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Uncertainty Ahead🤔 Chart of the Day: XAU/USD🔥

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DXY: Trade Policy Noise Meets a Strong Fundamental Backdrop Last week, the index briefly pushed into the 98 handle—a key area that could act as resistance. If DXY can break and hold above 98, it opens the door toward 100. If it fails, the move could fade back toward recent lows. On the policy front, Trump raised the new Section 122 tariffs to 15% over the weekend after the Supreme Court struck down the country-specific tariffs that had been implemented under IEEPA about 10 months ago. That said, he did not clarify whether this changes existing trade deals. Beyond the headlines, the fundamentals still lean supportive for the dollar versus major peers. EdgeFinder’s Eco Surprise Index has USD with the second-highest reading, signaling U.S. data is outperforming relative to most others. With inflation expectations easing last week and rates unchanged, USD still offers the strongest real-yield backdrop. - Alan

Oil Tests Breakout as Geopolitical Risk and Diplomacy Battle for Control Oil is breaking out of a key resistance zone near recent highs. A break/retest setup could hold if the fundamentals continue to support Oil. Oil is trading in a tug-of-war between geopolitical risk and diplomatic de-escalation. On one hand, the market is still carrying some risk premium tied to U.S.–Iran tensions and potential disruption risks. On the other hand, talks are progressing, with Iran signaling a possible “win-win” outcome. There’s also a macro demand headwind in the background: renewed tariff escalation (including the push toward a 15% global tariff level) adds another layer of uncertainty to the global growth/demand outlook, which can limit how far oil runs even when geopolitics are supportive. Beyond the headlines, oil’s fundamentals remain strong, with EdgeFinder showing a bullish reading. A breakout could remain supported if the fundamental score continues to hold. Keep an eye on EdgeFinder for confirmation. - Alan

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