Politico

Establishment Republicans poured millions of dollars into New Hampshire to block avowed MAGA candidate Don Bolduc from becoming the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate. It wasn’t enough. Bolduc won, which means the GOP’s hopes of winning control of the Senate this fall is tied to yet another problematic candidate. Bolduc will face off against Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in the general election. With Bolduc on the ballot, it’s going to be harder for Republicans to flip the seat. Our election forecast rates this race as “Leans Democratic.” In other news: NH Gov. Chris Sununu, the Republican who called Trump “fucking crazy” earlier this year, won his primary. The takeaway: While primaries have largely gone well for Trump, gubernatorial races have been a striking exception. If you want more from yesterday’s primaries in New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Delaware, check out the full highlights.

Folks, welcome to the final primaries of the year 😌 Today’s big race: New Hampshire’s Republican Senate primary. The establishment is backing state Senate President Chuck Morse. His top competitor: Don Bolduc, a far-right ex-Army general and Donald Trump supporter who’s been leading several recent polls. This is yet another race where Democrats are meddling in GOP primaries to secure what they think will be an easier matchup in the general election. This time, Dems are attacking Morse to bolster Bolduc, hoping Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan will have a better chance at defeating the latter in November. But if Morse holds on to win the GOP nomination, New Hampshire could see the knock-down, drag-out battle that political forecasters have long anticipated, with control of the Senate hanging in the balance. We’ll be back tomorrow with an update.

🚨Democrats flipped 2022 on its head last night. The best predictor of the midterms was the special election in New York’s 19th district — and Democrat Pat Ryan won 52-48%. Dems are still widely expected to lose the House in November. But ever since the fall of Roe shook the political landscape, it’s been nothing but one sign after another that Democrats have a shot at bucking expectations come fall. That’s not to say Trump isn’t dominating the midterms. He still is, as evidenced last night in Florida, when Trump favorite Matt Gaetz beat his closest opponent by a whopping 40+ percentage points despite the FBI investigation into whether he paid to have sex with a teenager. In other big Florida news, Dems picked nice guy Charlie Crist – the former GOP governor turned independent turned Democrat – to take on Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis. Turns out electability may be more important to Democrats than Roe. But we’re still rating this race “likely Republican.” We’re hosting a live conversation at noon ET if you’d like a nerdy deep dive about this week’s elections. Otherwise, we’ll be back Sept. 13 to keep you posted on the next competitive primary to watch (hi, New Hampshire Senate).

Come one, come all to another big election day. Up to bat: New York and Florida (plus runoffs in Oklahoma). Watch NY-19. This is one of America’s true tossup seats – and it could predict whether abortion will be the issue that decides control of Congress. Democrat Pat Ryan and Republican Marc Molinaro are squaring off in the biggest House special election since SCOTUS overturned Roe v. Wade. Meanwhile, Florida Dems head into today’s primary with a key question: Who will be the best nominee to take on the seemingly invincible Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis? ➡️ Nikki Fried is hoping she’s the one. Her win would show that Democrats were motivated by the repeal of Roe and her passionate energetic response to take the fight to Republicans. ➡️ If Rep. Charlie Crist wins, it’ll show that his pitch for “decency” and “doing what’s right” was the winning message for Democrats eager to end a lengthy losing streak (Florida hasn’t had a Dem governor in more than two decades). The stakes couldn’t be higher. We’ll be back with an update tomorrow.

Rep. Liz Cheney lost her Wyoming GOP primary to Trump-endorsed Harriet Hageman yesterday, but she’s carved out a new job for herself: ensuring “Donald Trump is never again anywhere near the Oval Office.” She’ll be launching an organization to “educate the American people about the ongoing threat to our Republic, and to mobilize a unified effort to oppose any Donald Trump campaign for president,” her spokesperson said. The new org will serve as Cheney’s primary political vehicle as she considers a presidential run in 2024. Meanwhile, in Alaska: ➡️ Former Gov. Sarah Palin advanced to the general election, along with two other GOP candidates, in the primary for Alaska’s open House seat. ➡️ Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski will take on Trump-pick Kelly Tshibaka in the November general election after the two advanced from an all-party top-four primary yesterday — a first in the state. That’s all for today, folks. We’ll be back on Tuesday, Aug. 23 for the next primaries.

Hello, hello 👋 Welcome to another day of primaries. The first thing you should know: Rep. Liz Cheney’s day of reckoning is upon us. Wyoming Republicans will choose today whether to stick with Cheney — the GOP face of the anti-Trump movement — or nominate another Republican candidate, most likely Trump-endorsed Harriet Hageman. Trump made it his mission to oust Cheney from Congress after she voted to impeach him. Cheney continues to talk about the danger she believes Trump poses to American democracy. Her position is likely to cost Cheney her political career — at least for now. There’s also drama in Alaska in the race to finish out the late GOP Rep. Don Young’s House term with Sarah Palin working to make a comeback after more than a decade away from electoral politics. The race is dividing Alaskans, who remember that Palin pioneered the brand of conservative populism that Trump later perfected — but also that she has a mixed record of public service to the state. We’ll be back tomorrow with an update.

Election deniers had a good night. So did women. But the week belonged to Donald Trump. ICYMI: FBI searched Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home on Monday, leaving with boxes of potentially classified documents. The search is rearranging the midterm election landscape — and its effect showed in last night’s primaries. Following news of the search, Republicans in yesterday’s races rushed to Trump’s defense, including Tim Michels, who tweeted, “If the federal government can do this to a former president, imagine what they can do to you. He added that it was “wrong” for his opponent, Rebecca Kleefisch, “to stay silent.” (Shortly after, Kleefisch tweeted the search was “shocking.”) Michels ultimately clinched the GOP nomination for Wisconsin governor. Trump pick Leora Levy of Connecticut also beat the state party’s endorsed candidate after calling the search an “assault on our freedom and liberty.” Here’s the full list of Trump-endorsed candidates who won last night. In other news: Democrat Becca Balint of Vermont won her House primary. If she’s victorious in the fall, Vermont will finally have sent its first woman to Congress. We’ll be back Tuesday, August 16 for the next primary 👋

We’re back with more primaries today 👋The biggest race to watch is the Republican primary for Wisconsin governor, where the focus is (once again) on whether a Trump pick vs. GOP establishment pick will win. Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch was seen as the nominee-in-waiting and is backed by Mike Pence and former Gov. Scott Walker. But now she’s locked in a tight battle against Trump pick Tim Michels. Whoever wins gets to challenge Gov. Tony Evers – one of the most endangered Democratic incumbents in the country. Another thing on our radar? Vermont’s glass ceiling moment. It’s the only state in the country that’s never sent a woman to Congress (!), but that’s about to change. Here’s what else we’re watching as voters in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin head to the polls today. We’ll be back with an update tomorrow.

Hey there 👋 Results for a few of yesterday’s key primaries are still trickling in but here’s what we know so far. Let’s start with Arizona: ➡️ The matchup is set in the pivotal Senate race that could tilt control of the chamber: Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly vs. Republican Blake Masters. ➡️ GOP voters nominated 2020 election denier Mark Finchem to become the state’s next chief election officer. What else happened? ➡️ Voters blocked an anti-abortion measure in Kansas – a stunning political earthquake that could reshape the midterms and gives hope to abortion rights supporters in other red states. ➡️ In Michigan, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer will face off against conservative commentator Tudor Dixon in one of the most competitive governor’s races this fall. Watch whether abortion shapes the race, with Whitmer going all in on abortion rights while Dixon supports a complete ban with no exceptions for rape or incest. ➡️ Michigan Rep. Peter Meijer, the GOP freshman who voted to impeach Trump over Jan. 6, lost his seat. But two other House Republicans who voted to hold Trump accountable — Jaime Herrera Beutler and Dan Newhouse in Washington state — look to be in better shape. We expect results soon (you can check the latest live numbers here for WA-03 and WA-04.) If you want more takeaways from last night, this is for you. We’ll be back next Tuesday, Aug. 9 for the next big primary day. P.S. Are y’all liking these updates? How can we make this channel more useful to you? Send any suggestions 🧠 and comments to Jan at [email protected]

Folks, it’s another big primary day💥 Voters in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington are headed to the polls to weigh in on major Senate and gubernatorial races as well as a series of battleground House contests. First state to pay attention to: Arizona. ➡️ GOP voters in Arizona will decide who will face Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in what will be one of the most competitive races this cycle. ➡️ Voters will also settle the GOP race for governor, where Trump-backed former TV anchor Kari Lake has led most of the recent public polling. ➡️ Republicans are on the verge of nominating Mark Finchem, a prominent election conspiracy theorist backed by Trump, to become the state’s next chief election officer. Keep an eye on Kansas as well. It’s the first state to put the question of abortion rights directly to voters after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. There’s a lot more we’re watching tonight (here’s the full breakdown). We’ll be back with an update, so stay tuned.

Happy Monday to all. Maryland’s primary results were finalized over the weekend. Here’s what happened in the key governor’s race: First-time candidate Wes Moore beat out a crowded field of notable names (including Tom Perez) to become the Democratic nominee. It’s a remarkable rise for the author and nonprofit exec, who started with nearly no name recognition but is now favored to flip the seat blue and become the state’s first Black governor. He’ll face off against GOP nominee Dan Cox, a state delegate who has “full-throatedly embraced” Trump’s false claims about fraud in the 2020 election. (If you want more details from Maryland, here are the statewide + House results.) We’ll be back Aug. 2 for the next primary day, which features several of the 20 counties that will decide this year’s midterms — like Arizona, Kansas and Michigan 👀

We’ll be back in a few days with an update. It’s a tight competition, and Maryland election officials aren’t counting mail-in ballots until Thursday.