A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Gold trade update from within VIP...

EU-India Trade Deal Fuels The Rotation Trade EUR/USD is pressing into the 1.19s, marking its strongest levels since September 2021 and now leaning against a key technical resistance zone. A clean break opens the door toward 1.20. The move is being driven by broad dollar softness and a major macro tailwind out of Europe — the finalized EU–India trade deal. This agreement links economies representing roughly a quarter of global GDP and two billion people, with the EU expecting exports to India to potentially double by 2032. It’s a structural growth boost at a time when global trade routes are being reshaped by US tariffs and China-related restrictions. On the dollar side, markets are focused on the Fed. Rates are expected to stay on hold, but traders are eyeing future cuts and the possibility of a more dovish leadership shift, which keeps pressure on USD Layer in rising geopolitical and trade tensions — including fresh US tariff threats — and the environment continues to favor non-USD currencies. - Alan

Watch Out for Aussie CPI AUD is pressing into a higher-timeframe resistance zone, trading near its strongest levels since early 2023, driven largely by yield appeal. Australian bond yields continue to firm — with 3-year yields at their highest since November — as markets lean into the RBA’s hawkish stance and confidence in Australia’s credit quality. Domestic data has backed that narrative, with unemployment unexpectedly falling to a seven-month low, strengthening the case that the RBA still has room to tighten. Now it all comes down to inflation. Today’s monthly CPI and the Q4 trimmed mean (the RBA’s preferred core gauge) are key. Inflation is expected to tick back up after stalling, though trimmed mean is seen easing slightly. The RBA is already in a position where another hike is on the table. A hot print likely gives AUD the catalyst to break higher — in that case, a clean break and retest may be the higher-probability play if no pullback opportunities become present. - Alan

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Gold Blasts Above $5,000 as Safe-Haven Rush Accelerates Gold just ripped through $5,000/oz for the first time as geopolitical stress and fresh dollar pressure send capital straight into safe-havens. And if U.S. authorities are comfortable with a weaker dollar, that only reinforces the move into hard assets. The backdrop is stacking up in gold’s favor. Central banks continue diversifying reserves away from the dollar, global policy uncertainty is elevated, and multiple central banks are either easing or leaning dovish — compressing real yields and reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Add in geopolitical flare-ups, currency volatility, and fading confidence in traditional policy, and the demand for protection assets like gold becomes structural, not just tactical. What a rally nonetheless. - Alan

USD/JPY Down 540 Pips as Intervention Fears Grow USD/JPY opens the week down 1.2% The move comes as markets increasingly price the risk of coordinated U.S.–Japan FX intervention, following firm rhetoric from Tokyo and reports the New York Fed conducted a “rate check” with dealers — often viewed as a precursor to action. That sparked a sharp unwind of short-yen positioning, lifting the currency more than 3% off Friday’s lows and back to a two-month high. While Japanese officials signaled readiness to intervene, BOJ money market data suggested Friday’s spike was likely not outright intervention. Still, intervention risk alone has been enough to shake positioning and inject fresh volatility into USD/JPY. Another layer behind the yen’s strength is pressure on the dollar itself. Confidence in U.S. policy is being tested as Fed independence is questioned, tariff threats resurface, geopolitical acquisition attempts create noise, and a potential government shutdown looms. - Alan

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Stops trailed in VIP. Sticking to the plan... Macro/fundamentals + momentum = big potential! - Nick

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