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Источник @willberich · Post #708 · 29 мар.

Что происходит? Рассуждения об инвестициях в ОФЗ по текущим ценам Итак, с депозитами разобрались, с накопительными счетами (НС) – тоже. А что насчет ОФЗ? Ожидания высокой доходности ОФЗ не оправдались. Пока. Взамен в моменте сложилась дилемма: короткие ОФЗ по текущим ценам не так выгодны, как короткие вклады, но на сроки >9 месяцев ОФЗ по текущим ценам выгоднее вкладов. Что делать? ⚠️ Прежде чем рассуждать дальше, напомню: наши личные финансовые и инвестиционные решения должны основываться на наших личных убеждениях, отношению к риску и его оценке. Базовые допущения: ▪️рассуждения приводятся в контексте текущих санкций и ответных мер ▪️речь идет о сохранении денег или об инвестициях, а не о спекуляциях ▪️есть налог на купоны по ОФЗ, но нет налога на %% по депозитам 📍До 1 года Коротких выпусков ОФЗ не так много: на 4, 8 и 10 месяцев. В моменте доходность по ним составляет ок.16-17%, а с учетом налога ок.14-15%. Что ниже коротких депозитов со ставками около 20+%. Кто их тогда покупает (кроме спекулянтов, рассчитывающих на колебания цен)? Например, те, у кого: ▪️нет доверия к банкам/АСВ ▪️есть потребность в подобной диверсификации (например, не получается соблюдать страхуемый лимит в ₽1,4 млн) ▪️есть желание дождаться хороших цен на фондовом рынке, но не сидеть при этом в депозите/НС; ▪️есть уверенность в падении ключевой ставки до 17% или ниже в ближайшее время Для остальных, по идее, депозиты или НС остаются более привлекательными. 📍До 3 лет Вариантов больше – 8 выпусков со сроками от 1 года 5 месяцев до 2 лет 10 месяцев. Доходности где-то 14-15% (после налога 12-13%). В моменте это выше депозитов – там предлагают ниже 12% (хотя есть и редкие исключения). Среднесрочные ОФЗ могут быть интересны тем, кто хочет зафиксировать доходность на этот срок на уровне выше текущих депозитов и уверен в снижении ключевой ниже 15% на горизонте 6-9 месяцев. Или рассчитывает на резкий рост цен на ОФЗ в течение года для их последующей перепродажи. Однако на этом горизонте ОФЗ скорее нужны для диверсификации из-за необходимости учитывать высокую инфляцию и альтернативные доходности (по фондовому рынку). Ведь из-за текущих санкций и макроэкономики деньгам просто некуда выходить из России, а значит они могут в конце концов стимулировать инфляцию и/или перетекать на фондовый рынок. Как это происходит в Иране, который сейчас часто вспоминают как ближайший пример изолированной экономики. 📍От 3 лет Самый широкий выбор и наиболее низкие ставки, в районе 13% и ниже. Из-за ЛДВ налог влияет только на купоны (если держать до погашения), а вкладов на такие сроки чаще всего просто нет. Покупателей ОФЗ заметно меньше, а их ожидания могут быть дополнительно связаны с надеждой на получение долгосрочной доходности на уровне исторической среднерыночной (если все вернется на круги своя). Однако высокая неопределенность, инфляция и слишком длинная «срочность» служат существенными ограничениями для их покупки. Что в итоге делать с ОФЗ, каждый решает самостоятельно. Но в происходящем нам стоит учитывать еще 2 момента: 1️⃣ Клиенты брокера «Универ Капитал» потеряли свои вложения в ОФЗ: их активы были принудительно проданы Национальным клиринговым центром (НКЦ) на открытии рынка в счет погашения задолженности брокера перед НКЦ. Объем безвозвратных убытков составил ок.173,8 млн рублей. Если кратко – это неприятно и неожиданно для тех инвесторов, но законно. Если подробно, то вся история здесь. Сейчас лучше пользоваться крупными брокерами, аффилированными с банками из перечня системно-значимых. Подобные риски от этого не исчезнут, но уменьшатся хотя бы в теории. 2️⃣ Нерезидентов рано или поздно все-таки должны «выпустить» из ОФЗ. Как и когда именно это произойдет, неизвестно. Но этот выход, когда он случится, однозначно повлияет на цену и будет толкать ее вниз (а доходности - вверх). Вероятность получения более высоких доходностей сохраняется, поэтому для тех, кто готов подождать, вклады и НС по-прежнему остаются интересными. А вы сейчас покупаете/купили ОФЗ?👇🏻 #чтопроисходит#инвестиции P.S. Берегите себя и своих близких, а также свои финансы🕊

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Addis Standard

@addisstandardeng · Post #21501 · 23.02.2026, 12:36

News: House of Federation removes five districts from #Tigray region oversight for upcoming 7th general elections #Ethiopia’s House of Federation has ordered that the upcoming federal parliamentary elections in five electoral districts previously under the Tigray regional state to be conducted outside the Tigray administration’s oversight until “ownership claim is resolved.” The decision was communicated to the National Election Board of Ethiopia (#NEBE) in a letter dated 3 February 2026, following NEBE’s publication in late January of electoral districts and polling stations for voter registration under the 7th General Election. The Board publicized the districts based on pre-war electoral constituency to announce voter registration preparations in polling stations in the #Humera electoral district in the Western Zone of Tigray, specifically within Setit Humera, Kafta Humera, and Wolkait woredas. Similarly, polling stations for the Adi Remets ..... Read more: https://addisstandard.com/?p=55332

Borkena

@borkena · Post #5502 · 09.12.2025, 18:32

WTTASA Calls for Justice and Warns of Renewed Threats from TPLF on Genocide Commemoration Day. Read. https://borkena.com/2025/12/09/ethiopia-wttasa-calls-for-justice-and-warns-of-renewed-threats-from-tplf-on-genocide-commemoration-day/#Ethiopia#HumanRights#humera#welkait

Addis Standard

@addisstandardeng · Post #21620 · 05.03.2026, 11:55

News: Court adjourns case over #NEBE’s decision to conduct election in 5 electoral districts outside #Tigray oversight The Federal First Instance Court in #Lideta has adjourned a case over NEBE’s decision to conduct election in 5 electoral districts outside Tigray oversight to March 11, Addis Standard learned. Judge Seble Kinfe, who presided over the session on Wednesday afternoon, reviewed the initial filings and decided to adjourn the proceedings until March 11 to allow the court to hear the objections in full. The dispute stems from a decision by the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), which on Feb. 23, 2026 announced that five electoral districts, #Humera, Adi-Remets, Korem-Ofla, Tselemti, and Raya Alamata, would participate only in federal elections during the upcoming seventh general elections excluding them from Tigray oversight. The board suspended regional council voting in those areas pending a final territorial ruling by the House of...... Read more: https://addisstandard.com/?p=55591

Addis Standard

@addisstandardeng · Post #21084 · 15.01.2026, 14:58

News: #US Ambassador to #Ethiopia visits #Humera accompanied by Getachew Reda amid ongoing challenges in Western Tigray US Ambassador to Ethiopia Ervin Massinga on Thursday morning arrived in Humera town, #Western_Tigray, accompanied by #Getachew Reda, Advisor on Horn of Africa Affairs to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. According to Amhara regional media, the Ambassador was received by Ashete Demlew, an administrator installed by the #Amhara regional government. The visit is reported to include meetings with residents of Humera and inspections of health facilities in the town. Humera, located in Western Tigray, remains at the center of unresolved political, security, & humanitarian challenges in the aftermath of the two-year war in Tigray. In a message shared by the US Embassy in Addis Abeba on Thursday, Ambassador Massinga said he had witnessed firsthand the hardships facing residents of Humera. “The needs are urgent — damaged infrastructure, limited medical... Read more: https://addisstandard.com/?p=54578

Addis Standard

@addisstandardeng · Post #21233 · 29.01.2026, 08:52

News: #Ethiopian Airlines suspends flights to #Tigray airports Ethiopian Airlines has suspended flights scheduled for today to airports in Tigray, including #Mekelle, #Axum, #Shire, and #Humera, according to information obtained by Addis Standard. An Addis Standard reporter on the ground in Mekelle confirmed airport staff were informed to take a break for the day. However, Ethiopian Airlines’ ticket office in Mekelle continued providing services, excluding flights scheduled for today. “The system is working. We are giving services. We sell tickets scheduled from tomorrow onwards. We reschedule flights and provide other services,” one ticket office staff member told Addis Standard. “But none of us know why flights were suspended today.” Passengers who had booked flights for today received text messages notifying them of the cancellation. One message sent to customers read: “Your flight ET0102 from ADD on 29 Jan 2026, at 08:10 AM has been cancelled…. Read more: https://addisstandard.com/?p=54824

Addis Standard

@addisstandardeng · Post #21289 · 03.02.2026, 08:43

News: #Ethiopian Airlines resumes flights to #Tigray after five day suspension Ethiopian Airlines has resumed flights to Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region after a five day suspension, with the first flight departing from Addis Abeba arriving at #Mekelle#Alula Abanega International Airport at 7:50 a.m., an Addis Standard reporter in Mekelle confirmed. The national carrier suspended flights to Tigray last Thursday, affecting airports in Mekelle, #Axum, #Shire, and #Humera, as tensions escalated in parts of the region. The suspension disrupted both passenger travel and cargo services, further constraining transportation links between Tigray and the rest of the country. An officer at the Ethiopian Airlines ticket office in Mekelle confirmed to Addis Standard on Monday that flights had resumed. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the official said services were expected to restart early... https://web.facebook.com/AddisstandardEng/posts/pfbid034oz7ko4wv6Pk4Uv3HhL6JZccVHUMcLUEZ7KLDT9LkHpPfDajkgvRPT5dxsXqoMRVl

Addis Standard

@addisstandardeng · Post #21862 · 27.03.2026, 13:25

News: #The_Reporter’s Journalist detained in #Western_Tigray for entering without permit, taking photos #Bewket_Abebe, the Chief Editor of The Reporter (#Ethiopia), was detained for three days in Western #Tigray after local authorities said he entered the zone “without a required special permit” and took photographs in public spaces in #Humera town, the magazine announced yesterday. According to The Reporter Magazine, Bewket was arrested on 21 March, 2026, in Humera Town while on assignment to conduct interviews and report from the region. Officials reportedly warned journalists that a specialized permit is required not only to carry out professional work but also to the area. Prior to his detention, Bewket had been in communication with local administrators about his travel plans and had scheduled a potential interview with #Ashete_Demilew, the administrator of what has been referred to as the “Wolqait Tegede Setit Humera Zone”, an administration installed by Read more: https://addisstandard.com/?p=56155

Addis Standard

@addisstandardeng · Post #21254 · 30.01.2026, 14:55

News: Flights to #Tigray remain suspended, affecting even Interim Administration president’s scheduled Addis visit The continued suspension of #Ethiopian Airlines flights to Tigray has disrupted official travel, with Tigray Interim Administration President Tadesse Worede confirming that his planned visit to #Addis_Abeba did not take place due to the flight cancellations. Asked by Addis Standard whether his visit was hindered by the suspension of flights, President Tadesse responded, “Yes.” Flights to airports in Tigray, including #Mekelle, #Axum, #Shire, and #Humera, remained suspended on Friday, with Ethiopian Airlines yet to provide an official explanation for the disruption. An Addis Standard reporter on the ground confirmed airline ticket office, however, remained open... Meanwhile, road transportation in parts of Southern Tigray has also been disrupted. Transport movement along the #Woldiya–#Kobo–#Alamata corridor remains limited, while displacement Read more: https://addisstandard.com/?p=54856

Red Nile

@rednile12 · Post #11017 · 16.02.2026, 16:08

📝ANALYSIS: The Unmasking of Addis Standard: Independence or Illusion? ✍🏽By Dhuga Bilisuma | Red Nile Contributor 📅 February 16, 2026 In a detailed piece for RedNile, contributor Dhuga Bilisuma subjects Addis Standard’s recent coverage to rigorous academic scrutiny, questioning whether the outlet’s self-proclaimed “independence” withstands analytical review. Drawing from established media theory — including the framing work of Robert Entman and agenda-setting theory — the article examines three editorial patterns from January–February 2026 that raise concerns about conflict-sensitive reporting standards in Ethiopia’s fragile post-conflict environment. 1️⃣ Territorial Framing: “Wolkait” vs. “Western Tigray” When Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed referred to “Wolkait” during parliamentary remarks, Addis Standard’s headline substituted the term with “Western Tigray.” 📌The Critique: Framing theory suggests such terminology shifts are not neutral. In a contested territorial dispute, choosing nomenclature different from the speaker’s own wording can signal narrative alignment — especially when competing historical and constitutional claims are involved. The report, according to Bilisuma, lacked the contextual clarification recommended by conflict-sensitive journalism standards. 2️⃣ Agenda-Setting: Selective Visibility of Protests In late January, demonstrations reportedly took place in #Telemt, #Humera, #Wofla, #Korem, #Zata, #Dabat, #Debark, and #Dejach_Meda, with protesters calling for full implementation of the 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement. #AddisStandard reportedly provided no coverage of these protests. 📌The Critique: Agenda-setting theory argues that what media omits can be as influential as what it highlights. For diaspora readers — who rely heavily on English-language reporting — such omissions may shape international perception by rendering certain grievances invisible in global discourse. 3️⃣ Post-Publication Revision: The “Maneuver” Case In reporting remarks from the Tigray Interim Administration, the outlet initially used the military term “maneuvering” to describe troop movements. 📌The Critique: While revisions are common in journalism, Bilisuma points to a pattern of reactive, non-transparent language adjustments. In a post-conflict setting governed by the Pretoria Agreement, terms like “maneuver,” “movement,” or “deployment” carry significant implications regarding compliance or breach. Inconsistent transparency in edits can undermine public trust. 4️⃣ The Broader Pattern: Asymmetrical Context The article argues that detailed historical grievances and counter-arguments are frequently added when framing federal officials. However, similar contextual depth is not consistently applied when reporting on actors associated with #TPLF leadership. 📌The Critique: This uneven distribution of contextual scrutiny may generate cumulative narrative asymmetry — shaping reader perception without explicit editorial positioning. 🧭 The Verdict Bilisuma stops short of alleging intentional bias. Instead, he argues that the cumulative effect of terminology choices, selective coverage, and revision practices constructs a particular political terrain for readers. For diaspora audiences — whose understanding of events often depends on outlets like #AddisStandard — these framing dynamics carry amplified consequences. “Media independence is not established solely through mission statements. It is demonstrated through transparent editorial standards.” ♦️Bottom Line: A must-read for anyone who consumes Ethiopian media critically. In fragile post-conflict societies, framing is never just semantics — it is politics. 📌Read the full article here: The Unmasking of Addis Standard: Independence or Illusion? #Ethiopia#MediaAnalysis#AddisStandard#RedNile#ConflictReporting#Framing