A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

For my FX junkies, this one’s for you. FX is tricky right now for two reasons: 1. We don’t know how deep the risk-off move will be. 2. Each currency has a different role. The best setups come from pairing a very strong currency against a very weak one. That means understanding how each currency is likely to behave in this geopolitical backdrop. Risk-Off (likely stronger at the open): USD, CHF, JPY. A pair like USD/CHF can help show the severity of the move. If CHF is clearly outperforming USD, that signals a real flight to safety. Risk-On (likely weaker at the open): AUD and NZD are the two main risk-on currencies likely to bleed. I’ve already seen AUD/CHF quoted down 1.11% pre-market. EUR, GBP, and CAD may also come under pressure as USD catches a bid. With that in mind, avoid trading pairs that serve the same role. CHF/JPY may stay flat because both are safe havens. AUD/NZD may also stay flat because both are risk-on. Cheers - Alan

Tips to survive: 1. In a market with lots of panic, surprise resolutions, and re-escalations, low size and wide stops are how you survive. 2. Just because there’s a gap doesn’t mean there will be follow-through immediately after. How many times have you been right on direction with a big catalyst, only for price to go against you, squeeze you out, and then finally move in that direction? (I know I’ve experienced this.) 3. If you’re in profit, don’t be greedy. Trail stops, because the world desperately wants resolution. Any sign of it will cause corrective pricing. 4. If you’re not already in the top three trades (long oil, long gold, long USD), it’s best to stay out during the open. Finally, there are 252 trading days in a year. Tonight is not for the naive, ill-equipped, or traders looking to retire by the end of the day. Stay safe. - Alan

In about an hour, markets will start to open, most likely with some gaps. Remember, this is going to be an oil move first and foremost, with restricted supply and risk-off being the cause. The severity of safe-haven demand will follow second. I see the usual gap risk: S&P, Nasdaq, EM, AUD, CAD all OFF in that order. Oil, Gold, USD ripping in that order. USD will likely catch a bid (ex-JPY), which should be the true metric of risk-off. If that tanks, it’s real and might have legs. If you are not experienced in this kind of gap risk, tonight is not for you.

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DXY Holds Firm as Sticky Inflation Delays Fed Cut Expectations DXY is holding above 97.7, but the bigger level remains 98. The dollar still needs a clean break and hold above 98 to show real strength. Until then, this looks more like stabilization than a true breakout. The dollar stayed firm this week as hotter-than-expected inflation reinforced the view that the Fed may stay on hold longer. January PPI rose 0.5% MoM, above both December’s 0.4% and the 0.3% forecast, signaling that price pressures are still sticky. Labor data also came in supportive, with both initial and continuing jobless claims below expectations, pointing to a stable labor market. That stronger data has pushed rate-cut expectations back. Markets are still pricing in at least two cuts this year, but the first is now fully priced for July instead of June. Traders are also watching potential tariff increases from 10% to 15% for some countries, along with ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks next week. - Alan

USD/CHF Drops as Safe-Haven Flows Boost the Swiss Franc USD/CHF is under heavy pressure, down 0.88% on the day, as flows rotate into safe havens. The Swiss franc is catching a strong bid as risk sentiment softens and investors look for safety. Switzerland’s low inflation, strong fiscal backdrop, and reputation for stability continue to make CHF one of the market’s preferred safe-haven currencies. The franc has already surged to multi-year highs in recent months, and the broader backdrop still supports that strength. Investors continue to favor Switzerland’s stable economy, modest debt, and predictable policy environment, especially against ongoing U.S. policy uncertainty and rising geopolitical risk. A stronger franc always raises the question of SNB intervention, since excessive strength can add deflation pressure. But for now, markets seem to believe the central bank is less willing to lean against CHF strength, which is helping keep the franc supported. - Alan

We're LIVE on YouTube right now, currently going over some currency pair setups. Join us here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lK4fIIGsBG4

Long awaited! We have officially added the currency indices to the EdgeFinder! 🚀🎉 Why did we add these? 1. This gives our traders the chance to take out the counterparty specific comparison to another currency. If, for example, you wanted to analyze the current economic strength/weakness of the US-Dollar, you could study the index itself rather than individual crosses vs. the USD. 2. A specific currency can be closely analyzed under the Asset Scorecard tab 🔥 3. For futures traders that trade contracts specifically on a particular currency, this helps to isolate the readings EdgeFinder is producing. Enjoy! 🧙‍♂️

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