Politico

Our take: the debate probably won’t significantly change DeSantis’ momentum. We rate this race likely Republican.

We’re 2 weeks out from Election Day and still in the middle of debates. Last night’s showdown between the Florida governor candidates – Republican Ron DeSantis and Democrat Charlie Crist – will most likely be remembered not by what they said but by the questions they ducked.

In Utah, Senate candidates Evan McMullin (an independent) and Mike Lee (the Republican incumbent) clashed over the extent of the latter’s independence from Trump. (This is the campaign our reporter once called “the strangest Senate race in America.”) One last thing you should know: The Roe v. Wade momentum for Dems is fading, and some fear they may have “peaked a little early.” Just 5% of likely voters listed abortion as their most important issue, compared to 40% who cited economic concerns. We’ll be back next week with an update. Catch y’all then 👋

The debate in Georgia between Republican Gov. Brian Kemp and his Dem challenger Stacey Abrams was also heated, particularly over the issue of crime.

Just 3 weeks until Election Day and things are heating up. There were 3 debates last night — and the Ohio Senate one got particularly testy, with Republican J.D. Vance and Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan going after each other over who’s the bigger “ass-kisser” or “suck-up” to their respective party leaders. 👀

We’re four weeks out from the midterm elections and the battle to control the Senate remains a nail-biter. Let’s catch you up on Pennsylvania – 2022’s most-polled state and one of four “toss up” Senate races we’re keeping our eye on ⬇️ Democrat John Fetterman is leading Republican Mehmet Oz by 6 points per the latest USA Today/Suffolk poll — a gap which the GOP managed to narrow after hammering Fetterman with ads calling him soft on crime. Despite the attacks, registered voters trust Fetterman more than Oz to handle crime 45% to 38%, according to a recent Monmouth survey. The two candidates will debate on Oct. 25. As for PA’s governor’s race: Rep. Adam Kinzinger, one of the most prominent Republican critics of Trump in Congress, is endorsing Democrat Josh Shapiro for governor against GOP nominee Doug Mastriano (who ran as a full-throated MAGA warrior in the primary). Shapiro has a fairly comfortable lead in recent polls and has clobbered Mastriano on the airwaves for months largely without a response. We’ll be back next week with an update. As always, email me at [email protected] with any questions or comments. I’d love to know how we can make this space — which is for you! — more useful.

We’ll be back next week with another key update ahead of the November general election. If you have questions in the meantime, send them my way at [email protected]

Either way, some on the right doubt Walker will be able to bluster his way through this in his closely contested race against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. Polls show they’re within the low single digits of each other, and they’re set to meet for their only debate on Oct. 14. Do y’all think Walker will survive this? React with 👍 if you do and 👎 if you don’t.

Alright, we need to talk about Georgia — a must-win swing state that could tip control of the Senate. ICYMI, the political world was rocked last night when The Daily Beast reported GOP Senate nominee Herschel Walker once paid for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion in 2009. (POLITICO didn’t independently verify their reporting.) Walker’s campaign is built on strong family values and an anti-abortion stance — he’s called multiple times for a national ban on the procedure. Walker called the report a “flat-out lie” and threatened to sue. But things got uglier when Walker’s adult son attacked his dad on Twitter.

Do you have a question that you want us to address? Shoot me an email at [email protected] and we’ll put it on our queue. We’ll be back on Tuesday, Oct. 4. See y’all then 👋

Hello, hello! It’s good to be back. The general election is six weeks away — so here’s the plan. Every Tuesday leading up to Nov. 8, we’ll send you a recap of the most important story affecting the midterm landscape. Let’s start with a question that’s hanging over every midterms convo: Are the polls going to be wrong — again? Democratic candidates this year are running way ahead of expectations, according to recent polls. But, let’s put this into context. In 2016, polling was basically a failure. Things got a lot better in 2018. Then came 2020, where polling was off again. Way off. There’s no definitive explanation of exactly what went wrong. But pollsters mostly agree that in 2016 and 2020, they didn’t survey enough Trump voters. Trump isn’t running in the midterms though so there’s a camp of pollsters who hope that “the problems of underestimating Republicans’ vote share will disappear with him,” writes Steve Shepard, our senior elections editor and chief polling analyst. Polling experts have made some changes to avert another 2020-style miss. But there’s fear that those changes — while on the right track — may still not be enough to accurately predict election outcomes. Check out Steve's deep dive into the issue.

Programming note: This wraps up the 2022 primary season so we’ll be pivoting to the general election, which is just 8 weeks away. Stay tuned for what’s next 👀 In the meantime, feel free to send any suggestions and comments – this is Jan at [email protected]. I’d love to hear how we can make this channel more useful and intriguing to you. Thank you for sticking with us this far. Chat with y’all soon 🤝