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New Zealand Falls After Mixed Jobs The New Zealand dollar eased back toward $0.602 after recently trading near a seven-month high, as a mixed labor report failed to materially shift the policy outlook. The unemployment rate climbed to 5.4% — the highest since 2015 — signaling ongoing slack, but quarterly employment growth came in stronger than expected at +0.5%, suggesting the labor market may be stabilizing rather than deteriorating further. Overall, the numbers landed close to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s forecasts, reinforcing the view that policymakers are in no rush to adjust rates. The official cash rate is widely expected to remain at 2.25% at the upcoming meeting. Markets have dialed back near-term tightening bets, with the first 25bp hike now largely pushed to September at the earliest, while many economists still lean toward a move closer to year-end if growth and inflation firm up. - Alan

Crypto Continues Its Slow Bleed Bitcoin is sitting around $74K, right on a major support zone. This is a line in the sand — a clean break below it opens the door to a much deeper downside move. Price has been slowly bleeding as Japanese tightening risk stays in play. With JGB yields elevated, the BTC carry trade (borrow cheap yen, buy higher-return assets like Bitcoin) is getting more expensive. That squeeze is forcing some leveraged players to unwind, which adds steady selling pressure. On top of that, “crypto winter” sentiment is creeping back in. Historically, as the cycle ages, upside momentum fades, volatility rises, and rallies get sold faster. Another layer of risk is large holder stress. If major players start slipping deeper into unrealized losses (e.g., highly levered corporate holders), it can weigh on sentiment. Though relatively small in the grand scheme of things, it can accelerate downside flows if confidence cracks. For now, this support is holding. - Alan

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Gold Up or Down? Perhaps Neither. Gold and silver are bouncing hard after a brutal washout. Price went parabolic, then got flushed — now we’re seeing a relief bounce. But it’s too early to call it a full recovery. Gold and silver haven’t reached key retracement zones yet, which could offer bears another chance to press for a second leg lower. Warsh’s nomination sparked the initial dump — less dovish Fed expectations + USD rebound pulled safe-haven demand out of metals. That dollar pop is stalling now, giving metals room to breathe. Bigger picture hasn’t changed much: macro uncertainty + allocation demand still intact, and banks are still floating upside targets (some even talking $6k gold). This looks more like a violent positioning reset than a structural trend break. If anything, it’s reasonable to expect price to stall and consolidate until the next “pain trade” emerges that safe-havens can feed off. - Alan

RBA Warns of Sticky Inflation AUD ripped higher, up over 1%, as buyers stepped in on the rate surprise. Yield-sensitive flows are driving the move, putting the Aussie back in demand against lower-yielding peers. The RBA delivered a 25bp hike to 3.85% — its first increase in two years — reversing part of 2025’s easing cycle and signaling inflation remains sticky. Policymakers also lifted their inflation forecasts and effectively acknowledged the path back to target will be slow. Markets now price roughly an 80% chance of another hike in May, with additional tightening possible later this year. Yields across the Australian curve jumped, reinforcing the Aussie’s appeal as a higher-yielding currency in the G10 space. The next level of resistance lies at 0.71500, within the broader 0.69500 zone. - Alan

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US Manufacturing PMIs came in way strong! DXY is loving it.

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