A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

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“Sell America” Risk Creates Headwinds for Stocks S&P futures are down roughly 1.1%, pressing into a key technical zone at the 50-day moving average. A clean break lower, especially if tariff tensions escalate further, risks reopening the door to “Sell America” flows across equities. What’s rattling markets isn’t just tariffs themselves, but how they’re being used. Tying tariffs to national sovereignty — and potentially illegal ones pending a Supreme Court ruling — raises the stakes materially. It puts existing trade agreements into question, with the EU already pausing ratification and uncertainty creeping into U.S.-UK talks as well. So far, the reaction has been controlled risk-off rather than panic. But with equities sitting on major support, markets are increasingly sensitive to any headline that reinforces political risk, trade uncertainty, or a broader loss of confidence in U.S. assets. - Alan

Dollar Slips Against its Safe-Haven Peers DXY is giving back some of last week’s gains and is now back in the crosshairs of the 50-day moving average. The dollar caught a strong bid last week on a run of solid U.S. data, particularly signs of resilience in the labor market. Over the weekend, however, fresh tariff headlines reintroduced risk for U.S. assets. Trump’s renewed tariff threats tied to Europe and Greenland have raised concerns about a potential “Sell America” narrative resurfacing. While not the base case, this scenario would pressure the dollar and Treasurys as investors reassess U.S. political and trade risk. For now, the impact has been modest, but any escalation in trade tensions could push the dollar lower. - Alan

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Bank of Japan Intervention?📊 Chart of the Day: JPY🔥

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VIX Cooling After a Volatile Start to 2026 So far in 2026, volatility has spiked and then resolved. The VIX has since rolled over, signaling that near-term fear has cooled. The year opened with geopolitical flare-ups, policy uncertainty, and headlines around Fed independence drove a sharp risk-off move. But as the week progressed, tensions eased and markets stabilized. Trump stepping back from immediate action on Iran, clarifying he won’t remove Powell, and dialing down escalation risks helped deflate the volatility premium. Energy, gold, FX, and equities all saw sharp moves early in the week, followed by reversals as risk appetite returned. For now, markets have digested the shock, and volatility has compressed. - Alan

Oil Rangebound as Risk Premium Fades Oil is trading mixed and largely rangebound as the market continues to price out near-term supply shocks. The immediate risk of U.S. military action in Iran has faded, and with no follow-through, the geopolitical risk premium is slowly unwinding. That’s keeping traders cautious, but less reactive than earlier in the week. The bigger picture remains bearish-leaning. U.S. crude and gasoline inventories surprised to the upside, Venezuela has resumed exports, and forecasts continue to point to a growing supply surplus. Headlines out of Iran, Venezuela, or geopolitics more broadly are creating short-term volatility, but without sustained physical disruptions, those moves have been fading quickly. Unless there’s a meaningful hit to Russian or Middle Eastern flows — or a clear pickup in Chinese demand — oil is likely to stay stuck in a range, with sentiment driving short bursts and fundamentals capping upside. - Alan