Что происходит?
Рассуждения об инвестициях в ОФЗ по текущим ценам
Итак, с депозитами разобрались, с накопительными счетами (НС) – тоже. А что насчет ОФЗ? Ожидания высокой доходности ОФЗ не оправдались. Пока.
Взамен в моменте сложилась дилемма: короткие ОФЗ по текущим ценам не так выгодны, как короткие вклады, но на сроки >9 месяцев ОФЗ по текущим ценам выгоднее вкладов. Что делать?
⚠️ Прежде чем рассуждать дальше, напомню: наши личные финансовые и инвестиционные решения должны основываться на наших личных убеждениях, отношению к риску и его оценке.
Базовые допущения:
▪️рассуждения приводятся в контексте текущих санкций и ответных мер
▪️речь идет о сохранении денег или об инвестициях, а не о спекуляциях
▪️есть налог на купоны по ОФЗ, но нет налога на %% по депозитам
📍До 1 года
Коротких выпусков ОФЗ не так много: на 4, 8 и 10 месяцев. В моменте доходность по ним составляет ок.16-17%, а с учетом налога ок.14-15%. Что ниже коротких депозитов со ставками около 20+%.
Кто их тогда покупает (кроме спекулянтов, рассчитывающих на колебания цен)? Например, те, у кого:
▪️нет доверия к банкам/АСВ
▪️есть потребность в подобной диверсификации (например, не получается соблюдать страхуемый лимит в ₽1,4 млн)
▪️есть желание дождаться хороших цен на фондовом рынке, но не сидеть при этом в депозите/НС;
▪️есть уверенность в падении ключевой ставки до 17% или ниже в ближайшее время
Для остальных, по идее, депозиты или НС остаются более привлекательными.
📍До 3 лет
Вариантов больше – 8 выпусков со сроками от 1 года 5 месяцев до 2 лет 10 месяцев. Доходности где-то 14-15% (после налога 12-13%). В моменте это выше депозитов – там предлагают ниже 12% (хотя есть и редкие исключения).
Среднесрочные ОФЗ могут быть интересны тем, кто хочет зафиксировать доходность на этот срок на уровне выше текущих депозитов и уверен в снижении ключевой ниже 15% на горизонте 6-9 месяцев. Или рассчитывает на резкий рост цен на ОФЗ в течение года для их последующей перепродажи.
Однако на этом горизонте ОФЗ скорее нужны для диверсификации из-за необходимости учитывать высокую инфляцию и альтернативные доходности (по фондовому рынку). Ведь из-за текущих санкций и макроэкономики деньгам просто некуда выходить из России, а значит они могут в конце концов стимулировать инфляцию и/или перетекать на фондовый рынок. Как это происходит в Иране, который сейчас часто вспоминают как ближайший пример изолированной экономики.
📍От 3 лет
Самый широкий выбор и наиболее низкие ставки, в районе 13% и ниже. Из-за ЛДВ налог влияет только на купоны (если держать до погашения), а вкладов на такие сроки чаще всего просто нет. Покупателей ОФЗ заметно меньше, а их ожидания могут быть дополнительно связаны с надеждой на получение долгосрочной доходности на уровне исторической среднерыночной (если все вернется на круги своя).
Однако высокая неопределенность, инфляция и слишком длинная «срочность» служат существенными ограничениями для их покупки.
Что в итоге делать с ОФЗ, каждый решает самостоятельно. Но в происходящем нам стоит учитывать еще 2 момента:
1️⃣ Клиенты брокера «Универ Капитал» потеряли свои вложения в ОФЗ: их активы были принудительно проданы Национальным клиринговым центром (НКЦ) на открытии рынка в счет погашения задолженности брокера перед НКЦ. Объем безвозвратных убытков составил ок.173,8 млн рублей. Если кратко – это неприятно и неожиданно для тех инвесторов, но законно. Если подробно, то вся история здесь.
Сейчас лучше пользоваться крупными брокерами, аффилированными с банками из перечня системно-значимых. Подобные риски от этого не исчезнут, но уменьшатся хотя бы в теории.
2️⃣ Нерезидентов рано или поздно все-таки должны «выпустить» из ОФЗ. Как и когда именно это произойдет, неизвестно. Но этот выход, когда он случится, однозначно повлияет на цену и будет толкать ее вниз (а доходности - вверх).
Вероятность получения более высоких доходностей сохраняется, поэтому для тех, кто готов подождать, вклады и НС по-прежнему остаются интересными.
А вы сейчас покупаете/купили ОФЗ?👇🏻
#чтопроисходит#инвестиции
P.S. Берегите себя и своих близких, а также свои финансы🕊
Гроб, бархат, две иконы поп-культуры и один недвусмысленный хэштег — #DEAD. Леди Гага выложила в Instagram фото с Дженной Ортегой в образах, будто сошедших с подиума потустороннего Met Gala.
Как вам такая мрачная эстетика?
Телеграм | Сайт | Инстаграм
🔤🔤🔤🔤2️⃣
The US-Israeli war on Iran is in its third week, with at least 2,000 people killed and no end in sight. The strait of Hormuz remains largely closed off and US allies have rebuffed calls from the US president, Donald Trump, for them to help to reopen the vital waterway, through which about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.
Probably more than any other Iranian politician, Larijani combined Iran’s military and political strategy. His death will confirm the prime role the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps plays in Iranian politics. On Monday, a former long-time IRGC commander, Mohsen Rezaee, was appointed military adviser to the new supreme leader.
Larijani had been seen as one of the more pragmatic faces of Iran’s establishment – who helped steer nuclear negotiations with the west – but that image later hardened. Hours after US and Israeli strikes killed Khamenei, Larijani delivered a defiant message, warning that Iran would make its enemies “regret” their actions and promising a forceful response.
An Israeli official said a strike on Larijani had originally been planned for the previous night but was postponed at the last minute.
Intelligence received on Monday afternoon indicated that Larijani was due to arrive at one of several apartments he used as a hideout, the official said. He was reportedly there with his son when the strike was carried out.
When news he had been targeted began to circulate early on Tuesday, with his fate remaining unclear, another senior Israeli official said “there was no chance he survived this attack”.
In a handwritten statement issued by Iran state TV, Larijani had praised the bravery of Iranian sailors who were killed when their ship was hit by missiles fired by a US submarine off the Sri Lankan coast.
He had written: “Their memory will always remain in the heart of the Iranian nation and these martyrdoms will strengthen the foundation of the Islamic Republic army for years within the structure of the armed forces.”
Born in Najaf, Iraq, in 1958 he studied in Tehran and after the Islamic revolution rose through the ranks of the state, serving as culture minister, head of state broadcasting and, for more than a decade, as speaker of parliament.
As chief nuclear negotiator, he played a key role in shaping Iran’s engagement with world powers, later backing the 2015 nuclear deal.
Though often regarded as a pragmatist within the system, his stance had hardened in recent months, as tensions with Israel and the US escalated and diplomatic efforts faltered.
The US had offered a reward of up to $10m for information on senior Iranian military and intelligence officials, including Larijani, as part of a list of 10 figures linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
#larijani#dead#iran#trump#hormuz
📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events
🇺🇸
Iran’s Number 2 Confirmed Dead
🔤🔤🔤🔤1️⃣
Iran’s supreme national security council has confirmed the death of its chief, Ali Larijani, after Israel said it had killed him in an airstrike.
“The pure souls of the martyrs embraced the purified soul of God’s righteous servant, Martyr Dr Ali Larijani,” the council said on Tuesday evening, adding that his son and his bodyguards had died with him.
“After a lifetime of struggle for the advancement of Iran and of the Islamic Revolution, he ultimately attained his long-held aspiration, answered the divine call, and honourably achieved the sweet grace of martyrdom in the trench of service,” it added.
Israel said earlier it had killed Larijani, a linchpin of Iranian politics, in overnight strikes. He is the most senior Iranian figure to die in the war since the supreme leader Ali Khamenei was killed on its first day.
His death removes a pivotal figure at the heart of the regime’s political and security establishment at a moment of acute crisis and represents a devastating blow.
Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz, said a separate strike had killed the Basij paramilitary force commander, Gholamreza Soleimani, along with other senior Basij figures. Soleimani’s death was later confirmed by Iranian state media.
“Larijani and the Basij commander were eliminated overnight and joined the head of the annihilation programme, Khamenei, and all the eliminated members of the axis of evil, in the depths of hell,” Katz said on Tuesday.
Trump also hailed Larijani’s reported death, without actually naming him but referring to his supposed role in spearheading the recent crushing of mass protests. “Their leaders are gone,” Trump said of Iran’s clerical regime. “It’s an evil group. I mean, they’ve killed much more than 32,000 people. And the man who was responsible for that was also killed yesterday.”
The twin deaths show Israel still retains intelligence on the movements of Iran’s top leaders inside Tehran, and can use it and the US’s near complete control of Iranian airspace to strike at will.
Larijani had been seen days earlier on the crowded streets of Tehran during the annual Quds day rally.
He was appointed secretary of the supreme national security council in August after the previous US-Israeli attacks on Iran in June 2025, and on Monday issued a statement to Muslims around the world appealing to them to support Iran in its struggle and challenging Gulf leaders to explain why they were still allowing US bases in their countries to be used to attack Iran.
Larijani had also played a key diplomatic role before the war alongside Iran’s foreign minister Araghchi, in trying to persuade the Gulf states to prevent an attack. He forcibly defended Tehran’s tactics in the war, but was seen as a possible transitional figure at the end of the conflict. Israel is sceptical about the concept of a transition from within the regime.
The Turkish foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, said: “The political assassinations perpetrated by Israel, including those of Iranian statesmen and politicians, constitute illegal acts contrary to the laws of war.”
The office of the Israeli prime minister said in a statement that Netanyahu had ordered “the elimination of senior officials of the Iranian regime”.
#larijani#dead#iran#trump#hormuz
📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events
🇺🇸
🔤🔤🔤🔤🔤🔤🔤
𝕯𝕰𝕬𝕯⚸
Enjoy my new Pack Stikers👏 and thanks for being here😌
▶️#PussInBoots2#Dead#Movies
🟰 𝓒𝓻𝓮𝓪𝓽𝓸𝓻 🐱SΉΛDIZƗИΉӨ
➡️PINTEREST😎฿ØØ₴₮
シ ⍩ ⍨ ⍤ ッ ㋛ ⍢〴 🕹
🚀 Overview of SBTI's 28 Personality Types
PANews posted on X (formerly Twitter) about the 28 distinct personality types identified by SBTI. These include the 'Controller' who excels in task management and situation handling, and the 'ATM-er' who invests time and emotional value. The 'Dior-s' represents a self-deprecating narrative under pressure, while the 'BOSS' is goal-oriented with strong organizational skills. The 'Thanker' leans towards positive feedback and gratitude, whereas the 'Oh-No' personality anticipates risks and negative outcomes. The 'GoGo' is action-driven, and the 'Sexy' emphasizes style and attraction. The 'Lover' is emotionally invested, and the 'Mum' is nurturing and concerned. The 'Fake' wears a social mask, and the 'OJBK' is conflict-averse. The 'Malo' resonates with the working class, while the 'Joker' uses humor to mask vulnerability. The 'WOC!' is highly reactive, and the 'Thinker' is analytical. The 'Shit' is cynical but often cleans up messes, while the 'ZZZZ' strategically disconnects. The 'Poor' is resource-conscious, and the 'Monk' is restrained and detached. The 'IMSB' is self-deprecating, and the 'Solo' is independent. The 'FUCK' is direct and rebellious, while the 'Dead' feels drained. The 'IMFW' has a low self-assessment, and the 'HHHH' finds humor first. The 'Drunk' is a hidden personality, and the 'Kanye' remains mysterious.
#SBTI#PersonalityTypes#Controller#ATM#Dior#BOSS#Thanker#OhNo#GoGo#Sexy#Lover#Mum#Fake#OJBK#Malo#Joker#WOC#Thinker#Shit#ZZZZ#Poor#Monk#IMSB#Solo#FUCK#Dead#IMFW#HHHH#Drunk#Kanye