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New Zealand's Central Bank Flips Neutral NZD/USD rolled over back toward 0.570, snapping a short-lived two-day bounce as geopolitical risk came back into focus. Markets were leaning toward de-escalation, but that quickly repriced after Trump’s address offered no real clarity — instead signaling the conflict could drag on for weeks. Prolonged tension keeps oil elevated, and that feeds directly into the inflation narrative. You’re seeing it translate into broader risk-off sentiment and pressure on growth-sensitive currencies like the Kiwi. From a macro standpoint, the RBNZ is already flagging this. Higher energy costs risk squeezing households and pushing inflation back up. While they’ve said they’ll look through short-term spikes, the tone shifts if energy-driven inflation proves sticky — that’s where rate hike risk comes back into play. In the near term, expectations have cooled. The market now sees the RBNZ holding steady next week, with odds of a May hike dropping sharply. - Alan

S&P 500 Rebounds on Strong Jobs Data, But Key Resistance Still Looms Stocks are catching a bid off the recent lows after a strong labor print surprised markets. The U.S. added 178K jobs in March, crushing expectations and reversing February’s loss — a clear signal the labor market is still holding up. Right now, the economy is showing resilience. But the lagged effects of elevated oil prices haven’t fully hit yet, and that’s where things could shift. In response, traders are already dialing back expectations for Fed cuts into 2026. From a technical standpoint, the key level hasn’t changed — the 200-day moving average. Most major indices are still trading below it. A clean break and sustained hold above signals real strength and potential trend reversal. Until then, structurally, this remains a bear market. - Alan

New Trade💪 Chart of the Day: EUR/USD🔥

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The Chart Behind All The Pain U.S. oil is now trading above $110 — that’s clear escalation territory. At these levels, it’s not just a headline anymore, it starts feeding directly into the inflation narrative and pushing yields higher. The bigger issue is duration. Oil hasn’t just spiked—it’s been elevated for over a month. That’s where things get uncomfortable. Sustained high energy prices bleed into everything—transportation, production, consumer goods. Margins get squeezed, input costs rise, and companies either absorb it or pass it on. Either way, it keeps inflation sticky. For central banks, that’s a problem. It limits their ability to ease and forces a more hawkish stance for longer, which is why yields stay bid. Short spikes can be ignored. Prolonged elevation turns into real economic pressure—and markets start to feel it. - Alan

Markets Reprice Fast After Trump's Speech (Full Coverage) Markets didn’t like what they heard. Trump killed any near-term hopes of de-escalation, and everything repriced fast. Oil ripped higher—Oil up ~14% back above $113—as there’s still no real plan to reopen Hormuz. And once oil moves like that, everything else follows. Equities sold off across the board, bonds got hit, and yields pushed higher as traders started leaning into a “higher for longer” rate environment again. The dollar caught a bid, while gold actually pulled back after its recent run. On rates, expectations shifted pretty aggressively—Fed cuts for 2026 are basically off the table now, while hikes from the BoE and ECB are getting priced in more confidently. There’s also a positioning element here. Going into a long holiday stretch, traders are trimming risk—and the recent pattern says it all: early-week strength gets faded hard into Thursday and Friday. This was a clean risk-off move driven by oil and geopolitics. - Alan

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