A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Oil Stays Elevated as Supply Risks Remain Front and Center Oil is staying elevated because supply risk is still very real. WTI pushed up toward $96 as markets stayed locked in on the Middle East, where any further escalation could tighten flows and keep crude supported. Even with some mixed rhetoric from the US side suggesting this could cool off, the bigger issue is that the market still sees too many ways supply can get disrupted. The Strait of Hormuz remains the main pressure point, and now traders are also watching the Red Sea. If the Houthis get involved and threaten Bab el-Mandeb, that would add another major layer of risk and likely send oil even higher. So for now, despite some talk that this could settle down, the supply backdrop still leans bullish for crude. - Alan

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The Precious Metal Story Just Got a Whole Lot Worse. Silver is getting crushed, down 10%+ and sliding toward $65, marking its lowest level since mid-December. The move is impulsive and liquidation-like, with volatility driving outsized downside. Silver is being hit by a hawkish global rates repricing on top of Iran war-driven volatility. With central banks holding firm and leaning more hawkish, the opportunity cost of owning a non-yielding metal is rising fast. The Fed stayed on hold but emphasized sticky inflation and conflict risk, with Powell leaving the door open to staying restrictive. The BOJ kept April hike talk alive, and the BoE held but struck a surprisingly hawkish tone. Markets have responded by pushing Fed easing further out and pricing more tightening elsewhere—exactly the kind of backdrop that pressures silver. You now how the majority of major central banks leaning hawkish. Not good for the non-yielding metal. - Alan

USD/JPY Wobbles as BOJ Keeps April Hike in Play and Fed Stays Restrictive USD/JPY is reacting to a widening policy split: BOJ hawkishness vs. Fed “higher-for-longer” uncertainty. With both sides in play, expect choppy price action and fast intraday swings as rates and risk sentiment reprice. The yen firmed after Governor Ueda’s remarks were read as hawkish. The BOJ held rates at 0.75%, but Ueda kept the door open to an April hike by emphasizing the bank will keep studying incoming data and improve how it tracks CPI—signaling tightening is still on the table. At the same time, oil is surging again on attacks tied to Middle East energy infrastructure, reviving inflation risk and complicating central bank decisions. On the U.S. side, the Fed held rates steady, while Powell stressed uncertainty and made it clear cuts depend on inflation moving closer to target. Markets have responded by pushing easing expectations further out and keeping USD supported near recent highs. - Alan

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Gold Slides Toward $4,850 as Hot PPI Lifts Yields and the Dollar Gold is sliding again, trading down toward the $4,850 area and sitting near its lowest level in about a month. The price action is heavy, and rebounds are struggling to gain traction. Gold is getting capped by the same macro chain reaction: hotter inflation → higher yields → stronger dollar. February PPI came in hot (+0.7%), pushing US10Y yields toward ~4.2% and lifting DXY near ~99.9 ahead of the Fed decision. That raises the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, which is why gold is struggling even with geopolitical risk still elevated. Safe-haven demand is still present in the background due to Middle East escalation and continued threats to Gulf energy infrastructure, but right now the market is prioritizing USD liquidity and higher yields over gold. If inflation stays elevated and yields keep rising, gold could easily see more downside from here. - Alan

DXY Rebounds Toward 100 as Hot PPI and Oil Risk Put the Fed Dot Plot in Focus DXY is back near 99.9 after dipping toward 99.5 earlier, showing buyers stepping in on the pullback. The next key test remains whether USD can build acceptance back near the 100 handle. The dollar is firming as inflation pressure re-enters the driver’s seat. Oil is climbing again on headlines that Iranian energy facilities have come under attack, keeping the energy-to-inflation pipeline hot. At the same time, U.S. PPI surprised higher—headline +0.7% MoM and core +0.5% MoM—reinforcing that inflation is still sticky even beyond energy. Now it’s about the Fed. Rates are expected to stay unchanged, but the market will focus on the dot plot and Powell’s tone. If the Fed revises 2026 expectations toward fewer or no cuts because of higher energy prices, that’s USD-positive and can fuel a quick pop. - Alan

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The Awaited RBA Meeting Is Now Behind Us. Here's What Happened: AUD/USD is holding firm near 0.709, building on the 1.3% rally from the prior session. Near-term support sits around 0.69500, while resistance is the 0.72000 area (recent multi-year high). AUD is catching a bid after the RBA delivered a 25bp hike to 4.10%, but the bigger takeaway was the message: the debate was about timing, not direction. Even with a tight 5–4 split, Governor Bullock repeatedly flagged inflation risk and made it clear the board isn’t convinced policy is restrictive enough yet to bring inflation back to target. Markets took the tone as hawkish and pushed up the probability of another hike in May, while a move to 4.35% remains priced by August. Core inflation around 3.4% is still too sticky, which keeps the tightening bias alive. The split vote also reflects added uncertainty from the Iran conflict—but the signal is still the same: the RBA is leaning toward doing more, not less. - Alan