A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

- Nick

Important reminder: The Federal Reserve directly controls the short end of the yield curve (via the federal funds rate and its policy tools), but the long end — particularly 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields — is ultimately determined by the bond market itself, reflecting investors’ collective expectations about growth, inflation, and future Fed policy. If the bond vigilantes disagree sharply with what the fed chooses to do with the fed funds rate, long term bond yields (the ones that matter most for mortgages) may remain elevated regardless The next fed chair will inherit slightly elevated inflation, a slow labor market, and steep expectations from the white house. Let's see what happens!

With Kevin Hassett emerging as the frontrunner for Federal Reserve chair—a vocal advocate for aggressive rate cuts—the U.S. dollar's appeal is tempered despite offering the highest real yields among G7 currencies. This dynamic leaves me mixed on USD's near-term trajectory. On one hand: US growth is outpacing peers, offering attractive real yield. At the same time - the current administration will push for rate cuts, and will likely get them with Hassett at the helm.

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GOLD Daily Chart 🥇 Price looks to be trying to break out today. Gold VIP signal is nicely in profit ✅ - Nick

Yen Turns the Tide USD/JPY pulls back to 154.9, slipping off recent highs. Momentum has cooled as buyers hesitate. A deeper dip could open the door toward short-term support zones. Fresh comments from Governor Ueda have the market bracing for a BoJ rate hike, as Japan battles sticky inflation and tariff-driven price pressures. Traders now price a 75% chance of a December hike, a major shift after years of ultra-easy policy. On the U.S. side, the backdrop is the opposite: the Fed is widely expected to cut rates in December, and the prospect of a more dovish Fed chair next year signals a deeper easing path into 2026. Together, this narrowing rate-divergence is fueling yen strength and pressuring USD/JPY lower. - Alan

Euro Presses the Ceiling EUR/USD is climbing back above 1.16 — its strongest level since mid-November — as traders brace for a loaded week of Eurozone and U.S. data that could shift interest-rate expectations. Germany’s inflation just accelerated to 2.6% (highest since February) and Spain stayed well above the ECB’s 2% target, while France and Italy printed softer numbers. ECB minutes also showed no urgency to cut rates, keeping market expectations steady for no policy changes through 2026. Also, dovish Fed commentary has traders leaning into the idea of a third rate cut in December, giving EUR/USD an extra tailwind. A breakout could unlock more euro strength on the back of firm Eurozone inflation and softening U.S. rate expectations. Failure to break would keep the pair trapped in its multi-week range, with traders waiting for this week's data to decide the next move. - Alan

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