Что происходит?
Рассуждения об инвестициях в ОФЗ по текущим ценам
Итак, с депозитами разобрались, с накопительными счетами (НС) – тоже. А что насчет ОФЗ? Ожидания высокой доходности ОФЗ не оправдались. Пока.
Взамен в моменте сложилась дилемма: короткие ОФЗ по текущим ценам не так выгодны, как короткие вклады, но на сроки >9 месяцев ОФЗ по текущим ценам выгоднее вкладов. Что делать?
⚠️ Прежде чем рассуждать дальше, напомню: наши личные финансовые и инвестиционные решения должны основываться на наших личных убеждениях, отношению к риску и его оценке.
Базовые допущения:
▪️рассуждения приводятся в контексте текущих санкций и ответных мер
▪️речь идет о сохранении денег или об инвестициях, а не о спекуляциях
▪️есть налог на купоны по ОФЗ, но нет налога на %% по депозитам
📍До 1 года
Коротких выпусков ОФЗ не так много: на 4, 8 и 10 месяцев. В моменте доходность по ним составляет ок.16-17%, а с учетом налога ок.14-15%. Что ниже коротких депозитов со ставками около 20+%.
Кто их тогда покупает (кроме спекулянтов, рассчитывающих на колебания цен)? Например, те, у кого:
▪️нет доверия к банкам/АСВ
▪️есть потребность в подобной диверсификации (например, не получается соблюдать страхуемый лимит в ₽1,4 млн)
▪️есть желание дождаться хороших цен на фондовом рынке, но не сидеть при этом в депозите/НС;
▪️есть уверенность в падении ключевой ставки до 17% или ниже в ближайшее время
Для остальных, по идее, депозиты или НС остаются более привлекательными.
📍До 3 лет
Вариантов больше – 8 выпусков со сроками от 1 года 5 месяцев до 2 лет 10 месяцев. Доходности где-то 14-15% (после налога 12-13%). В моменте это выше депозитов – там предлагают ниже 12% (хотя есть и редкие исключения).
Среднесрочные ОФЗ могут быть интересны тем, кто хочет зафиксировать доходность на этот срок на уровне выше текущих депозитов и уверен в снижении ключевой ниже 15% на горизонте 6-9 месяцев. Или рассчитывает на резкий рост цен на ОФЗ в течение года для их последующей перепродажи.
Однако на этом горизонте ОФЗ скорее нужны для диверсификации из-за необходимости учитывать высокую инфляцию и альтернативные доходности (по фондовому рынку). Ведь из-за текущих санкций и макроэкономики деньгам просто некуда выходить из России, а значит они могут в конце концов стимулировать инфляцию и/или перетекать на фондовый рынок. Как это происходит в Иране, который сейчас часто вспоминают как ближайший пример изолированной экономики.
📍От 3 лет
Самый широкий выбор и наиболее низкие ставки, в районе 13% и ниже. Из-за ЛДВ налог влияет только на купоны (если держать до погашения), а вкладов на такие сроки чаще всего просто нет. Покупателей ОФЗ заметно меньше, а их ожидания могут быть дополнительно связаны с надеждой на получение долгосрочной доходности на уровне исторической среднерыночной (если все вернется на круги своя).
Однако высокая неопределенность, инфляция и слишком длинная «срочность» служат существенными ограничениями для их покупки.
Что в итоге делать с ОФЗ, каждый решает самостоятельно. Но в происходящем нам стоит учитывать еще 2 момента:
1️⃣ Клиенты брокера «Универ Капитал» потеряли свои вложения в ОФЗ: их активы были принудительно проданы Национальным клиринговым центром (НКЦ) на открытии рынка в счет погашения задолженности брокера перед НКЦ. Объем безвозвратных убытков составил ок.173,8 млн рублей. Если кратко – это неприятно и неожиданно для тех инвесторов, но законно. Если подробно, то вся история здесь.
Сейчас лучше пользоваться крупными брокерами, аффилированными с банками из перечня системно-значимых. Подобные риски от этого не исчезнут, но уменьшатся хотя бы в теории.
2️⃣ Нерезидентов рано или поздно все-таки должны «выпустить» из ОФЗ. Как и когда именно это произойдет, неизвестно. Но этот выход, когда он случится, однозначно повлияет на цену и будет толкать ее вниз (а доходности - вверх).
Вероятность получения более высоких доходностей сохраняется, поэтому для тех, кто готов подождать, вклады и НС по-прежнему остаются интересными.
А вы сейчас покупаете/купили ОФЗ?👇🏻
#чтопроисходит#инвестиции
P.S. Берегите себя и своих близких, а также свои финансы🕊
#DebunkingFakes
The Kiev regime continues to recycle its baseless accusations regarding “thousands of abducted Ukrainian children” to promote its false narratives. Although this claim has been debunked time and again, it is important to revisit the case and counter #fakes with #facts.
***
In 2014, the Kiev regime that seized power through an unconstitutional and violent coup unleashed punitive operations against the residents of Donetsk and Lugansk (at the time – Ukrainian citizens) who rejected the nationalist forces that installed themselves in power. As early as April 2014, Ukraine's armed forces against the people of Donbass using armoured vehicles, aviation, artillery and rocket systems.
❗️ Thousands of civilians, including hundreds of children, became victims of indiscriminate attacks.
On June 2, 2017, the Alley of Angels memorial was unveiled in Donetsk in honour of the perished children. Back then, the memorial listed 66 names. Today, the number of young victims has already exceeded 300.
Kiev’s atrocities go beyond the killing of children – the regime even resorts to harassing minors online. The infamous“Myrotvorets” website – a public hit list run by Ukrainian neo-Nazi, which is still operational and and is hosted on Western servers, targets almost 400 children.
Among them is Platon Burchenkov – a toddler who will only turn... three years old in January 2026 is accused of “knowingly violating the state border”. Another example is Faina Savenkova – a young blogger from Lugansk, whose personal data was added to “Myrotvorets” when she was barely 12. Ukrainian radicals claim that the teenager “encroached upon the sovereignty” of the entire state.
⚡️ According to Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office, Ukrainian punitive actions have claimed 5,000 civilian lives and left over 13,500 wounded – among them 1,275 minors.
Nevertheless, in April 2023 Kiev began circulating the myth of “20,000 abducted Ukrainian children”. It was first promoted by Ukraine's Commissioner for Children’s Rights Daria Gerasimchuk and quickly amplified by Western mainstream media. The “19,546 deported kids” figure published by the Children of War portal was not backed by any lists, names or individual records.
The Russian side received an actual list of “abducted Ukrainian children” only in 2025 during resumed Russia-Ukraine direct talks in Istanbul. It contained only 339 names, showing that the number of children separated from their families on both sides had been grossly inflated for political PR.
A case-by-case review showed that a large share of those listed as “children” were actually adults who had already turned 18 when the special military operation started. Some were found legally residing in Russia with one of the parents, while over 100 were found in Germany – a revelation Ukraine quickly tried to hide.
Meanwhile, Russia has maintained a clear and transparent family-reunification process, coordinated by the Office of the Presidential Commissioner for Children’s Rights. Since 2022, 122 children from 98 families have been reunited with parents or close relatives in Ukraine or third countries. 29 children have returned to Russia from Ukraine. All reunifications are verified and accompanied by the International Committee of the Red Cross.
‼️Russia has never impeded the reunification of children with their families – and never will. 👉 This is our principled position.
#See4Yourself#Think4Yourself
#DebunkingFakes
The Kiev regime continues to recycle its baseless accusations regarding “thousands of abducted Ukrainian children” to promote its false narratives. Although this claim has been debunked time and again, it is important to revisit the case and counter #fakes with #facts.
***
In 2014, the Kiev regime that seized power through an unconstitutional and violent coup unleashed punitive operations against the residents of Donetsk and Lugansk (at the time – Ukrainian citizens) who rejected the nationalist forces that installed themselves in power. As early as April 2014, Ukraine's armed forces against the people of Donbass using armoured vehicles, aviation, artillery and rocket systems.
❗️ Thousands of civilians, including hundreds of children, became victims of indiscriminate attacks.
On June 2, 2017, the Alley of Angels memorial was unveiled in Donetsk in honour of the perished children. Back then, the memorial listed 66 names. Today, the number of young victims has already exceeded 300.
Kiev’s atrocities go beyond the killing of children – the regime even resorts to harassing minors online. The infamous“Myrotvorets” website – a public hit list run by Ukrainian neo-Nazi, which is still operational and and is hosted on Western servers, targets almost 400 children.
Among them is Platon Burchenkov – a toddler who will only turn... three years old in January 2026 is accused of “knowingly violating the state border”. Another example is Faina Savenkova – a young blogger from Lugansk, whose personal data was added to “Myrotvorets” when she was barely 12. Ukrainian radicals claim that the teenager “encroached upon the sovereignty” of the entire state.
⚡️ According to Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office, Ukrainian punitive actions have claimed 5,000 civilian lives and left over 13,500 wounded – among them 1,275 minors.
Nevertheless, in April 2023 Kiev began circulating the myth of “20,000 abducted Ukrainian children”. It was first promoted by Ukraine's Commissioner for Children’s Rights Daria Gerasimchuk and quickly amplified by Western mainstream media. The “19,546 deported kids” figure published by the Children of War portal was not backed by any lists, names or individual records.
The Russian side received an actual list of “abducted Ukrainian children” only in 2025 during resumed Russia-Ukraine direct talks in Istanbul. It contained only 339 names, showing that the number of children separated from their families on both sides had been grossly inflated for political PR.
A case-by-case review showed that a large share of those listed as “children” were actually adults who had already turned 18 when the special military operation started. Some were found legally residing in Russia with one of the parents, while over 100 were found in Germany – a revelation Ukraine quickly tried to hide.
Meanwhile, Russia has maintained a clear and transparent family-reunification process, coordinated by the Office of the Presidential Commissioner for Children’s Rights. Since 2022, 122 children from 98 families have been reunited with parents or close relatives in Ukraine or third countries. 29 children have returned to Russia from Ukraine. All reunifications are verified and accompanied by the International Committee of the Red Cross.
‼️Russia has never impeded the reunification of children with their families – and never will. 👉 This is our principled position.
#See4Yourself#Think4Yourself
#DebunkingFakes
The Kiev regime continues to recycle its baseless accusations regarding “thousands of abducted Ukrainian children” to promote its false narratives. Although this claim has been debunked time and again, it is important to revisit the case and counter #fakes with #facts.
***
In 2014, the Kiev regime that seized power through an unconstitutional and violent coup unleashed punitive operations against the residents of Donetsk and Lugansk (at the time – Ukrainian citizens) who rejected the nationalist forces that installed themselves in power. As early as April 2014, Ukraine's armed forces against the people of Donbass using armoured vehicles, aviation, artillery and rocket systems.
❗️ Thousands of civilians, including hundreds of children, became victims of indiscriminate attacks.
On June 2, 2017, the Alley of Angels memorial was unveiled in Donetsk in honour of the perished children. Back then, the memorial listed 66 names. Today, the number of young victims has already exceeded 300.
Kiev’s atrocities go beyond the killing of children – the regime even resorts to harassing minors online. The infamous“Myrotvorets” website – a public hit list run by Ukrainian neo-Nazi, which is still operational and and is hosted on Western servers, targets almost 400 children.
Among them is Platon Burchenkov – a toddler who will only turn... three years old in January 2026 is accused of “knowingly violating the state border”. Another example is Faina Savenkova – a young blogger from Lugansk, whose personal data was added to “Myrotvorets” when she was barely 12. Ukrainian radicals claim that the teenager “encroached upon the sovereignty” of the entire state.
⚡️ According to Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office, Ukrainian punitive actions have claimed 5,000 civilian lives and left over 13,500 wounded – among them 1,275 minors.
Nevertheless, in April 2023 Kiev began circulating the myth of “20,000 abducted Ukrainian children”. It was first promoted by Ukraine's Commissioner for Children’s Rights Daria Gerasimchuk and quickly amplified by Western mainstream media. The “19,546 deported kids” figure published by the Children of War portal was not backed by any lists, names or individual records.
The Russian side received an actual list of “abducted Ukrainian children” only in 2025 during resumed Russia-Ukraine direct talks in Istanbul. It contained only 339 names, showing that the number of children separated from their families on both sides had been grossly inflated for political PR.
A case-by-case review showed that a large share of those listed as “children” were actually adults who had already turned 18 when the special military operation started. Some were found legally residing in Russia with one of the parents, while over 100 were found in Germany – a revelation Ukraine quickly tried to hide.
Meanwhile, Russia has maintained a clear and transparent family-reunification process, coordinated by the Office of the Presidential Commissioner for Children’s Rights. Since 2022, 122 children from 98 families have been reunited with parents or close relatives in Ukraine or third countries. 29 children have returned to Russia from Ukraine. All reunifications are verified and accompanied by the International Committee of the Red Cross.
‼️Russia has never impeded the reunification of children with their families – and never will. 👉 This is our principled position.
#See4Yourself#Think4Yourself
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