A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

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EUR/USD Stabilizes at 1.16 as Oil Pullback Eases Inflation Fears EUR/USD is stabilizing around the 1.16 handle, holding firm as risk sentiment improves slightly. Price is in a consolidation phase here—waiting on the next catalyst to break out of this range. The euro is catching a bid on de-escalation hopes in the Middle East, as talk of a potential ceasefire and U.S. peace proposals cools immediate risk. That’s taken some pressure off energy markets, with oil slipping back below $100, easing inflation concerns. But the backdrop isn’t clean. Iran is pushing back on negotiations, so this “relief” could be fragile. On the policy side, the ECB remains flexible. Christine Lagarde made it clear they’re ready to act at any meeting if energy-driven inflation spills over. Still, with oil pulling back, markets have dialed down rate expectations—now pricing ~2 hikes instead of 3 by year-end. That shift in rate expectations is capping upside for EUR, even as short-term sentiment improves. - Alan

AUD/USD Stable as Oil Pullback Supports Risk Sentiment AUD/USD is stuck in a tight range here—support sits at ~0.6900, while resistance comes in at 0.71500. The Aussie is stabilizing as oil pulls back, helping risk sentiment a bit after recent pressure. That said, the macro backdrop is still mixed. Inflation data didn’t move the needle much—headline CPI cooled slightly to 3.7% YoY, and core came in a touch softer at 3.3%, but both remain above the RBA’s target. The bigger story is energy. With petrol prices up ~45%, markets are expecting inflation to re-accelerate near-term. Because of that, the RBA is still in play for more hikes. Markets are pricing roughly a 50% chance of a May hike, with rates potentially pushing toward ~4.75% by year-end. That’s keeping a floor under AUD for now. On the flip side, broader rate expectations and global risk still matter. If yields stay elevated and risk sentiment rolls over again, AUD likely struggles to sustain upside. - Alan

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NZD/USD Slides as RBNZ Says No Hikes Yet NZD/USD is under pressure, trading near a two-month low. Price remains heavy despite a brief bounce—momentum still favors the downside unless risk sentiment stabilizes. Currently trading below the 200 & 50 Day Moving Averages. Kiwi is getting dragged lower as markets fade the risk-on bounce. Initial optimism from delayed U.S. strikes on Iran quickly reversed after conflicting headlines, keeping uncertainty elevated. That’s weighing on risk currencies like NZD. On the policy side, the RBNZ is taking a more patient approach. Yesterday, Governor Breman signaled the bank will look through short-term energy spikes, with no urgency to hike unless inflation becomes entrenched. Markets have pulled back near-term hike expectations, with odds of a May move declining and swaps easing off recent highs. Between softer rate expectations and fragile risk sentiment, NZD remains under pressure. Currently the EdgeFinder shows a strong -11 bearish reading. - Alan

Nasdaq Is Vulnerable, Here's Why The Nasdaq is under pressure, trading below the 200-day moving average and testing the 24,000 support zone. This is a key inflection point. A clean break and hold below this level opens the door toward the next major support near 22,000, which would put the index roughly -15% off the highs. Equities are getting squeezed from both sides: risk-off flows and higher rate prospects. The ongoing Middle East conflict is pushing capital out of risk assets and into the safe-haven dollar, weighing on tech and growth names. At the same time, rising yields are tightening financial conditions. Higher rates increase borrowing costs for companies, reduce future cash flow valuations (especially for high-growth tech), and compress multiples—making it harder for equities to sustain upside. If oil stays elevated and keeps inflation pressure alive, yields likely remain higher for longer. That combination leaves the Nasdaq vulnerable to further downside. - Alan

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