Politico

Previous indictments haven’t hurt Trump in the Republican primary and may have even boosted his polling numbers and donations. But this indictment is on more serious charges — an attack on American democracy. Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election amounted to a conspiracy to defraud the United States and led directly to the deadly Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol, according to federal prosecutors. That may be harder for at least some voters to dismiss than an episode involving hush money to a porn star or holding on to some government documents. Will the latest charges against Trump affect how you vote? Thumbs up for yes. Thumbs down for no.

ICYMI: GOP frontrunner Donald Trump was indicted this week on charges related to his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election. He now faces 78 felony charges across three criminal cases. A fourth ongoing criminal investigation could add more to this tally.

What does this mean for his reelection campaign? Logistically, a judge overseeing a Trump case probably would allow him to continue to travel as he awaits trial. Expect the charges to ignite a long, intense period of pretrial litigation. And there’s nothing legally stopping him from running even if he’s convicted or behind bars. Politically, this will galvanize Republican voters who have so far been unfazed by Trump’s legal entanglements. His 2024 GOP opponents have mostly been coming to his defense after news of the indictment broke. For more, check out our Trump indictment cheat sheet.

ICYMI: 2024 GOP frontrunner Donald Trump was charged with 37 felony counts in connection with his handling of classified documents after he left the White House. 31 one of those counts are for allegedly violating the Espionage Act through “willful retention” of classified records and six counts relate to his alleged effort to obstruct the investigation. Convictions for both types of count almost always lead to a prison sentence.

Chris Christie is making another run for the White House — a long-shot campaign in which the former New Jersey governor will seek to position himself as the field’s most credible critic of Donald Trump. Christie has spent weeks sharpening his attacks on Trump in preparation for his launch, testing a message that he — and he alone in the growing field of 2024 GOP contenders — has the guts and the skill to knock the former president off his perch. The problem for Christie: It was too little, too late when he tried that tactic in 2016. And Republican primary voters don’t seem any more open to it today.

A hard truth for Pence: The fundamentals of this race won't be shaken by his entry. GOP strategists see just 3 lanes in the primary for now. (1) Trump (2) DeSantis (3) Everyone else And that last lane keeps getting thinner as the race gets more crowded.

Mike Pence has officially filed paperwork to run for president, setting up an unprecedented race between a former VP and former president for the GOP nomination. Until Jan. 6, 2021, Republicans knew what they were getting with Pence — a steadfast No. 2, always ready to back up Trump. But Trump’s post-election campaign of lies melted Pence’s broad appeal. The hardcore MAGA base views Pence as a traitor while voters more sympathetic to his defense of democracy have lots of alternatives to choose from — with Sen. Tim Scott and former Ambassador Nikki Haley, in particular, appealing to his traditional white evangelical base.

ICYMI: Sen. Tim Scott also officially announced he’s running for president on the GOP ticket. Our chief elections and polling expert Steve Shepard put him in the “long shots” category. Check out our tracker to see which Republican candidates actually have a chance and what their winning (or losing) paths could look like.

After months of anticipation, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is officially running for president. He filed the paperwork today and plans to announce his candidacy via a live Twitter Space with Elon Musk tonight. DeSantis is now the leading alternative to Donald Trump in the bid for the heart of the Republican Party and is entering the primary with an enormous financial edge. He’ll wage his campaign on two fronts: persuading Republicans that Trump’s baggage is too much for a general election, while attacking President Biden as a weak executive beholden to the left.

Biden faces no shortage of obstacles. His approval ratings hover in the low 40s. Republicans think he’s an “easy target” to unite around. And while Biden isn’t expected to face a serious primary challenge, people have concerns about his age. Biden, who at 80 is already the oldest person to serve as U.S. president, would be 86 at the end of a second term. His entry also comes as former president Donald Trump, who is 76, continues to lead the Republican primary field, though that contest is far from settled. Biden has declared his predecessor an existential threat to the republic and his advisors contend that any Republican who makes it out of the primary — whether it’s Trump or someone else — is likely to have adopted or at least embraced Trump’s MAGA movement that Dems view as extreme and unappealing to average voters.