Politico

Trump appears weak right now: his campaign launch landed with a thud and he’s facing numerous investigations. The irony is that the weaker he seems, the more it encourages others to enter the race – and the easier it becomes for Trump to split the field and win the GOP nomination. For now, party leaders hope that somehow the Republican collective consciousness has learned something from 2016 and will place their support behind the right person. But how the GOP plans to stop Trump? There’s no real consensus on how to proceed.

The GOP is quietly plotting against Donald Trump, fearing that if he wins the Republican nomination, it’ll cost the party not just the presidency but a chance to retake the Senate and hold on to the House.

Haley is polling only at 3% among Republican voters compared to Trump’s 48%. But it’s still early — and the war in Ukraine, tensions with China and the candidate pool just might elevate national security issues, making her a more central figure in the future. Much of the conservative praise for her is from her two-year stint as U.N. ambassador: 👉 She was publicly critical of Russia when then-President Trump wasn’t. 👉 She called Syrian President Bashar Assad a “war criminal.” 👉 She pushed through historic sanctions on North Korea 👉 She countered Iran while offering full-throated support for Israel. More on Haley in today’s National Security Daily. Questions? DM me on Telegram: @janjbyun👋

Nikki Haley is about to jump into the 2024 presidential race. The Republican is expected to announce her campaign on Feb. 15 to become the second major official candidate after Donald Trump. Haley served in South Carolina’s legislature before being elected governor in 2010. She spent 6 years in that position until Trump picked her to join his Cabinet in 2017 as U.N. ambassador. Haley, whose parents were Indian immigrants, has long been seen as a prospective presidential candidate, despite declaring in 2021 that she wouldn’t run for president if Trump did. “I think it’s time for new generational change,” she told Fox News last month.

Still, some senior congressional Democrats fear that if Russia makes gains — or if Ukraine simply fails to advance further by the fall — voters will wonder why the Biden administration has allocated so many resources to the war. All the talk of standing up for democracy will mean little if Moscow gains strength. In short, Biden will have to manage a long-haul war and a two-year campaign at the same time. And while senior administration officials aren’t too worried about the politics part, the military aspect will be far more tricky to manage.

It’s official: President Biden will send 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine — a move that reflects a growing belief that the war could stretch years and require extraordinary measures to defeat Russia. Yet, with Biden potentially weeks away from announcing his presidential reelection bid, a war with no end in sight threatens to loom over him on the trail. Biden’s aides don’t expect the conflict to be one of the top issues heading into the 2024 election, but they believe the president’s stance on the war — which he has framed as a battle for democracy — could help win over the public, a majority of whom back his position, according to a new poll.

Last month, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis received a hand-delivered letter signed by 18 of Michigan’s top state House Republicans. The message: They’re “ready and willing to help [DeSantis] win” in 2024. The letter is a thinly veiled shot at Donald Trump — the only announced Republican candidate — following a series of elections that saw the GOP get bludgeoned at the ballots. Since 2018, Michigan’s Republicans have lost control of three statewide offices, both state legislative chambers, several congressional seats and other key posts. Michigan’s officeholders aren’t the only ones willing to break away from the former president. A survey released last month found that a plurality of the state’s Republican voters prefer a Trump alternative as the party’s 2024 nominee. Michigan was key to Trump's rise. In 2016, he won the state over Hillary Clinton — the first time since 1988 that Michigan voted Republican in a presidential race — but he then narrowly lost the state to Biden in 2020. We’ll be back with updates. If you have questions in the meantime, DM me on Telegram @janjbyun🙋‍♀️

Scher’s bet for Democrats: President Biden. Six months ago, the incumbent was widely presumed to be dead weight. But then he kicked into full gear: 👉 He quarterbacked a midterms strategy that kept far more of the map blue than most people thought possible (and arguably helped defeat election deniers). It was the best midterm performance by a president’s party since George W. Bush’s Republicans post-Sept. 11. 👉 He passed a flurry of bills, including a law codifying same-sex marriage rights. 👉He negotiated for the release of Brittney Griner from a Russian prison. There are still calls for the 80-year-old president to bow out once his term ends. But the political cost of making a primary challenge has grown steep. Recent polls show most Democrats now want Biden to run for re-election. And any move perceived as dividing the party and harming its chances in the general election could permanently damage any Democratic challenger’s future prospects. Questions? DM on Telegram at @janjbyun. We’ll be back in January. Hope you have a great New Years 🎉

As we head into 2023, let’s do a deep dive on where presidential hopefuls stand, from our magazine contributor Bill Scher. Scher thinks the best-positioned Republican is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who won reelection by a “ludicrous” 19 points and whose national profile continues to grow. In several post-midterm polls testing Trump v. DeSantis among Republican voters, DeSantis leads anywhere from 2 to 23 points. How did he do this? By governing with Trump-esque pugnacity, unrivaled ruthlessness and uncompromising ideology. 👉 He revoked tax and zoning benefits from Florida’s biggest cash cow (Disney) for criticizing his new law that effectively banned discussion of sexual orientation and gender identity in grades K–3. 👉 He used taxpayer dollars to fly Venezuelan refugees from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard to tweak blue state liberals. 👉 He fired an elected Democratic county attorney who pledged not to prosecute abortion cases under DeSantis’ new 15-week ban. Most central to DeSantis’ persona is his anti-expert attitude toward Covid-19 vaccines. His statements have been regularly corrected by fact-checking journalists, but they clearly appeal to some in the GOP base.

Abortion upended the midterms. Now it will define Republican presidential politics. It’s no longer enough for a candidate to say they’re “pro-life,” promise to defund Planned Parenthood or even provide — as Donald Trump did — a list of potential Supreme Court nominees who would vote to limit abortion rights. Now that Roe has fallen, anti-abortion advocates are insisting on more — like a hard commitment to back a federal abortion ban — and they’re holding out until they get it. That means potential Republican presidential hopefuls enter the 2024 cycle under pressure to go farther, putting them in a bind between what GOP primary voters will demand and what general election voters will accept. Read our deep dive on where the contenders stand. Questions? DM me on Telegram at @janjbyun.