A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

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AUDCHF trade update: No changes, I'm still in half of my position. Looking for follow through back to the highs. 1st half taken off for profits 📈 - Nick

The Widow Maker Crashes Out Again (USD/JPY) USD/JPY dropped from 157.80 to 155 in less than 30 minutes — 280 pips gone. The pair sliced through 155.50 support like it wasn't there. No official confirmation, but the playbook is identical to last week's suspected intervention. This is the third sharp yen spike in two weeks. Katayama warned of "decisive action," and price delivered. Traders were heavily short yen near a two-year positioning extreme — when everyone leans one way, the reversal is violent. Shorts rushing to cover accelerated the move. The pattern is established: Tokyo strikes without warning, punishes crowded positioning, and resets sentiment. Whether it's actual intervention or coordinated verbal pressure, the result is the same — cascading liquidation. Until this volatility regime clears, USD/JPY is a widow-maker for high-conviction directional bets. And if you're trading this Yen environment, make sure you're sizing responsibly. - Alan

New Zealand Employment Figures Come Out Mixed NZD/USD up 1%, the second straight session of gains after NZ unemployment dipped to 5.3%, beating the 5.4% forecast. The print was mixed. Employment grew just 0.2% vs 0.3% expected, and wage growth remains subdued — signs of spare capacity despite the headline beat. The war has crushed business confidence, keeping firms cautious on hiring. The RBNZ held in April but left the door open for hikes if second-round inflation effects emerge. Markets price just 35% odds of a May move, down from 60% last week after Governor Breman said core inflation remains within target. July is still fully priced. The kiwi is getting some tailwind as the dollar is taking a beating via the Yen strength this early morning. - Alan

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AUDCHF 1st target hit! RBA maintained a mostly hawkish stance, confirming their willingness to continue fighting inflation. - Nick

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Is The Floor In Equities Strong? Nasdaq futures are pointing higher on fresh Hormuz escalations. Weird, right? The index is caught in a tug-of-war — geopolitical risk pulling it down, AI-driven earnings revisions pulling it up. For now, earnings are winning. The numbers are hard to ignore. S&P 500 full-year earnings growth forecasts have been revised up to 23% from 18% just a month ago. Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon all crushed it. AI capex commitments are accelerating. The market is telling you it believes the spending will monetize — and until that thesis breaks, dips (if you even want to call it that) are getting bought. Markets are pricing strong growth and ignoring the war. That works until it doesn't. If Hormuz escalates into a hot conflict, the oil shock reprices everything — earnings estimates included. - Alan

RBA Doesn't Want To Hike Anymore, But Will If Forced The RBA hiked 25bps to 4.35% — third consecutive hike, 8-1 vote. The three 2026 hikes have completely unwound the three cuts from 2025. The RBA is the most aggressive major central bank right now. Headline CPI hit 4.6% in March and the board warned of second-round effects from elevated fuel prices. Even under their optimistic scenario — war resolves soon, fuel declines — inflation only returns to target slowly. Markets fully price 4.60% by September. But the statement also planted a pause signal: "monetary policy is well placed to respond to developments." The 8-1 vote was more hawkish than March's 5-4, yet the language suggests they may be done unless oil forces their hand. The Aussie is fighting a headwind — surging oil boosts safe-haven USD demand and undermines risk currencies. If the Strait stays closed, the RBA hikes again and AUD rallies. If it reopens, the hike pricing unwinds. Hormuz decides everything for AUD. - Alan

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