complex systems. The software is designed to handle both uncertainty and complexity while remaining accessible—even for students without a background in advanced mathematics. The course is open to anyone interested in gaining a deeper understanding of global transformation processes and in uncovering the underlying logic behind what often appears to be chaotic or irrational developments.

🎥“No one wants to see bombs, but there was no other option.” We are publishing an excerpt from an interview with Hossein Kermani — a researcher in political communication and professor at the University of Vienna. In this video, Kermani reflects on the political crisis in Iran and explains why, in his view, many Iranians no longer believe that peaceful reforms are possible. According to him, Iranian society has spent years trying different paths to achieve change — from public protests and civic activism to participation in elections. However, the systematic suppression of even small demonstrations and the continued rejection of reform demands have led many people to feel that there are almost no alternatives left. Kermani also discusses the possible consequences of the current crisis and the chances for political change in the country. Hossein Kermani is a professor at the University of Vienna and a lecturer at the ICEUR School. He will also participate in the new ICEUR summer semester starting in late April.

Military Diplomacy and the Return of Regional Wars At first glance, it may seem that we have entered an era in which the world’s superpowers can act with near impunity. Yet the ongoing military intervention in Iran shows that even the most powerful states operate within significant constraints. 1️⃣ Regional limits The conflict is likely to remain regional. Russia, though formally aligned with Tehran, lacks both the capacity — and perhaps the willingness — to provide meaningful support. Moscow may quietly hope for a geopolitical trade-off — Ukraine in exchange for Iran — rather than risk deeper entanglement. China, meanwhile, continues to cultivate the image of a peace-loving great power while applying gradual pressure on Taiwan. Neither Moscow nor Beijing appears inclined to escalate the situation into a global confrontation. At the same time, the strike on Iran may embolden other regional actors. If Washington no longer prioritizes its role as a global peacemaker, long-suppressed rivalries elsewhere could resurface. We may witness multiple, parallel regional conflicts — not a single world war, but simultaneous expressions of a more permissive strategic climate. 2️⃣ Temporal constraints Time is another limiting factor. A prolonged military engagement would weigh heavily on domestic politics. No U.S. administration can comfortably approach midterm elections amid an open-ended conflict. At the same time, political leadership may feel compelled to demonstrate a more favorable outcome than what critics once labeled “the worst treaty ever” — referring to the nuclear agreement concluded under the Barack Obama administration. 3️⃣Limits of scale Scale presents its own constraints. With the United States unwilling to deploy large numbers of ground troops — and with “system change” declared as the objective — Washington and Israel would have to rely heavily on internal unrest within Iran. Yet this reliance inherently limits the use of overwhelming force: a reckless bombing campaign would undermine the very domestic uprising required for political transformation. Conversely, Iran’s capacity to inflict sustained strategic damage on Israel — let alone the United States — remains limited. This asymmetry further reinforces the conflict’s contained character. 4️⃣A shifting global framework On the global level, the normative framework of international politics is changing. The post–Cold War aspiration toward peaceful conflict resolution has lost much of its traction. In its place emerges a form of military diplomacy — where force is used not as a last resort, but as a calibrated instrument of negotiation. The emerging order is not one of unlimited superpower dominance. Rather, it is an order of constrained coercion — where power is exercised within political, regional, and strategic boundaries.

The Second ICEUR Semester — Successfully Completed! We are truly delighted to share that the diploma ceremony for graduates of the course “Regional Impact of the New World Order” has taken place. This marks the second semester of the ICEUR School of Political Forecasting — and we are genuinely proud that everything came together successfully. Finally! Despite a complex international environment, demanding schedules, and participants joining from different time zones, the program was completed and our graduates received their well-deserved diplomas. Diplomas were awarded on behalf of the Austrian Federal Ministry for European and International Affairs by Thomas Mühlmann, Head of the Department for Eastern Europe and Turkey. Diplomas were also presented by Vice President of ICEUR and Founder of the ICEUR School, Prof. Hans-Georg Heinrich, who emphasized the importance of analytical rigor and probabilistic thinking in times of global turbulence. For us, this is not just the end of a semester — it is another step forward in the development of ICEUR as an international educational platform. ▶️ The ceremony video is available hier.

Four Years of War in Ukraine An analytical video series by ICEUR As the war in Ukraine continues, its deeper strategic roots are increasingly viewed not as a product of short-term political decisions, but as the result of long-standing geopolitical and imperial thinking. At the center of this logic lies Ukraine. The ICEUR analytical series examines the war not only through military events, but through the strategic, institutional, and historical frameworks that shaped it. As part of this series, we continue publishing selected lecture fragments on YouTube as analytical snapshots. 🎥Lecture #6. Fragment. — Robert Müller Ukraine’s Strategic Importance: Why Russia Without Ukraine Is Not an Empire This video presents a fragment of a lecture by Robert Müller, Austrian Ambassador to Ukraine, reflecting on why Ukraine occupies a central place in Russian strategic thinking. The lecture revisits one of the most frequently cited geopolitical formulations — that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire — and places it in a broader historical and institutional context. The discussion traces this logic from the Tsarist period through the Soviet Union and into post–Cold War Russia, emphasizing continuity rather than rupture. The lecture focuses on: — Ukraine’s demographic and political weight in the Soviet system — The persistence of imperial strategic logic beyond specific leaders — Why Ukraine is perceived as a structural pivot, not a peripheral issue — The significance of 2014 and the qualitative escalation in 2022 — What this reveals about Russia’s understanding of power and status This fragment invites viewers to look beyond immediate battlefield developments and consider the deeper strategic assumptions that continue to shape the war — and the European security order more broadly.