@LiveHealthy · Post #7240 · 13.06.2025, 02:47
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Источник @willberich · Post #708 · 29 мар.
Что происходит? Рассуждения об инвестициях в ОФЗ по текущим ценам Итак, с депозитами разобрались, с накопительными счетами (НС) – тоже. А что насчет ОФЗ? Ожидания высокой доходности ОФЗ не оправдались. Пока. Взамен в моменте сложилась дилемма: короткие ОФЗ по текущим ценам не так выгодны, как короткие вклады, но на сроки >9 месяцев ОФЗ по текущим ценам выгоднее вкладов. Что делать? ⚠️ Прежде чем рассуждать дальше, напомню: наши личные финансовые и инвестиционные решения должны основываться на наших личных убеждениях, отношению к риску и его оценке. Базовые допущения: ▪️рассуждения приводятся в контексте текущих санкций и ответных мер ▪️речь идет о сохранении денег или об инвестициях, а не о спекуляциях ▪️есть налог на купоны по ОФЗ, но нет налога на %% по депозитам 📍До 1 года Коротких выпусков ОФЗ не так много: на 4, 8 и 10 месяцев. В моменте доходность по ним составляет ок.16-17%, а с учетом налога ок.14-15%. Что ниже коротких депозитов со ставками около 20+%. Кто их тогда покупает (кроме спекулянтов, рассчитывающих на колебания цен)? Например, те, у кого: ▪️нет доверия к банкам/АСВ ▪️есть потребность в подобной диверсификации (например, не получается соблюдать страхуемый лимит в ₽1,4 млн) ▪️есть желание дождаться хороших цен на фондовом рынке, но не сидеть при этом в депозите/НС; ▪️есть уверенность в падении ключевой ставки до 17% или ниже в ближайшее время Для остальных, по идее, депозиты или НС остаются более привлекательными. 📍До 3 лет Вариантов больше – 8 выпусков со сроками от 1 года 5 месяцев до 2 лет 10 месяцев. Доходности где-то 14-15% (после налога 12-13%). В моменте это выше депозитов – там предлагают ниже 12% (хотя есть и редкие исключения). Среднесрочные ОФЗ могут быть интересны тем, кто хочет зафиксировать доходность на этот срок на уровне выше текущих депозитов и уверен в снижении ключевой ниже 15% на горизонте 6-9 месяцев. Или рассчитывает на резкий рост цен на ОФЗ в течение года для их последующей перепродажи. Однако на этом горизонте ОФЗ скорее нужны для диверсификации из-за необходимости учитывать высокую инфляцию и альтернативные доходности (по фондовому рынку). Ведь из-за текущих санкций и макроэкономики деньгам просто некуда выходить из России, а значит они могут в конце концов стимулировать инфляцию и/или перетекать на фондовый рынок. Как это происходит в Иране, который сейчас часто вспоминают как ближайший пример изолированной экономики. 📍От 3 лет Самый широкий выбор и наиболее низкие ставки, в районе 13% и ниже. Из-за ЛДВ налог влияет только на купоны (если держать до погашения), а вкладов на такие сроки чаще всего просто нет. Покупателей ОФЗ заметно меньше, а их ожидания могут быть дополнительно связаны с надеждой на получение долгосрочной доходности на уровне исторической среднерыночной (если все вернется на круги своя). Однако высокая неопределенность, инфляция и слишком длинная «срочность» служат существенными ограничениями для их покупки. Что в итоге делать с ОФЗ, каждый решает самостоятельно. Но в происходящем нам стоит учитывать еще 2 момента: 1️⃣ Клиенты брокера «Универ Капитал» потеряли свои вложения в ОФЗ: их активы были принудительно проданы Национальным клиринговым центром (НКЦ) на открытии рынка в счет погашения задолженности брокера перед НКЦ. Объем безвозвратных убытков составил ок.173,8 млн рублей. Если кратко – это неприятно и неожиданно для тех инвесторов, но законно. Если подробно, то вся история здесь. Сейчас лучше пользоваться крупными брокерами, аффилированными с банками из перечня системно-значимых. Подобные риски от этого не исчезнут, но уменьшатся хотя бы в теории. 2️⃣ Нерезидентов рано или поздно все-таки должны «выпустить» из ОФЗ. Как и когда именно это произойдет, неизвестно. Но этот выход, когда он случится, однозначно повлияет на цену и будет толкать ее вниз (а доходности - вверх). Вероятность получения более высоких доходностей сохраняется, поэтому для тех, кто готов подождать, вклады и НС по-прежнему остаются интересными. А вы сейчас покупаете/купили ОФЗ?👇🏻 #чтопроисходит#инвестиции P.S. Берегите себя и своих близких, а также свои финансы🕊
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@LiveHealthy · Post #7240 · 13.06.2025, 02:47
#advice
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@Entrepreneursquotes · Post #3952 · 03.12.2022, 05:50
#Advice 5 Success Secrets from Jeff Bezos ✏️🌟 Today, looking back to the colossal takeoff of Jeff Bezos, it seems nearly inevitable. The Amazon’s founder was relentlessly seeking to build the most powerful and customer-oriented enterprise ever. But is it only hard work that stands behind this success? Actually, the billionaire employed a handful of wisdoms that helped him achieve the goal. Here are 5 of them: 1. Minimize your regrets When Bezos first came up with the idea of moving from one end of the country to the other, he used a mental exercise called "regret minimization system." It suggests you need to imagine yourself as an 80-year-old and look back at your life. Bezos explains: "I wanted to minimize the number of my regrets. And I knew that at the age of 80 I wouldn't regret trying to do it. I wasn't going to regret my attempt to take advantage of the possibilities of the Internet, which I had predicted a great future for." 2. Find the right opportunity Initially, Bezos planned to set up an online business, not a bookstore. While still working at the investment firm, he heard that Internet usage was growing by 2300% annually. In fact, this figure was fundamentally wrong. The Internet grew by 2,300 times, that is, in reality, 230,000%. But even the erroneous calculations worked out. Bezos was not a big fan of books, but they seemed to him a suitable commodity to make the most of the explosive Internet growth. When Amazon launched in 1994, the catalog of printed books was almost endless and numbered over 3 million titles. That business was well suited for e-commerce. 3. Be obsessed with customers "Many companies are completely customer-oriented. Bezos literally worshipped this philosophy. "Amazon's secret ingredient includes several principles. And the most important of them is a compulsive focus on the client," Bezos said in 2018 during the Washington forum of The Economic Club. He didn't talk about good service. It was more about building a company without which people could not live. "From the very beginning, we have focused on offering customers compelling benefits," the Amazon CEO wrote in 1997. Compelling means clear. Bezos insisted on his team writing a six-page memo and a sample press release for each new product. "At Amazon, we don't do PowerPoint presentations," Bezos once wrote. — Instead, we write memos on six pages with a narrative structure. We read them at the beginning of each meeting in a kind of "classroom"." 4. Make customers’ benefits overweigh all costs When the era of online shopping began, ordering via the Internet was a terrible challenge for both sellers and buyers. Only about a third of households had computers, and they were not very fast. An even smaller number had Internet access, and the sites were shoddily made. Convincing someone to go online and make a purchase was an almost impossible task. To do this, it was necessary to offer the client sufficient advantages: low cost of goods, unlimited product range, and impeccable service. Otherwise, customers would just go to a regular store. Even when Internet access became easier, the question remained relevant: does your website facilitate or improve the lives of customers? If yes, most likely, they will choose you. This was Amazon’s case. 5. Be afraid of customers, not competitors "Don't be afraid of competitors — they're not the ones who bring you money," Bezos once told his team. — Be afraid of customers, because they have the money." In other words, focus on what's valuable for you. Source:- Idea Factory
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@Entrepreneursquotes · Post #3604 · 20.09.2022, 05:20
#Advice 5 Success Secrets from Jeff Bezos ✏️🌟 Today, looking back to the colossal takeoff of Jeff Bezos, it seems nearly inevitable. The Amazon’s founder was relentlessly seeking to build the most powerful and customer-oriented enterprise ever. But is it only hard work that stands behind this success? Actually, the billionaire employed a handful of wisdoms that helped him achieve the goal. Here are 5 of them: 1. Minimize your regrets When Bezos first came up with the idea of moving from one end of the country to the other, he used a mental exercise called "regret minimization system." It suggests you need to imagine yourself as an 80-year-old and look back at your life. Bezos explains: "I wanted to minimize the number of my regrets. And I knew that at the age of 80 I wouldn't regret trying to do it. I wasn't going to regret my attempt to take advantage of the possibilities of the Internet, which I had predicted a great future for." 2. Find the right opportunity Initially, Bezos planned to set up an online business, not a bookstore. While still working at the investment firm, he heard that Internet usage was growing by 2300% annually. In fact, this figure was fundamentally wrong. The Internet grew by 2,300 times, that is, in reality, 230,000%. But even the erroneous calculations worked out. Bezos was not a big fan of books, but they seemed to him a suitable commodity to make the most of the explosive Internet growth. When Amazon launched in 1994, the catalog of printed books was almost endless and numbered over 3 million titles. That business was well suited for e-commerce. 3. Be obsessed with customers "Many companies are completely customer-oriented. Bezos literally worshipped this philosophy. "Amazon's secret ingredient includes several principles. And the most important of them is a compulsive focus on the client," Bezos said in 2018 during the Washington forum of The Economic Club. He didn't talk about good service. It was more about building a company without which people could not live. "From the very beginning, we have focused on offering customers compelling benefits," the Amazon CEO wrote in 1997. Compelling means clear. Bezos insisted on his team writing a six-page memo and a sample press release for each new product. "At Amazon, we don't do PowerPoint presentations," Bezos once wrote. — Instead, we write memos on six pages with a narrative structure. We read them at the beginning of each meeting in a kind of "classroom"." 4. Make customers’ benefits overweigh all costs When the era of online shopping began, ordering via the Internet was a terrible challenge for both sellers and buyers. Only about a third of households had computers, and they were not very fast. An even smaller number had Internet access, and the sites were shoddily made. Convincing someone to go online and make a purchase was an almost impossible task. To do this, it was necessary to offer the client sufficient advantages: low cost of goods, unlimited product range, and impeccable service. Otherwise, customers would just go to a regular store. Even when Internet access became easier, the question remained relevant: does your website facilitate or improve the lives of customers? If yes, most likely, they will choose you. This was Amazon’s case. 5. Be afraid of customers, not competitors "Don't be afraid of competitors — they're not the ones who bring you money," Bezos once told his team. — Be afraid of customers, because they have the money." In other words, focus on what's valuable for you. Source:- Idea Factory
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@doniyorieltss · Post #1718 · 31.08.2023, 14:06
#advice Never take the test with British Council. I will explain later.
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@hayotalks · Post #793 · 09.03.2026, 10:20
#advice Hozir 20 yoshga qaytib, oʻzingizga beradigan 1 ta aniq maslahatni yozib keting 💬 19:00 da esa 30 dan oshgan men sizga 30 yoshga chiqib afsuslanmaslik uchun nimalar qilish kerakligini aytaman.
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@selfdeprules · Post #657 · 19.06.2023, 10:36
#advice Shunaqa ko'rinishda tashimi yoki tekst ko'rinishidami? @selfdeprules
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@selfdeprules · Post #649 · 12.06.2023, 20:43
#advice Assalomu Aleykum! Hozirda ko'pchilik yoshlar o'qishni tugatish arafasida. Va yangi hayotga qadam qo'yishadi. Ishni nazarda tutdim😁😁 Shu sababli 2 yillik tajribamdan kelib chiqib bir nechta gaydlar berishni xohladim. Avvalambor o'qigan sohangiz bo'yicha ish qidiring. O'rtog'im u joyga kiribdi, tanishim biznes boshlabdi, va shunga o'xshagan har xil safsatalarga berilmang. O'z sohangizni ustasi bo'lishga harakat qiling. Hozirda "tanka" bo'lmasa yaxshi ishga kirib bo'lmaydi degan tushuncha mavjud yoshlarda. Afsuski, bu gapga qo'shila olmayman. Chunki shu paytgacha 2ta yaxshi firma, kompaniyada ishlaganman, va ikkalasigayam o'z bilimim bilan kirganman. Shuning uchun siz ham ushbu fikrni miyangizdan chiqarib tashang. Xo'sh ishga kirvotganda nimalarga e'tibor berish kerak? 1. Ofisdagi "discipline", ya'ni intizom. Ish vaqti qanaqa, hamma ishchi o'z vaqtida keladimi, menejerlar har doim ofisda bo'ladimi, shularni "obezatelno" so'rang intervyu vaqtida. 2. "Document" qismi, ya'ni hujjat yuritish qanaqa. Hamma narsa qonuniymi, "otpusk", "dekret" "bolnichniy" lar bormi, o'zi hujjatlashtirish tartibi qanaqaligi haqida biling. 3. Nega vakansiya ochilgan? Ishchi kuchi kamligidanmi yoki kimdir ishdan ketgani uchunmi. Agar 1-si bo'sa bu yaxshi, lekin 2-si bo'sa siz: U odam nega ketgan? Uni kamchiliklari nimalar edi? KPI (key performance indicator), ya'ni samaradorligi qanaqa edi? Qaysi jihatlarini hurmat qilishlar ini so'rang. Ushbu savollarga javob olish siz uchun katta imkoniyatlarni ochadi. Intervyuda, yoki resume qiganda hech qachon bilmagan narsangizni bilaman deb aytmang, keyinchalik bu sizga minusga ishlaydi. Savollaringiz bo'sa bemalol beringiz mumkin. Good luck :) @selfdeprules
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@QuietWorld · Post #8013 · 23.02.2022, 00:24
Believe in yourself. Focus on your dream. Be humble and kind. Let others be themselves and you be you. ☺️🌻 #thoughts#advice @quietworld🍃
@QuietWorld · Post #7955 · 01.12.2021, 16:43
Adab Meminta Tolong: ✅ direct bagitau mau minta tolong apa + “klu ko nda busy la” (lebih sopan lagi ko tambah; “sorry klu ganggu” ✅ klu org tu suda menolak samada secara halus apalagi kalu terang² suda, jwb la "oh nda apa, tq ☺️” Jangan cuba² untuk runding atau paksa secara kasar mahupun halus, belajar hormat hak & keputusan org lain. Mesti dia ada keutamaan lain yg dia perlu selesaikan. Tdk perlu kecil hati. Cukup sekali org tu kata "tidak". Jarang sy nampak org yg tdk tau benda mudah ni kecuali budak² kecik masih belum sekolah atau masih sekolah rendah. Jadi bila sy nampak wujudnya org dewasa yg masih tdk tau benda ni mmg sy rasa mcm mau tepuk dahi 🤦🏻♀️ Kwn² sy yg rapat & sudah lama kenal pun, klu sy blg "sorry nda dpt tlg 🙏" pun tdk pernah la drg paksa sy atau sakit hati sbb sy tdk dpt tolong. pujuk2 sy “tolong ba tolong ba" pun nda walaupun suda kenal lama 😂 biasa yg nda rapat tu yg begitu, sebab tu la nda kn jd rapat dgn sy sbb sy anti sikit org bgitu 😅 #thoughts#advice @quietworld🍃
@QuietWorld · Post #7428 · 20.06.2020, 01:28
“Be friends with everyone.” No, that's a bullshit advice tbh. You don't need to be friends with everyone. Just don't make any enemy. #thoughts#advice @quietworld🍃
@QuietWorld · Post #8166 · 05.12.2022, 01:42
Deko Rumah Masyarakat Cina? Saya tak tau macam nak explain benda ni. Orang Cina selalunya jarang renovate rumah bagi nampak grand atau mewah. Hiasan pun sangat minimum. Asalkan fungsi dengan baik, thats it. Kalau renovate pun, kami make sure reno yang penting-penting dan amat berguna saja. Contohnya, buat table top dan cabinet kitchen atau pun extend ruangan dapur untuk buat laundry. Of course la kabinet kan tempat untuk simpan mangkuk-mangkuk. Eh? Asal lain macam je bunyinya? 😂 Dari segi perabot pula, kami tak spend terlalu banyak untuk impress tetamu. Asalkan sofa tu berkualiti dan kemas, dah okaylah. Tak perlu nak nampak mewah ke apa. Meja makan pun simple. Tak ada deko bunga berat-berat atau hiasan atas meja sampai nak runtuh meja makan tu. 😅 Yang penting fungsi meja makan tu saja. Langsir pun sama. Tak ada nak beli ropol-ropol nampak mewah tu. Just simple dan senang nak basuh. Senang nak maintain. Hiasan dalaman pun sama. Kalau korang biasa pergi rumah kawan-kawan chinese, rumah mereka sangat simple. Jarang sangat nak deko rumah nampak mewah. Perabot mewah atau grand pun jarang ada. Kami hanya pentingkan cat berkualiti. Nampak kemas dan bersih. Setel! Haha.. Hiasan lampu pun sama. Jarang sangat yang pasang chandelier yang besar-besar. Kat siling pun jarang ada ukiran ke apa. Selalunya kosong saja. Tu saya pelik bila kawan-kawan wife saya dah beli rumah tapi tak duduk lagi sebab nak kumpul duit design dan renovate rumah. Nak nampak mewah rumah tu. Banyak rugi woo.. kena bayar sewa kat luar, pada masa yang sama kena bayar kepada bank duit rumah baru yang tak diduduki. Selalunya kami takkan renovate rumah sekali semua. Buat sikit-sikit. Untuk permulaan buat asas dulu. Buat table top ke, cabinet kitchen ke atau extend dapur sikit. Masyarakat kami sayang habiskan untuk renovate rumah semata-mata. Mostly kami tak perlukan validation dari orang luar yang kami ada banyak duit. Orang kaya ya. Saya tak kaya lagi. Haha.. Duit mostly kami habiskan untuk pendidikan, melancong dan makan. Orang Cina cukup suka makan dan banyak spend duit untuk nikmati makanan yang sedap dan berkualiti. Wife saya dulu makan je apa semua. Tapi bila berkahwin dengan saya, saya ajar dia nikmati makanan yang sedap. Dia sebelum ni makan tepi jalan je. Asalkan kenyang. Sedap ke tak belakang cerita. Tapi prinsip orang Cina lain sikit. Mahal sikit tak apa. Asalkan sedap dan berkualiti. Memang kami banyaak spend duit untuk makanan. Kemudian, masyarakat kami banyak habiskan duit untuk melancong. We dont really buy material, but we do buy experience. Kami suka melancong untuk tambah pengalaman hidup. Kalau setakat reno rumah, duit sampai situ saja. Kepuasan tu hanya sementara. Takkan nak duduk rumah 24 jam je kan? Hidup ni bukan nak puaskan hati orang. Tapi hidup ni untuk kayakan diri dengan pengalaman supaya bila tua nanti tak jadi orang yang membosankan. Kan? Itulah yang ayah saya tanamkan sejak kecil. Rasanya ramai orang Cina pun dididik sebegitu. Hidup simple dan beli sesuatu bukan untuk menunjuk tetapi kepuasan atau reward diri selepas berkorban selama ni. 🔗Adam Kelvin #life#advice
@QuietWorld · Post #7988 · 23.01.2022, 15:17
#reminder#advice @quietworld🍃