A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Oil Climbs on Iran Risk, But Supply Glut Could Cap the Move WTI is pushing back toward $65, up over 2.7%. But price is running into a zone where supply previously stepped in — this area could act as near-term resistance if follow-through stalls. The bid is coming from rising geopolitical risk. Headlines point to the U.S. potentially intercepting Iranian oil shipments and even adding another carrier group if nuclear talks break down. Traders are pricing the risk that failed negotiations could disrupt Iranian supply or trigger retaliation in key shipping lanes. However, the upside is being checked by fundamentals on the supply side. U.S. inventories reportedly surged by 13.4M barrels last week — a massive build if confirmed — reinforcing the broader narrative that the market is still facing surplus conditions. On deck: OPEC’s monthly outlook and the IEA report, both of which have warned that supply could outpace demand this year. If tensions cool, the recent spike in OIL could be faded quickly. - Alan

Blowout NFP Report Surprises at 130K Added Jobs Dollar Index bounced cleanly off the $96 support level we highlighted. That level held, and price is now rotating higher as buyers step back in. Strong U.S. labor data gave the dollar fuel. NFP printed 130K vs 70K expected, and unemployment ticked down to 4.3%. That reinforces the “resilient economy” narrative and supports the idea that the Fed can stay patient on cuts. Traders reduce bets on Fed rate cuts for June and fully price in the next cut by July. EdgeFinder's scenario backtests show that 25%+ upside NFP surprises have historically aligned with sustained USD strength, with forward DXY returns improving over longer horizons. - Alan

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How to Trade with the EdgeFinder Our best tips to get the most out of your EdgeFinder free week: 1️⃣Step 1: Identify Opportunities Start by visiting the Top Setups page, where the EdgeFinder highlights assets with the strongest bullish and bearish scores. These rankings are based on a combination of fundamental factors, helping you quickly spot potential trade setups. 2️⃣Step 2: Confirm with Your Analysis Compare the EdgeFinder’s top-rated setups with your own technical analysis. Does an asset align with your trading strategy? Look for confluence between the EdgeFinder’s insights and your preferred indicators, chart patterns, or price action signals. 3️⃣Step 3: Make an Informed Decision Once you’ve found a setup that matches your analysis, consider refining your entry and exit points based on support, resistance, and risk management principles. Use the EdgeFinder’s in-depth data to strengthen your conviction before placing a trade. Important things to Consider: A strong bullish or bearish rating doesn’t mean a trade should be taken. The EdgeFinder is a tool to support your analysis, not replace it. ✔️ Strategy Alignment – Only trade setups that fit your strategy. ✔️ Technical Confirmation – Look for confluence with key levels and trends. ✔️ Market Conditions – Be aware of news events and volatility. ✔️ Risk Management – Always use stop losses and proper sizing. There are times when a setup looks strong, but we choose not to trade because it doesn’t align with our approach. Use the EdgeFinder to enhance your decision-making, not dictate it.

S&P 500 Reclaims Highs as Market Rotation Broadens The S&P 500 has fully recovered from the recent ~4% pullback and is now trading just below the $7,000 handle. Moves typically slow as markets wait for fresh catalysts. Futures are flat as investors balance softer retail sales — signaling a more fragile consumer — against ongoing AI capex optimism. The weak spending data pulled yields lower and increased bets on multiple Fed cuts this year. CPI and jobs data later this week will be key for direction. Under the surface, leadership is rotating. The index is benefiting from flows broadening beyond mega-cap tech, with equal-weight exposure strengthening — a healthier market structure. AI names remain supported (Nvidia bid on strong TSMC data), while some consumer-linked names are under pressure. The S&P is holding up, but macro data will decide whether this rotation turns into sustained upside or stalls near highs. - Alan

DXY Testing Key Support Going Into Major Data DXY is sitting right on support near the 96 handle, picking up some pressure after this morning’s soft Retail Sales print. Price is in a decision zone, and this level matters. Retail Sales came in flat (0.0% vs 0.4% expected), taking a bit of shine off the U.S. growth story. That said, the real movers this week are NFP and CPI — markets are likely in wait-and-see mode until those hit. Price action often stalls ahead of major releases. A net-negative read on the dollar could break 96 and open the door to fresh lows, while strong data could spark a broader USD rebound. - Alan

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