A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Kiwi Down 1%, Traders Dials Back Near-Term Hike Urgency NZD/USD is down ~1% on the day, fading back from recent highs as rate expectations cool. The selloff puts the pair back on the back foot near its near-term support zone, with momentum shifting bearish until buyers reclaim the post-RBNZ breakdown area. The kiwi is weaker after the RBNZ held the cash rate at 2.25% and reiterated a still-accommodative stance while policy “gradually normalises.” The key issue: markets were positioned for a more hawkish signal. While the RBNZ did lift its projected track slightly (rates averaging ~2.4% in Q4), it wasn’t hawkish enough to justify aggressive front-end pricing—so traders scaled back near-term hike bets (first hike odds pushed out toward late-year, ~70% by October). Focus now shifts to Gov. Anna Breman’s press conference for any clarity on timing: whether the Bank leans toward a Q4 hike baseline, or leaves the door open to earlier tightening. - Alan

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Canadian Tailwinds Are Starting to Fade USD/CAD is bouncing as CAD cools off. After briefly testing late-January 16-month highs, the pair is now holding the 1.3600 support zone — a level that’s been defended six times before. Canada’s inflation pulse softened. January CPI slowed to 2.3% and the BoC trimmed mean eased to 2.4%, helped by a 16.7% YoY drop in gasoline and cooling shelter inflation. That keeps the BoC comfortable at 2.25% and flattens the expected rate path, reducing CAD’s yield support. On top of that, oil is losing its bid as OPEC+ weighs bringing back supply in April, which pressures Canada’s terms-of-trade tailwind and takes some oxygen out of the loonie. Also, Iran’s prime minister said the U.S. and Iran have reached an understanding on the main principles, which has helped unwind some of the risk premium priced into oil. - Alan

GBP/USD Slides Into Key Support on Softer UK Jobs GBP/USD is down ~0.80% this morning, trading right into a key support confluence: the 50-Day MA and the 1.3520 zone. A hold can stabilize price, but a clean break opens the door to a deeper pullback. UK labor data softened again. Unemployment rose to 5.2% (highest since 2020), while wage growth cooled — including private-sector pay, which the BoE watches closely. That combo strengthens the case for more BoE cuts, with March increasingly in focus and markets leaning toward additional easing later this year. Next catalyst is Wednesday’s UK inflation print, expected to cool to ~3.0% YoY, which would further support the “cuts incoming” narrative. The needle has shifted against GBP: it’s now the only major FX pair showing a bearish EdgeFinder reading of -6. - Alan

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Gold Holds the Line Near $5,000 as Rate-Cut Narrative Builds Gold is hovering around the $5,000 handle, still range-bound between roughly $4,700 and $5,100. After last week’s indecision, EdgeFinder has flirted with a bullish reading for Gold, suggesting macro may be shifting in favor of the metal — though a clear break from the range is still needed for confirmation. Last week’s CPI cooled more than expected, reinforcing the rate-cut narrative. Markets now price roughly 63 bps of Fed easing this year, or about two cuts, with July seen as the likely starting point. That backdrop is constructive for gold, which benefits as falling rates lower the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Attention now turns to the Fed’s meeting minutes on Wednesday — any hint of urgency around easing could be the catalyst gold needs to re-accelerate. - Alan

USD/JPY, Double Bottom or Not? USD/JPY is bouncing early Monday after last week’s ~3% drop. With U.S. markets closed, liquidity is thin. The pair is now sitting near a potential double bottom around 152.5 — a level that’s becoming technically important. A clean break below would open the door to a deeper downside move, while holding keeps near-term stabilization in play. The yen is giving back some strength after Japan’s GDP showed barely positive growth (0.2% annualized), reminding markets that the post-election backdrop still comes with economic fragility. With the political dust settling, the yen has shifted back to trading more on data than headlines. The BoJ remains cautious — March hike odds sit near 20% — and if policymakers use recent yen strength to stay gradual, the risk of renewed JPY weakness and long-end bond volatility remains. Later this week brings Japan CPI and U.S. PCE, key inflation reads that will shape the rate outlook for both economies. - Alan

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