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UK Economy Shows Signs of a Slowdown as Inflation Stays Sticky GBP/USD is hovering near 1.328, sitting right on a key support zone at 1.3250. The pound is stuck between macro uncertainty and shifting rate expectations. On the geopolitical side, markets are still skeptical of any near-term resolution in U.S.-Iran tensions. Deadlines keep getting pushed, talks are unclear, and positioning reflects that uncertainty. At the same time, BoE expectations have flipped hawkish. Markets have gone from pricing cuts to now expecting at least two hikes, possibly more this year. That shift is helping support GBP on dips. Domestically, the data is mixed. Retail sales weren’t as weak as feared, but consumer confidence is sliding, showing households are feeling the pressure from rising costs and geopolitical uncertainty. If things worsen—growth deteriorates further while inflation stays high—that’s when the stagflation becomes a reality for the UK. - Alan

Oil Is Popping Off Again. Back In The Range Oil is pushing back toward $96, reclaiming ground after a sharp pullback. Price remains elevated and reactive—this is still a headline-driven market with wide swings. The bid in oil is coming back as confidence in a near-term deal fades. Mixed signals out of the U.S. and Iran are keeping uncertainty high, while military escalation risks continue to build. Even with talks ongoing and deadlines being pushed out, the reality is the Strait of Hormuz remains a bottleneck, and supply risk is still very real. That’s why crude is still up significantly since the conflict began. Until there’s clear de-escalation, oil stays supported. Every failed headline or escalation risk keeps a floor under prices. - Alan

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NASDAQ Daily: Technicals looking very rough. - Losing the 200 day moving average - Failure to hold critical support - VIX spiking to high 20s again Momentum seems bearish for now. - Nick

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Equities Need To Overcome Bearish Technicals To piggy back on the yields story, Nasdaq is losing momentum, trading below the 200-day MA and now starting to give way at the 24,000 support level. If this breaks cleanly, downside opens up fast. As yields push higher, markets are pricing higher-for-longer rates, which is a headwind for tech and growth. Higher discount rates = lower valuations, simple as that. At the same time, failed negotiations and mixed signals around the Middle East are keeping oil elevated, feeding inflation expectations and keeping pressure on yields. That combination is what’s weighing on equities. As long as yields stay elevated and headlines show no real progress, Nasdaq remains vulnerable. If yields keep pushing higher, expect further do - Alan

The Chart That Will Answer All Your Questions Yields are driving asset price action right now. When yields rise, markets price in higher-for-longer rates—pressuring equities, gold, and other risk assets. When yields fall, it signals a shift back toward easier policy and supports risk. The US10Y pushing toward ~4.35% tells you everything about positioning—rates higher = tighter conditions. Rising yields reflect sticky inflation expectations and higher-for-longer policy, largely driven by the energy shock tied to Middle East tensions. As long as oil stays elevated and inflation risk lingers, the Fed has no urgency to ease. Watch yields. They’re the clearest read on macro sentiment and will dictate where everything else trades. - Alan

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