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🚀 U.S. CPI Watch: U.S. CPI Jumps 0.9% in March, Highest Since 2022 as Oil Drives Inflation Surge Key TakeawaysU.S. CPI rose 0.9% MoM, largest increase since 2022.Inflation hit 3.3% YoY, fastest pace since 2024.Gasoline accounted for ~75% of the monthly increase.Core CPI (ex-food & energy) slowed to 0.2% MoM.Inflation Surges on Energy ShockLatest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a sharp acceleration in inflation for March, with headline CPI rising 0.9% month-on-month.This marks the largest monthly increase since 2022, highlighting the growing impact of energy prices on the broader economy.Gasoline Prices Drive Majority of IncreaseThe surge in inflation was overwhelmingly driven by rising fuel costs linked to geopolitical tensions.Key detail:Gasoline contributed nearly three-quarters (~75%) of the CPI increaseThe spike reflects the ripple effects of higher oil prices amid the Iran conflict, which has tightened global energy supply.Yearly Inflation Accelerates to 3.3%On a yearly basis:CPI rose 3.3% YoY, the fastest pace since 2024This suggests inflation pressures are re-accelerating after a period of relative stabilization.Core Inflation Shows Signs of CoolingDespite the headline surge, underlying inflation remains more contained:Core CPI (excluding food and energy): +0.2% MoMThis indicates that:Price pressures are still largely energy-drivenBroader inflation may not yet be fully entrenchedMarket ImplicationsThe data presents a mixed signal for markets:Bullish for rates / USD:Strong headline inflationReinforces “higher-for-longer” Fed stanceNeutral-to-positive for risk assets (conditionally):Core inflation remains controlledSuggests inflation spike may be temporary if energy stabilizesEnergy vs Core Inflation BattleThe key question going forward is whether energy-driven inflation spills into the broader economy.Markets will closely watch:Wage growth trendsCore inflation trajectoryOil price stabilityIf energy pressures persist, inflation could remain elevated. If not, the spike may prove temporary.For now, the data reinforces a macro environment of elevated uncertainty, with inflation increasingly tied to geopolitical developments. #USCPI#InflationSurge#EnergyShock#GasolinePrices#OilPrices#CoreCPI#GeopoliticalTensions#USInflation#EconomicData#MarketImplications#HigherForLonger#WageGrowth#RiskAssets#OilPriceStability#2024Inflation

🚀 Federal Reserve's Focus on Core CPI Raises Concerns Among Economists Bloomberg posted on X that the Federal Reserve is expected to scrutinize core CPI, causing concern among economists. Jonathan J. Levin, Allison Schrager, and Keds Economist have expressed apprehension about the implications of this focus. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is a key indicator for assessing inflation trends. Economists worry that the Fed's emphasis on this measure could influence monetary policy decisions, potentially impacting interest rates and economic growth. The discussion highlights the ongoing debate about the best metrics for guiding economic policy and the challenges in balancing inflation control with economic stability. #FederalReserve#CoreCPI#Inflation#MonetaryPolicy#Economics#InterestRates#EconomicGrowth

🚀 U.S. March CPI Rises Sharply Amid Conflict with Iran The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March showed a significant increase, driven by soaring gasoline prices due to the ongoing conflict with Iran. According to Jin10, the seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.9% month-on-month, marking the largest increase since 2022. Data released on Friday indicated that the CPI climbed 0.9% from February, with the year-on-year growth rate accelerating to 3.3%, the fastest pace since 2024. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that the record surge in gasoline prices contributed nearly three-quarters of the monthly CPI increase. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, saw a more modest rise of 0.2% month-on-month. #USCPI#MarchCPI#gasolineprices#Iranconflict#consumerpriceindex#economicdata#inflation#BureauofLaborStatistics#coreCPI#economicgrowth

🚀 Upcoming Release of U.S. and Canadian Economic Data The U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI and core CPI monthly rates, along with the unadjusted CPI and core CPI annual rates, are set to be released shortly. According to Jin10, Canada's March employment figures will also be announced in ten minutes. #US#Canada#EconomicData#CPI#CoreCPI#Employment#MarchData#Inflation

🚀 Market Focus Shifts to U.S.-Iran Talks Amid Inflation Concerns Foreign exchange analyst Giuseppe Dellamotta noted that the market's attention is currently centered on the U.S.-Iran negotiations. According to Jin10, the inflation data for March, widely attributed to the ongoing conflict, is likely to be overlooked as the outcome of the talks takes precedence. While there is significant divergence in predictions for the overall CPI, forecasts for the core CPI are more aligned. The Federal Reserve maintains a neutral stance but has indicated readiness to tighten policies further if inflation expectations rise or if the conflict extends longer than anticipated. The market anticipates a 7 basis point easing by the end of the year, suggesting no changes in interest rates are expected in 2026. #USIranTalks#InflationConcerns#ForeignExchange#CPI#CoreCPI#FederalReserve#InterestRates#MarketFocus#InflationData#PolicyTightening

🚀 U.S. March Core CPI Projections Vary Among Financial Institutions According to Jin10, various financial institutions have released their projections for the U.S. March unadjusted core Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year rate. The previous value was 2.5%, while Reuters had forecasted a 2.7% increase. Norway's DNB projects a 3.0% rise, while BNP Paribas, Capital Economics, Lloyds Bank, and ANZ Bank all forecast a 2.8% increase. Other institutions, including DekaBank, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, ING, JPMorgan, Nomura Securities, Jefferies, RBC, Standard Chartered, TD Securities, SEB, UBS, and Wells Fargo, predict a 2.7% rise. Citigroup and Morgan Stanley expect a 2.6% increase. For the U.S. March seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate, which had a previous value of 0.2% and a Reuters forecast of 0.3%, BNP Paribas, Lloyds, and Spartan Capital predict a 0.4% increase. ANZ Bank, Capital Economics, Commerzbank, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, ING, JPMorgan, Nomura Securities, Moody's Analytics, RBC, Société Générale, Jefferies, Standard Chartered, TD Securities, UBS, and Wells Fargo forecast a 0.3% rise. Citigroup, Mizuho Securities, FHN Financial, and Morgan Stanley expect a 0.2% increase. #US#CPI#financialinstitutions#inflation#forecast#economicprojections#coreCPI#March2026#consumerprices#bankprojections