A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

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192 Pip Candle on USD/JPY The yen caught a sudden bid early Friday, snapping higher against the dollar with intervention risk firmly back on the table as USD/JPY pressed into sensitive territory near 160. The move was violent — a single 1-hour candle printed a 192-pip wick — catching the market off guard as London opened. So did the BoJ Intervene?? Traders speculated Japanese authorities may have conducted “rate checks,” a common signal that intervention is being considered. With the BOJ having just held rates steady and positioning heavily long USD/JPY, the move likely triggered a cascade of stop-losses. Whether this was positioning stress or a precursor to direct action should become clearer when BOJ flow data is released next business day, aka on Monday. If BoJ intervention is confirmed, we can expect some follow through. Usually the initial intervention is short-lived with momentum following shortly after. Trade safely everyone! - Alan

GBP Has Its Best Week Since August GBP/USD pushed higher this morning and is on track for its best week since August, supported by stronger UK data. Retail sales surprised to the upside and business activity jumped to a 21-month high, signaling momentum heading into Q1. British businesses reported the fastest upturn since April 2024. Employment in the services sector, however, fell at a faster rate and inflation pressures increased. The overall picture points to firmer growth. Traders pare BoE rate bets, favor one quarter-point cut in 2026. Markets are now expecting the BoE to hold rates in February, with a first cut fully priced by June — keeping sterling supported for now. - Alan

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Gold Daily: Officially the biggest trade of my career. EdgeFinder / Fundamentals + Trailing Stop. 📈 - Nick

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The Aussie Train Has Left the Station AUD/USD is ripping to its strongest level since October, notching a fourth straight daily gain and continuing to outperform even through bouts of broader risk pressure. Australia’s labor market came in hot. Employment jumped by 65k in December, smashing expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to a seven-month low at 4.1%. That combination has forced a sharp repricing in RBA expectations, with markets now assigning better-than-50% odds of a rate hike at the February 3 meeting, up from sub-30% before the release. A hike is now fully priced by May. Easing U.S.–Europe tensions helped stabilize risk sentiment, but the real driver here is domestic strength. Solid jobs growth and rising household spending point to an economy running hotter than anticipated. Next up is Q4 inflation. A firm core print would only reinforce the case for an earlier RBA move. The broader takeaway: rate speculation is back in focus, and AUD (and NZD) are being rewarded for it. - Alan