A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

We just dropped something super exciting, thanks in part to recommendations from some members here! 📣 Brand new: COT Trends tab within EdgeFinder! Leveraging the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, this dashboard tracks institutional accumulation and distribution trends across weekly, monthly, and quarterly horizons. By analyzing these shifts, you can pinpoint the directional bias of "smart money" and identify where major institutions are positioning themselves over time.

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A Directional Bias On Dollar Can't Be Made Right Now. DXY is stuck in a tug-of-war right now with no clear directional bias. On one side, failed negotiations and lingering geopolitical tension are giving the dollar some support as a safe haven. On the other, any optimism around a resolution keeps risk currencies bid, which caps upside in the dollar. That’s the push-pull dynamic driving price. According to a BofA survey, investors aren’t fully buying into dollar strength — if anything, there’s a growing conviction that the move higher is temporary. The broader view is that once geopolitical risk fades, the Fed leans dovish, which puts pressure on the dollar longer term. That’s why you’re seeing reluctance to go long. Short dollar is building as a higher conviction trade, while markets continue to favor risk and front-end rate exposure. Technically, this results in choppy price action. Until there’s clarity on geopolitics or Fed direction, DXY remains rangebound. - Alan

Oil Is Chopping Around, But Nonetheless Still Elevated Oil is ripping higher again, back above $100, as markets reprice geopolitical risk following the collapse in U.S.–Iran talks. The U.S. move to block access to Iranian-linked flows through Hormuz adds another layer of tension to an already constrained route. On paper, increased control over the strait should ease supply concerns — but that’s not how markets are reading it. The added risk of retaliation and broader regional conflict is keeping a strong risk premium baked into price. That’s what’s driving the move higher. Fundamentally, the backdrop is still tight. The strait has effectively been restricted for weeks, OPEC output has dropped sharply, and while Saudi is restoring some capacity, it’s not enough to fully offset disruptions. From a macro lens, this keeps inflation risk elevated and growth concerns in play. Higher energy prices continue to complicate the policy outlook. - Alan

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