A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

AUD/USD Climbs as Risk Rebounds AUD/USD continues grinding higher with risk appetite returning. Price is pushing back toward the upper range, with the next key zone sitting near the 0.71 area. Momentum favors the upside for now, but extended equity or metals weakness could quickly stall the move. The Aussie is riding the rebound in global equities and precious metals, both key drivers for the currency. Last week’s RBA hike is still feeding yield support, and markets now price roughly a three-in-four chance of another increase in May, with further tightening expected later in the year. Domestic data was mixed — household spending softened, but volumes held up, backing the RBA’s view that demand hasn’t rolled over. Direction from here likely hinges on U.S. data and guidance from RBA officials this week. - Alan

Yen Rebounds After Election — But Risks Still Linger USD/JPY saw a pullback as the yen caught a bid to start the week, snapping a six-day losing streak. The pair had pushed toward recent highs but is now correcting, with momentum cooling short term as markets reassess positioning after the election outcome. The yen firmed following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election victory, though the broader outlook remains mixed. Her pro-growth, potentially stimulus-heavy agenda raises concerns about Japan’s fiscal path, which typically weighs on the currency, but it could also fuel inflation and pull forward expectations for further Bank of Japan rate hikes. Officials have reiterated they are watching FX moves closely, keeping intervention risk in the background and limiting extreme upside in USD/JPY. Near term, volatility is likely as markets balance fiscal expansion, debt concerns, and the policy response from the BoJ. - Alan

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Dollar Tests Key Resistance as Markets Await Jobs Data DXY is pressing into a key resistance zone near 98. This area could act as a ceiling in the near term, with price likely to stall or react unless fresh bullish catalysts emerge. The dollar is holding near two-week highs despite softer labor signals, including job openings falling to a five-year low. Markets are looking past that weakness for now, focusing instead on the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report and a broader risk-off tone after the sharp tech-led equity selloff tied to AI spending concerns. Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair has also supported the greenback, as traders expect a more restrictive policy bias and firmer defense of central bank independence. Rate markets are not fully pricing the next Fed cut until June, which keeps yield support under the dollar. If jobs data comes in resilient, the dollar could attempt to break above resistance; a miss would challenge this recovery. - Alan

USD/JPY Drifts Higher Post Election USD/JPY remains elevated near the 157 area, with the yen steady but still on track for a weekly loss of over 1%. The pair is holding firm after giving back much of January’s intervention-driven yen rally, showing that upside pressure on USD/JPY is still intact into the weekend. The yen is weighed down by political risk as digest Japan’s lower house elections. Expectations that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will push for higher spending and tax cuts are raising fiscal sustainability concerns, keeping pressure on JPY. Investors are also looking ahead to next week’s Q4 GDP data for signs of a rebound, while earlier - Alan

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