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Pag. 11 di 84 · 1,004 post
Pubblicato 16 apr
So... we have ANOTHER COT Chart Dropping today: back-to-back! We've renamed this to "COT Trends", and the other new COT chart to "COT Velocity" Visualize institutional accumulation and distribution using the latest COT data. This tool plots net long exposure over time, allowing you to track "Smart Money" momentum across multiple assets simultaneously. Toggle symbols to compare historical positioning and identify high-conviction trends. - Nick
Pubblicato 15 apr
Pubblicato 15 apr
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Pubblicato 15 apr
Risk Currencies Are Getting Bid Up. Here's an update on AUD. AUD/USD is pushing back toward relative highs as ceasefire extensions and continued progress in talks bring risk back into the market. You’re seeing capital rotate back into risk-sensitive currencies, with the Aussie leading. On the macro side, AUD has an added tailwind — the RBA already has a tightening bias due to elevated inflation. That yield advantage, combined with improving sentiment, is supporting the move higher. Markets are now looking ahead to jobs data. A strong print reinforces the case for another hike and adds fuel to the rally. A miss, though, shifts the narrative quickly — especially with signs that growth could be slowing, putting the RBA in a tougher position. Technically, momentum is to the upside, but it’s data-dependent from here. The next leg will be driven by whether the macro can validate the move. - Alan
Pubblicato 15 apr
Gold Stabilizes as Weaker Dollar and Ceasefire Progress Offer Support Gold is holding 14% off all-time highs as markets weigh progress in U.S.–Iran talks. There’s growing momentum toward extending the ceasefire, but uncertainty still lingers — especially with continued military presence in the region. The move higher is being supported by a weaker dollar and a more cautious Fed tone. As rate expectations ease, that takes some pressure off gold and helps stabilize price. That said, the bigger picture hasn’t fully flipped. Gold is still down meaningfully from earlier in the conflict, as higher yields and tighter policy have capped upside in a non-yielding asset. For gold to really get back in play, you need a clean shift — lower yields, a more dovish central bank stance, and easing inflation pressures. Most of that likely comes with a full resolution to the conflict. - Alan
Pubblicato 15 apr
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Pubblicato 15 apr
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Pubblicato 14 apr
Pubblicato 14 apr
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Pubblicato 14 apr
The Market Is Now Positive On The Year PPI came in cooler than expected across the board — but still too hot for the Fed. Inflation at the producer level is easing on the margin, but it’s not anywhere near the 2% target, with energy continuing to drive most of the upside. This doesn’t give the Fed a reason to cut anytime soon. If anything, it reinforces the shift back toward inflation concerns over growth. But markets don’t care. Equities are pushing higher regardless, with the S&P now sitting just ~1% off all-time highs. This is a sentiment-driven move, not one backed by clean macro alignment. That’s where risk comes in. You’re chasing price into highs while inflation is still elevated and the Iran situation remains unresolved. Technically, upside is stretched. In this “hopium” environment (thanks @ the_contrarian for this perfect verbage), patience matters — waiting for a meaningful pullback is the higher probability play. - Alan
Pubblicato 14 apr
No Resolution + Double Blockade? It Doesn't Matter for USD DXY is extending its selloff, on track for its longest losing streak in months as markets lean back toward a softer dollar narrative. The key driver here is progress on the geopolitical front. Ongoing engagement between the U.S. and Iran, with talks expected to resume, is gradually improving sentiment around a potential resolution. That shift is pulling safe-haven demand out of the dollar and driving the move lower. There are still points of tension — port blockades and Hormuz disruptions remain — but markets are choosing to focus on the direction of travel. Incremental progress in negotiations is enough to keep pressure on the dollar. Technically, momentum is clearly to the downside. As long as negotiations continue to move forward, rallies are likely to be faded. - Alan
Pubblicato 14 apr
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