A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Oil Whipsaws Lower on Iran Talk Hopes After Weekend Spike Oil opened higher Sunday but saw a sharp reversal lower, with a fast breakdown into the U.S. session. The move was aggressive, with Brent briefly slipping below $100 and WTI toward the high $80s, before attempting to stabilize. Expect continued volatility as markets search for direction. This was a headline-driven unwind. Initial strength flipped into a 10%+ selloff after Trump signaled progress in talks with Iran and delayed strikes on key energy infrastructure. That immediately pulled out the war risk premium priced into crude. But the move didn’t fully stick—Iranian media pushed back on the “productive talks,” leaving markets in limbo. Now it’s a tug-of-war between de-escalation hopes and ongoing uncertainty. Oil is trading purely off headlines right now. Equities, metals, FX, and oil all whipsawed hard. Until there’s clarity, expect unstable price action. - Alan

$2 TRILLION Wiped Out From Gold and Silver, Could It Continue? Gold is still under pressure, down for a ninth straight session and sitting near multi-month lows. Even after trimming some losses, price action remains weak with no real sign of a sustained bounce. This is a macro unwind driven by higher yields and hawkish central banks. Gold and silver saw massive liquidation as Middle East tensions pushed yields sharply higher, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. There was a brief relief bounce after Trump delayed strikes on Iran, but it wasn’t enough to shift the trend. Inflation fears tied to oil and the conflict are keeping central banks on edge, with markets now even pricing the risk of a Fed hike by year-end, while the ECB, BoE, and BoJ all signal tightening if needed. On top of that, there’s growing talk that governments could liquidate gold reserves to manage economic fallout—adding another layer of downside pressure. - Alan

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Target 2 hit on NZD/USD signal! 🔥 All out. +145 pips or so! - Nick

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Oof meter⚖️ S&P500: -7.3% from the highs NASDAQ: -9.1% from the highs DOW: -9.8% from the highs Russell2k: -11.2% from the highs Bitcoin: -45% from the highs Silver: -44.3% from the highs 💀 Gold: -20% from the highs

Nas is threatening a pretty ugly looking close today, failing to hold the 200 day moving average and possibly this critical area of support. Definitely concerning, with oil spiking into the close. That said: reminder that often we will see a bid up on oil prices prior to a weekend, as short sellers cover to avoid holding a possible gap up move. Same with equities - people may be choosing to sell in order to not carry the overnight risk. - Nick

Expecting Rate Cuts?😮 Chart of the Day: NAS100🔥

Kiwi Rises on Hawkish Central Bank Pricing, but Growth May Override The Move The Kiwi caught a bid as major central banks broadly leaned hawkish, helping support most majors yesterday, including NZD/USD. Under the surface though, the backdrop is less encouraging. New Zealand GDP came in weaker than expected, pointing to a still-fragile recovery, while ongoing Middle East tensions add another layer of risk to the growth outlook. At the same time, inflation concerns are building, with markets now pricing a 50% chance the RBNZ could begin hiking as soon as May, with tighter policy more fully priced by September and December. That is the problem for the Kiwi longer term. Inflation and weak growth are a bad mix. While the hawkish shift helped lift NZD in the short run, the broader macro backdrop still keeps the currency under pressure. For now, NZD is up nearly 2% on the week and is on pace to snap a two-week losing streak. - Alan