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Dollar Flexes as Powell Pours Cold Water on December Cut The DXY extended higher post-Fed, now trading around 99.6, breaking above key resistance and pushing toward the psychological 100.00 mark. Momentum remains bullish, supported by firm U.S. yields — the 10-year Treasury sits near 4.10%, its highest since early October. The Fed delivered a 25bps rate cut, but Chair Powell’s comments stole the show — making clear that December’s cut “is not a foregone conclusion.” The split vote within the committee underscored internal uncertainty: one member wanted no cut, another pushed for a deeper 50bps move. Meanwhile, the Fed will end quantitative tightening (QT) in December, shifting MBS runoff into Treasuries — a structural shift to support liquidity, though the hawkish tone dominated market reaction. Odds of another cut in December dropped to roughly 68%, down from 96% pre-meeting. The hawkish repricing boosted both the Dollar and yields.

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🚨BREAKING: Powell strikes a hawkish tone. The Fed Chair said today’s rate cut was “risk management,” emphasizing that a December cut is far from certain. He noted divisions within the committee and signaled the Fed will likely pause to assess data before making its next move. Markets reacted fast — rate futures dropped and traders slashed odds of a December cut from 90% to just 71%.

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CENTRAL BANK MOVE The Bank of Canada cut rates to 2.25% as expected, citing damage from U.S. tariffs and weaker demand. Governor Macklem struck a cautious tone, warning that monetary policy has limited power to boost growth while keeping inflation in check. The BoC now sees inflation averaging 2% in 2025 and GDP growth slowing further — signaling more pressure ahead for the CAD.

Gold Reclaims $4,000 Ahead of Fed Decision Gold slipped through the $4,000 support zone earlier this week but has since climbed back into the level ahead of the Fed meeting. The metal’s rebound comes as traders await the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, where a 25bps cut is fully priced in. Attention now shifts to Jerome Powell’s comments for any clues on further easing in December. Rate cuts generally support non-yielding assets like gold, especially against a backdrop of central bank accumulation and ongoing geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, progress in U.S.–China trade talks could slightly reduce safe-haven demand, though gold’s longer-term appeal remains attractive. A hawkish Powell could send gold back below $4,000, triggering follow-through selling toward $3,950 or lower. But if the Fed signals a more dovish path, gold could attract fresh inflows and retest recent highs near $4,100–$4,150 as traders pile back into safe-haven trades.