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US 10-Year Yields Stabilize The US 10-year yield has stabilized near 4.16% after a volatile week as markets digested the Fed decision and forward guidance. The Fed delivered the expected rate cut, but the bigger takeaway was a less hawkish outlook than many were positioned for. Powell made it clear that rate hikes are off the table, with projections pointing to one more cut next year and another in 2027. On top of that, the Fed announced $40B in short-dated Treasury purchases, coming just weeks after ending balance-sheet runoff — a clear move to ease upward pressure on yields and borrowing costs. Why this matters: Higher yields tend to support the dollar. Lower yields typically weaken it. With yields cooling, the macro bias leans toward a softer USD, unless rates reprice higher again. - Alan

Pound Slips as UK Growth Contracts The pound slipped after UK data showed the economy unexpectedly contracted into October. GDP fell 0.1% over the three months and in October alone — a miss versus expectations for flat growth. That said, sterling is still on track for a weekly gain, supported mainly by broad dollar selling as markets price in further Fed easing next year. The bigger question now is whether this slowdown is structural or just a pre-budget dip in activity. The late-November tax-raising budget adds another layer of uncertainty, and clarity won’t come until more data rolls in. All eyes turn to the Bank of England next week. Markets are pricing a ~90% chance of a rate cut after last month’s tight 5–4 hold. Next week’s CPI and labor data will be critical. They’ll drive meaningful volatility in both the pound and gilts. Some are even warning of a stagflation risk — slowing growth with still-sticky inflation — which would be the worst possible setup for the UK economy. - Alan

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