Politico

U.S. officials have to work with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu as they try to contain the Israel-Hamas war, but some are starting to wonder if he’s really in charge. Netanyahu is trying to stay in office and avoid prison on corruption charges, two linked desires that have long made him vulnerable to the demands of far-right members of his governing coalition. Now, an Israeli Supreme Court ruling against his effort to overhaul the judiciary may make him even more susceptible. The far-right figures — notably ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir — have deep anti-Palestinian views and are resistant to U.S. proposals, which they consider too friendly to Palestinians. If they abandon Netanyahu’s coalition, he could lose his prime ministership.

Biden officials are creating plans for the U.S. to respond to what they’re increasingly concerned could expand from a war in Gaza to a wider conflict in the Middle East, according to four officials familiar with the matter. All were granted anonymity to tell us about sensitive, ongoing national security discussions. The developments are perilous not just for the region but also for Joe Biden’s 2024 reelection chances. He entered office with vows to end wars. Now he’s spending the end of his first term as the West’s champion for the defense of Ukraine and a key enabler of Israel’s retaliation against Hamas. Foreign policy isn’t expected to be the top campaign issue for voters. But still, 84% of Americans are either very or somewhat concerned that the U.S would be drawn into the Middle East conflict, according to a Quinnipiac poll in November. And with each passing month, more and more Americans fear the Biden admin is offering too much material support to Ukraine.

What else you should know: ▶ICYMI: Israel’s Supreme Court struck down a key component of Netanyahu’s contentious judicial overhaul yesterday, delivering a landmark decision that could reopen the cracks in Israeli society that were happening before the war against Hamas began. ▶An explosion in Beirut allegedly killed the top Hamas official who led their West Bank operations. If Israel was behind the attack, it could mark a major escalation in the war. (Lebanon’s state-run news agency said it was carried out by an Israeli drone, but Israeli officials declined to comment.) ▶2024 has been dubbed the biggest election year in history worldwide: there are races in 60+ countries representing half the world population. Here are the global elections Americans should know about this year.

Welcome to a new year 👋 Several members of the Senate Intelligence Committee are headed to the Middle East this week, where they plan to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. The New York Democrat said she has two goals for the trip: Find out how much of a threat Hamas still is and what it will take to eventually end the war.

For President Biden, navigating the nearly two-year-old war in the middle of a tough election campaign will prove tricky at best. Foreign policy isn’t the top 2024 issue for voters, but Biden’s handling of what’s happening in Israel and Ukraine has hurt his already low approval ratings. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, the leading GOP presidential contender, is already exploiting the perception that events overseas are spinning out of control. Read the full story

With foreign aid to Ukraine in serious jeopardy, the U.S. and E.U. are quietly shifting their focus from supporting Ukraine’s goal of total victory over Russia to improving its position in an eventual negotiation to end the war, according to a White House official and a European diplomat based in Washington. Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia. This strategic shift to defense could buy Ukraine the time it needs to eventually force Vladimir Putin into an acceptable compromise. The diplomat told us one thing that could help is the E.U.’s threat of expediting Ukraine’s membership in NATO, since Putin’s believed to be interested in a deal with Washington under which Ukraine will not enter NATO. (The Biden admin continues to maintain publicly that NATO membership is not being negotiated.)

Two other things to know: ▶Venezuela has released 10 Americans as part of a prisoner exchange with the U.S. The deal is likely to draw protests in some corners for further incentivizing hostile governments to take Americans hostage. It’s also likely to fuel charges from Biden’s detractors that his admin is too lenient in its deals with U.S. adversaries. ▶The Senate wrapped up 2023 without action on aid for Ukraine and Israel or border security policy. While leaders Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell issued a rare joint statement touting “encouraging progress” in the talks, we won’t see further action until “early in the new year.”

Lawmakers keep calling for Israel to curb its intensive military operation in Gaza. But they’re using different — and often confusingly vague — phrasing to push for peace. That may be the point. Vague terms make it possible for politicians to accomplish two tasks: advocate for some semblance of peace in the Middle East without completely alienating the United States’ closest ally in the region. But the many phrases — like “sustainable cease-fire,” “mutual and permanent end to the violence,” “immediate de-escalation and cease-fire,” “mutually agreed-upon bilateral humanitarian pause” — run the risk of confusing the general public even more. These calls are complicated by the fact that there’s no internationally agreed-upon definition for a cease-fire. Catch up with National Security Daily on why politicians keep adding caveats to “cease-fire"

Two other stories to know: 👉The Biden admin is “concerned” about Israel’s reported use of white phosphorus in Lebanon two months ago, said National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby. 👉A top Pentagon official is stepping down this month, deepening the gap in confirmed leaders within the Defense Department as Sen. Tommy Tuberville continues his blockade of senior military and civilian nominations. This means both the No. 1 and 2 positions in the DoD’s policy office will be filled with acting officials.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in D.C. and will address all senators and meet with President Joe Biden and House Speaker Mike Johnson tomorrow to make a last-ditch appeal for aid. His visit comes as the Senate deadlocks over border policy — a condition that Republicans added in order to pass billions in aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. Zelenskyy’s arrival underscores the sense of panic gripping the Biden administration. The pot of money Congress authorized to pump Kyiv full of weapons is running out, and a House GOP aide told us “the administration continues to tell us there is no Plan B and they won’t keep transferring weapons to Ukraine without new backfill.” Zelenskyy told a room full of military officers today that Ukraine is the West’s only defense against an imperialist Russia and argued that squabbling in Washington only benefits Vladimir Putin. “Let me be frank with you friends,” said Zelenskyy, “if there’s anyone inspired by unresolved issues on Capitol Hill it is just Putin and his sick clique.”

Friday is upon us 😮‍💨 Here are three stories to know as you head into the weekend: 👉Sen. Tommy Tuberville partially lifted his months-long blockade on more than 400 senior military promotions this week. But many of those officers still can’t move on to their next posting because of his remaining holds on a handful of the highest-level positions. 👉A retired general said Iran has taken the lack of a strong U.S. military response to Red Sea attacks as an invitation to continue aggressive behavior. 👉Only about a third of Americans polled approve of the Biden administration’s response to the Israel-Hamas war, according to a recent survey. Respondents under 30 years old were most critical of Biden of all age groups. The numbers are an ominous sign for President Biden heading into the election year.

Welcome to Wednesday 👋 Here are three stories to know as we reach the mid-point of the week: 👉Israel advocacy organizations have spent roughly 100 times more on advertising via Meta’s social media platforms than pro-Palestinian groups, according to a POLITICO analysis, even as young Americans grow more critical of Israel. 👉The Biden administration is urging Israel to open a second Gaza crossing so more humanitarian aid can reach Palestinians, said U.S. officials and aid group leaders. Israel has so far rebuffed those requests. 👉Four Russian men accused of torturing an American during the invasion of Ukraine have been charged with war crimes, announced the DOJ — a case that’s the first of its kind.