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Kiwi Slips Toward Two-Week Lows as RBNZ Pushes Back on Hike Bets The kiwi slipped toward 0.576, the 38.2% retracement level for bulls, hovering near two-week lows as markets reassessed the RBNZ outlook. If price pulls back into the 50–61.8% retracement zone, the kiwi could find support there and attract dip buyers. The central bank has made it clear the easing cycle likely ended last year after 225bps of cuts, while firmly pushing back on near-term hike expectations. With Governor Breman signaling rates are likely on hold for an extended period, market pricing for a hike before September has faded, with October now the more likely window. Broader risk-off sentiment tied to renewed geopolitical tensions has added extra pressure, leaving NZD without a clear policy or risk tailwind. NZD/USD is also being weighed by renewed USD strength, as the dollar finds support amid broader risk uncertainty. - Alan

Dollar Benefits from Safe-Haven Flows The dollar has broken its daily bearish trendline, tagging the 38.2% retracement. A deeper pullback into the 50–61.8% zone would be a key area to watch, where longer-term bears may look to re-enter. Recent strength is being driven by a short-term safe-haven bid following the U.S. move against Venezuela’s President Maduro, though early reactions remain muted and risk-off flows could fade if the situation stabilizes. That said, markets are already looking past geopolitics and refocusing on U.S. data and what it means for the Fed’s path. The real driver now is the macro calendar. A run of resilient U.S. data has started to challenge the pace of rate cuts, even as markets still price two cuts this year. This week, U.S. labor data takes center stage — ADP, JOLTS, Jobless Claims, the Unemployment Rate, and NFP. Strong labor prints would support the dollar and challenge the Fed’s easing narrative, while softer data would renew downside pressure. - Alan

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Sterling Mixed with Thin Trade and Limited Catalysts Sterling is starting 2026 quietly, trading mostly sideways against both the dollar and the euro in thin holiday conditions. GBP/USD is hovering around 1.349, just off last week’s three-month high, with no fresh catalysts pushing price in either direction. The recent tone has been shaped by easing concerns around the UK budget and BoE policy. While the BoE cut rates in a narrow vote last month, officials signaled the pace of easing could slow in 2026 — and markets have taken that seriously. Traders aren’t fully pricing another cut until June, with only ~40bps of easing priced for the year. Looking ahead, the path for sterling still hinges on the data. The labor market is softening and growth remains sluggish, but recent PMI data suggests manufacturing is stabilizing, not rolling over. The next real catalyst comes with the services PMI, which will help clarify whether the broader economy can regain momentum. - Alan

Aussie Opens 2026 Near 14-Month Highs as RBA Inflation Focus Intensifies The Aussie is starting the year on the front foot, trading near 14-month highs as it shows relative strength against its major peers. Markets are now looking ahead to upcoming inflation data, which could be pivotal after the RBA signaled it’s willing to hike if price pressures don’t cool as expected. December RBA minutes made that stance clear, and attention is already turning to Q4 CPI on January 28. A firmer-than-expected core print would put a February meeting move firmly on the table. Sentiment has also been helped by improving domestic data, with manufacturing activity holding at a three-month high. A weaker U.S. dollar has added another tailwind, while zooming out, AUD closed 2025 up nearly 8%, marking its strongest annual performance since 2020. - Alan

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