A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Gold Holds Above Breakout Zone, but Upside Remains Capped Gold pulled back early, but price is still holding above key levels after breaking out of its prior range. Right now, it looks to be retesting what could become new support. The issue is confirmation still looks a bit messy, so this move has not fully cleaned up yet. Gold remains supported by broader uncertainty, but the upside is being capped. On one side, ongoing trade-policy uncertainty and geopolitical tension with Iran are still keeping demand for safe havens in the mix. On the other, a firmer U.S. dollar and the prospect of a U.S.-Iran deal are limiting how far gold can run from here. Markets are also weighing the possibility that U.S. rates stay higher for longer, which adds another headwind for bullion. With EdgeFinder showing a neutral reading, gold does not look like a high-conviction trade in either direction right now. So for now, I'll sit back, relax, and wait for the obvious trade. - Alan

71 Days of Chop: S&P 500 Stays Rangebound The S&P 500 has traded choppy for 71 days, with no clear directional conviction. Until price breaks the range, this remains a market that has not fully committed either way. U.S. equities were mixed as markets digested Nvidia earnings and what they mean for the broader AI-driven rally. The S&P 500 was flat, the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%, and the Dow rose 0.5%. Even though Nvidia beat on earnings and revenue, the stock still fell, which shows how much scrutiny is building around the tech sector. Markets are becoming more skeptical that AI capex growth can keep exceeding expectations, and that is making it harder for strong results alone to push the sector higher. Outside of tech, software names also remain under pressure as AI automation raises disruption concerns, while energy stocks softened as U.S.-Iran nuclear talks added uncertainty around sanctions and oil flows. For now, EdgeFinder remains neutral—plenty of movement, but no clear edge. - Alan

Live stream finished (3 hours)

Hot Inflation Lifts RBA Rate Hike Bets AUD/USD is trading higher by roughly 0.8% on the day, pushing up near recent highs. The Aussie is catching a bid after hotter-than-expected inflation data reinforced the case for more RBA tightening this year. Headline CPI came in at 3.8% YoY vs 3.7% expected, while trimmed mean CPI (a key core inflation gauge) rose to 3.4%, above forecasts and December’s 3.3%. The inflation print adds to an already firm domestic backdrop, with recent data showing low unemployment and elevated wage growth. That combination is keeping rate hike expectations alive. Markets are now leaning toward another RBA hike in May (with the cash rate potentially moving to 4.1%) and pricing in a meaningful chance of one more hike later in the year. That said, the RBA remains data-dependent, so incoming inflation and labor data will continue to drive AUD direction. - Alan

Oil Pulls Back on Massive Crude Build, but Bulls Still Eye a Break Above 67 Oil is down 1.04% after fresh EIA data, but price is still holding near recent highs. For now, this looks more like a pullback within strength than a full breakdown. A clean close above 67 could keep upside momentum intact. The move lower followed a major inventory surprise: U.S. crude stocks rose 15.989M barrels (vs. 1.5M expected), the largest weekly build in three years. Cushing and distillates also increased, while gasoline stocks declined. On the geopolitical side, a Hezbollah official said the group would not intervene in limited U.S. strikes on Iran, easing some immediate supply-risk fears. Still, oil remains near seven-month highs as traders look ahead to U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva. Beyond the headlines, oil remains fundamentally supported. Momentum is still strong, and COT data continues to show institutional buying, with a +2.83% positive net change—a sign that big money is still flowing into oil. - Alan

Live stream started

Oil Trade Update📈 Chart of the Day: Oil🔥

Live stream finished (5 hours)

EUR/USD in a Tug-of-War: Which Side Breaks First? EUR/USD remains in a tug-of-war between stronger Eurozone data and renewed U.S. trade pressure. The U.S. rolled out a new 10% global tariff, with reports pointing to a possible move to 15%, keeping uncertainty elevated and supporting the dollar. Trump also warned countries pushing back on trade deals could face higher duties after the European Parliament paused the U.S.-EU trade deal. On the euro side, PMI data surprised to the upside, with stronger manufacturing and services activity. Lagarde also pushed back on early-exit speculation, easing ECB leadership uncertainty. Future inflation data from Germany, France, and Spain will be key for ECB expectations, while the dollar remains supported by Fed minutes showing policymakers are split on the rate path. EdgeFinder shows a -8 bearish reading for EUR/USD. A break below 1.1750 and the 50-day moving average could open the door to further downside. - Alan

Takaichi Doubts BoJ Rate Hikes: Yen Down Sharply The yen weakened on fresh policy headlines, with price rebounding as JPY rate-hike expectations were challenged. PM Takaichi expressed reservations to BOJ Governor Ueda about further rate hikes, which also pushed JGB yields lower. That adds fresh uncertainty to the BOJ outlook and challenges the market’s recent view that Japan was moving toward a clearer tightening path. Before the report, economists and markets were leaning toward more BOJ tightening, with expectations for rates to move higher into mid-year. This headline forces a repricing risk: if political pressure is seen as influencing BOJ policy, confidence in a stronger yen narrative can weaken. At the same time, Japan is still dealing with the tradeoff of a weaker currency—higher import costs for fuel and food vs. support for exports. Markets are also watching how much tolerance authorities have for yen weakness, especially with U.S. officials reportedly involved in recent rate checks. - Alan