A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

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DXY Holds $96 as CPI Softens, Market Awaits PCE DXY is barely reacting to today’s softer CPI print. The dollar remains just above the $96 support zone. CPI YoY came in 0.1% better than expected, moving inflation slightly closer to the Fed’s 2% target. June cut odds rose to 69% (from 63%), and markets now price about 61 bps of easing. Despite the softer CPI print, the dollar isn’t fading. In fact, the broader picture arguably looks better for DXY. This week’s stronger NFP and unemployment data were bullish catalysts. Cooler CPI is a mild headwind, but more of a trade-off than a net negative. Assuming no immediate change in monetary policy, U.S. real yields have improved as inflation expectations ease while nominal rates remain steady. That dynamic can continue to support the dollar until markets begin pricing more aggressive cuts or policy expectations materially shift toward June. Relative to other major peers, the U.S. still maintains a real yield advantage. All eyes now shift to PCE next week - Alan

USD/CAD Holds as Oil Slumps and Surplus Fears Weigh on Loonie USD/CAD is holding its weight as the Canadian dollar comes under pressure. Yesterday's broader risk-off flows in equities and commodities are weighing on CAD, keeping the pair supported in the near term. Oil — one of Canada’s key exports — dropped roughly 3% toward $62 after the IEA cut its 2026 global demand forecast and reiterated expectations for a record supply surplus of 3.7M barrels per day. Inventories are expanding at the fastest pace since 2020, reinforcing the oversupply narrative. At the same time, easing geopolitical tensions around Iran reduced the risk premium in crude, further pressuring prices. A U.S. House vote against tariffs on Canadian goods had little market impact, as the resolution is unlikely to override a veto. Canadian yields also moved lower, tracking U.S. Treasuries, adding another layer of pressure on CAD. - Alan

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AUD/USD Is Pressing Against Key Resistance AUD/USD is trading near recent highs, pressing into a clear resistance zone around 0.7128. Price is easing slightly as the US Dollar finds footing after solid labor data. This is a decision area — either we break and extend higher, or stall and rotate lower if USD strength builds. The Aussie remains supported domestically. Inflation expectations jumped to 5% in February — the highest in nearly three years — reinforcing the idea that the RBA may not be done tightening. Last week’s 25bp hike to 3.85% marked the first increase in over two years, and officials have kept the door open for more if inflation stays sticky. On the US side, stronger-than-expected NFP (+130K vs 70K expected) and a dip in unemployment to 4.3% helped the dollar stabilize. Jobless claims also came in firm. As a result, near-term Fed cut expectations have been pushed back, with June now the more likely starting point. All eyes now shift to tomorrow's CPI report. - Alan

S&P 500 Climbs as Strong Jobs Data Shifts Focus to CPI S&P 500 is pushing higher into the open after holding its recent range. Buyers stepped back in following strong labor data, keeping price supported near recent highs. Momentum remains constructive, but we’re approaching levels where CPI could determine whether this breakout extends or stalls. Robust job growth and a dip in unemployment eased recession concerns, reinforcing the resilience narrative. However, stronger data also reduced immediate rate-cut expectations — markets now see higher odds of the Fed holding steady, though at least one cut is still priced for June. Jobless claims were relatively stable, adding to the “steady economy” theme. Now all eyes shift to CPI. A softer inflation print could reopen the door to easing and fuel further upside. A hotter print risks tightening financial conditions and capping gains. For now, equities are balancing two forces: solid growth (supportive) vs fewer rate cuts (restrictive). - Alan

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