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Interest rates are the foundation of currency trading. Higher-yielding currencies tend to attract capital — weaker-yielding currencies tend to get sold. Since FX is always traded in pairs, it all comes down to relative strength and rate differentials. Last week, a heavy tech and speculative unwind dragged markets lower… until sentiment flipped late Friday. A key Fed official leaned dovish, instantly lifting December rate-cut odds and giving risk assets some breathing room. Where We Stand Now: - Traders are entering the week searching for clarity - There’s now a 79.1% probability of a December Fed cut - Yet forward rate projections still show the USD holding the yield advantage into 2026 That keeps USD-based pairs firmly anchored to rate expectations — and makes interest-rate projections one of the most important data points to monitor inside the EdgeFinder. 🚀Get $560 Off The EdgeFinder

Bond Market Says: Cuts Incoming The US 10-Year Treasury yield continued trading lower this morning, reflecting growing confidence in a December rate cut. Yields are drifting lower after the sharp repricing that came with weaker labor data and dovish Fed commentary. The 10-Year is one of the most important benchmarks in global finance. Traders watch it because: - It reflects long-term expectations for inflation and growth - It helps gauge how tight or loose financial conditions are - It heavily influences borrowing costs across the economy — mortgages, corporate debt, and risk appetite If yields keep falling, it reinforces the story that markets expect easier policy ahead — supportive for equities and precious metals, but typically bearish for the US dollar. If yields rebound, it may signal traders are second-guessing the rate-cut narrative or bracing for stronger upcoming data as the shutdown backlog clears. - Alan

Santa Rally Remains Intact The S&P 500 held the 6,500 support zone perfectly on Friday as dip buyers showed up right on cue. For now, the Santa Rally setup remains intact, but last week was a reminder of how fragile sentiment is — rate-cut expectations and AI overvaluation can flip the market fast. Rate-cut bets surged after a key Fed official turned dovish, lifting December cut expectations sharply. At the same time, concerns around stretched tech valuations and speculative froth remain top of mind. With limited data due to the shutdown delays, every new release carries extra weight. Possible Outcomes: - Bull Case: If rate-cut odds stay elevated and volatility cools, the index could continue the seasonal push higher. - Bear Case: Any shift toward hawkish Fed messaging or renewed stress in tech could break the 6,500 zone — opening the door to deeper downside. This week brings retail sales and PPI, key reads heading into the holiday shopping stretch. - Alan

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For years I struggled to stay consistently profitable. Then I discovered a simple—but powerful—system that completely changed my results. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9eIRkvSCX4 In this new video, I break down: - The critical shift that took me from steady losses to over $550,000 in trading profits - Why most traders never find a true edge - The exact process I use to identify high-probability trades If you’ve ever wondered what separates consistently profitable traders from the rest, this is the most important video you’ll watch this year:

BRAND NEW: Credit Spreads Tracker has arrived! Keep an eye on credit conditions. Are they narrowing, and look risk on? Or, are they widening (chart falling), signaling risk off? For the macro traders out there, keep an eye on this chart! For existing EF users, its a free update. Find it under the Market Sentiment section. Enjoy! - Nick