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GBP Is Getting Close To 3 Key Moving Averages GBP is basically stuck in place here, with markets still trying to make sense of the Middle East situation. Even with a ceasefire extension, there’s no real clarity. On the macro side, inflation ticked higher, but nothing aggressive. It just reinforces the idea that price pressures are still there, especially with the energy shock in the background. Markets are still pricing in at least one hike, maybe two, but conviction is low. The Bank of England is in a tough spot, balancing sticky inflation against signs that growth could start to slow. So for GBP/USD, it’s a wait-and-see environment. You’ve got inflation holding up, which supports the currency, but uncertainty around growth and policy is capping upside. A key cluster of moving averages — the 20, 50, and 200-day SMAs — is converging around 1.3400. A pullback into this zone could act as a key test, where buyers step in and reveal the true appetite for GBP. - Alan

Oil, and Many Other Assets Are Tricky Right Now Oil is getting hit from both sides right now — fundamentals and headlines — and they’re not fully aligned. On the data front, crude inventories unexpectedly built by ~1.9M barrels, with increases at Cushing and a slight slowdown in refinery activity. That leans bearish on the surface. But underneath, product demand is telling a different story — gasoline and distillates saw much larger-than-expected draws, signaling consumption is still holding up. Now add in the geopolitical layer. Headlines keep flip flopping — ceasefire extensions, talks potentially happening as soon as Friday, but no firm commitment yet. That uncertainty is translating directly into price action, with sharp, reactive moves across oil and broader markets. Pretty annoying imo Fundamentals and headlines are contradicting each other, making a clean directional call difficult. A lot of people are sitting on their hands right now, waiting for clearer confirmation before stepping in. - Alan

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Kevin Warsh speaking notes: - Trump puppet? Maybe not! - Emphasis on fed independence / loyalty first to fed - Wants to reduce feds balalance sheet (a proxy tax on the wealthy class, due to possible deflating of asset prices & inflation) - Predictive analysis > Data dependent. He argues instead of waiting for problems to arise, the fed should be looking forward with all of its data, and nimble to new technologies. My personal opinion: I think he's a great pick for the job.

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Gold Bias🤔 Chart of the Day: XAU/USD🔥

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Can Gold Gain Its Shine Again? Gold is struggling to gain traction, hovering just below $4,800 as markets balance ongoing Middle East tensions with the potential for negotiations. Despite the geopolitical backdrop, it hasn’t caught a strong safe-haven bid. The bigger driver has been macro. The energy shock pushed inflation expectations higher and kept rate hike risks alive, while strong US data — especially on the consumer side — has reduced urgency to move into gold. That combination has weighed on price, with gold down over 8% since the conflict began. Now the narrative may be shifting. With a potential end to the war, oil cooling, and a new Fed chair in focus, the setup for gold could start improving — especially if yields begin to soften and policy leans more dovish. From a positioning standpoint, gold is starting to stabilize. EdgeFinder has it at a Neutral +4, right on the edge of turning bullish, with solid support sitting in that $4,400–$4,200 range. - Alan

Will Kevin Warsh Lean Dovish? DXY is stalling right at that $98 support level, with pressure largely coming from improving sentiment around the Middle East. As de-escalation hopes build, the dollar is losing some of its safe-haven bid. Price action reflects that tug-of-war. You’ve still got underlying tension — with the U.S. maintaining pressure and headlines flipping back and forth — but markets are leaning toward a negotiation outcome. That’s keeping the dollar from breaking higher. Today’s key catalyst is Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh. If he leans dovish in his Senate hearing and opens the door to rate cuts, that would likely push short-term rates and real yields lower — a clear negative for the dollar. - Alan