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Metals Break Out, Bitcoin Lags Gold and silver remain in strong breakout trends, printing fresh highs with clear upside momentum. Bitcoin, on the other hand, continues to lag — failed bounces, heavy price action, and struggling to reclaim key levels. The divergence is obvious: metals are trending, crypto is stalling. Even with a weaker dollar, Bitcoin isn’t behaving like a hedge. Markets still view BTC as a liquidity-driven risk asset, not a defensive one, while gold and silver are benefiting from classic safe-haven flows. On top of that, rising Japanese yields and the prospect of further BoJ hikes are an added headwind. Bitcoin has been a beneficiary of the yen carry trade — borrowing in a low-yielding currency like JPY to buy higher-return assets. As that funding becomes more expensive, it reduces one of the structural tailwinds that previously supported crypto demand. - Alan

Aussie Hits Fresh Highs on Rate Hike Bets AUD/USD is pushing above 0.706, marking fresh multi-year highs as rate hike bets heat up. Hot inflation data and a surprise drop in unemployment have markets now heavily pricing a near-term RBA hike, with major banks leaning toward tightening and rates seen moving higher through the year. Gold ripping to record levels is also fueling the Aussie, given Australia’s export exposure, while broad USD weakness tied to intervention talk, Trump headlines, and macro uncertainty is adding another tailwind. A few still argue the core inflation print may not be strong enough to force the RBA’s hand, but momentum right now is clearly with the bulls. - Alan

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Oil Climbs as Iran Risk Premium Builds Oil reclaimed the $63/bbl area, hitting its highest in months as geopolitical risk premiums jumped back into play. Renewed U.S. threats toward Iran — including talk of a naval “armada” heading to the region — have traders pricing in the potential for supply disruption, keeping oil on a firmer footing despite ongoing bearish supply forecasts and inventory builds. While the broader market still faces a looming supply glut this year, the specter of Middle East conflict alongside U.S. naval deployments and sanctions against Iran-linked tankers has injected a fresh risk premium into crude. That premium has offset bearish fundamentals for now, supporting a multi-week upswing in WTI — even though prices remain sensitive to swings in geopolitical tension - Alan

Dollar Slide Could Influence EU Rates The dollar tried to stabilize, but it’s still on pace for its worst week since April as confidence in the U.S. continues to erode. Trump brushed off the recent slide, calling the dollar “great,” which traders took as a green light to keep selling ahead of the Fed decision. Capital is rotating out of the U.S. — other currencies and gold are ripping as investors grow uneasy about U.S. policy direction, trade tensions, and questions around Fed independence. Meanwhile, European officials are now getting uncomfortable with euro strength, saying it could weigh on inflation and even influence future rate decisions. What makes this move notable is that it’s not driven by weak U.S. growth — the economy is still running hot. This is more of a confidence story than a fundamentals story, and as long as policy uncertainty stays high, dollar pressure can persist. - Alan

Unbelievable... Gold breaking out once again! - Nick

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The Dollar Is Tanking📊 Chart of the Day: EUR/USD🔥

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