A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

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Gold Stalls Ahead of PCE: Breakout or Pullback Next? Gold remains elevated just shy of $4,200/oz, holding near the upper bound of its recent range. Buyers continue to defend higher lows. Gold is quieter today as global equities catch a bid and safe-haven demand cools off. Traders are largely sidelined ahead of tomorrow’s PCE inflation report and next week’s FOMC meeting, which will set the tone for metals into year-end. Markets now price an 89% probability. Lower rates typically support gold, but with PCE still ahead, buyers are waiting for confirmation. • A soft PCE + dovish Fed → tailwind for gold, potential breakout above $4,200 • Strong data or a hesitant Fed → pullback as risk appetite stays elevated Until then, gold trades in anticipation — not conviction. - Alan

DXY Balances on Its First Line of Defense DXY is resting right on the 38.2% retracement, the first of three key levels that need to hold if the broader bullish structure is going to survive. A clean break below opens up deeper downside — but for now, buyers are still defending the zone. The dollar remains under pressure as traders lean heavily into next week’s Fed meeting, where an 85% chance of a rate cut is already priced in. Soft U.S. data has only cemented the narrative. Adding to the weakness is the growing expectation that Kevin Hassett — a known dove — may be next in line for Fed Chair, reinforcing a more aggressive easing path into 2026. With sentiment stretched and everyone leaning bearish, the key catalyst now is Fed guidance next week. Dovish = continuation lower. Hawkish surprise = sharp snapback. - Alan

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Pound Pushes Higher as USD Slips Ahead of the Fed GBP/USD continues to climb, now pushing toward 1.3350 after clearing recent resistance. Momentum favors buyers for now. The pound caught a bid after the UK’s services PMI was came in beating expectations, keeping the economy in expansion territory. But beneath the headline, growth cooled, employment fell at the fastest pace since February, and price pressures softened to early-2021 lows. Markets still expect a BoE rate cut this month, but the softer inflation backdrop suggests the bank may pause after December — giving GBP a short-term boost as expectations stabilize. Today’s ADP coming in at -32K only reinforces the bearish USD tone for now. With limited U.S. data before the FOMC meeting, the greenback remains vulnerable to further downside. Longer-term, USD will be the beneficiary of the highest real-yield currency against it's major competitors. - Alan

USD/CHF Consolidates as Diverging Policies Take Center Stage USD/CHF is trading this morning but still stuck inside a broad range between 0.8100 and 0.7900. The Swiss Franc continues to trade mostly on risk sentiment rather than policy. The SNB kept rates at 0%, and officials keep repeating that the bar for going negative again is extremely high — meaning no cuts are coming. Swiss inflation continues to stay cool this early morning. Headline CPI came in flat YoY and Core CPI dropped to a four-year low Two straight downside surprises leave inflation below where the SNB expected, but still not enough to push them toward easing. With rates already at zero, the SNB remains reluctant to cut any further, which keeps CHF supported as a safe-haven. The dollar has been under steady pressure after Fed’s Williams essentially endorsed a December rate cut. Also, Hassett — a known dove — is the frontrunner for Fed Chair only accelerated the downside. Markets now price an 89% chance of a December cut. - Alan

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The Bullish Case For Metals💪 Chart of the day: Metals🔥