A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

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AI Is Making Huge Developments, and The Nasdaq Is Reflecting That. Nasdaq is, up ~1.33% today and sitting near all-time highs. The recovery from the March lows to fresh records was the fastest oversold-to-overbought swing since the early 1980s. Two catalysts are stacking. First, Trump's indefinite ceasefire extension on April 22 reignited risk appetite and sent tech to new highs. Second, Intel's Q1 earnings blew the doors off last night — $13.6B revenue vs $12.4B expected, EPS $0.29 vs $0.01. Stock up 25% today, dragging semis and the broader Nasdaq with it. Intel's data center unit grew 22% YoY as agentic workloads shift demand back toward CPUs. The risk is the ceasefire optimism gets pulled from under the market. Today's escalation headlines — mine-clearing orders, air defenses in Tehran — show how fragile the bid is. Though there's a possibility things continue to get better from here. (Hopefully) My only concern would be how far rally without some sort of stabilization. - Alan

Can Peace Talks Happen This Week? WTI whipsawed between 92.33 and 98.40 today — a $6 intraday range driven entirely by headlines. Brent touched $107 on the escalation spike before reversing hard. Price consolidating around $96. The escalation headlines hit all at once — Trump ordered mine-clearing operations with shoot-to-kill rules, Iran's top negotiator reportedly quit, air defenses engaged in Tehran, and Israel signaled readiness to resume the war. Then the reversal: Iran's FM Aragchi heading to Islamabad, Muscat, and Moscow for talks. Oil dropped $3 in minutes. This is the pattern. Escalate to the brink, pull back with a diplomatic headline. Rinse, repeat. The market's been riding this seesaw for weeks and the moves are getting more violent as positioning thins out. Until there's a deal or a genuine escalation beyond posturing, oil stays headline-driven. We have the potential this weekend for some kind of a meaningful resolution. - Alan

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Eurozone Prints The Weakest Services PMI Since COVID Lockdown EUR/USD sits at 1.1700, its weakest in two weeks after failing to break above 1.18. Short-term downtrend intact. The divergence is widening. US flash PMIs beat across the board — services 51.3, manufacturing 54.0, composite 52.0. The eurozone printed contraction at 48.6, first since late 2024. Services at 47.4 is the worst since pandemic lockdowns. Europe's energy shock is pushing inflation higher while crushing growth underneath it. The ECB is in a tricky spot. Rates held at 2.00% since June, but markets now price up to three hikes in 2026 — a full reversal from last year's cuts. Inflation forecast raised to 2.6%, growth slashed to 0.9%. Textbook stagflation setup. EUR/USD is getting hit from both sides — dollar strength above, eurozone fundamentals cracking below. April 30's ECB decision is the key meeting next week. If growth keeps deteriorating, the rate repricing that's been supporting the euro could unwind fast. - Alan

A Directional Call On USD Is Tough. Here's The Latest: DXY holding near 98.6, a two-week high. Momentum is flattening — watch for a push above 99.0 to confirm continuation. Failure keeps it range-bound. The Strait of Hormuz standoff is the dominant driver. Trump ordered the Navy to target vessels laying mines, while Iran has shut down international traffic through it. US PMIs beat across the board — services 51.3, manufacturing 54.0, composite 52.0. The economy is accelerating while Europe contracts. But Fed futures are swinging wildly — markets price just a 24% chance of a December cut, down from two cuts pre-conflict. Trading rate path expectations here is a coin flip. Macro supports the dollar, but positioning is cautious. Traders are shortening time horizons, collecting premium, and waiting for clarity. Until the Fed path or Middle East resolves, expect choppy action. Don't get too bold. - Alan

Copper trade update: I am looking for a break and close above the prior 4H highs here in order to trail my stop into profit! - Nick

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