A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

The EU Says They Weren't Consulted About The War. So They Shouldn't Pay the Price EUR/USD is stabilizing after a sharp drop that pushed the pair to its weakest level since last July. The euro is caught between geopolitics, soft data, and central bank risk. Germany isn’t helping either—investor confidence fell sharply in March as markets worry rising prices could derail the recovery. On the positive side, EU officials (Kallas) are signaling openness to talks with Iran, stating, “The main concern of EU countries is that they were not consulted on the start of the war in Iran or its objectives.” Following that, Kallas said, “The door is not closed on participation in the Strait of Hormuz, and we have to find diplomatic ways to keep trade open to avoid a food and energy crisis.” This openness to engage Iran supports hopes of restoring oil flows—especially after NATO didn’t step in when Trump called for ships. Next catalyst is the ECB meeting Thursday, where rates are expected to hold. - Alan

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DXY Falls Below 100. 99.5 Becomes the Key Test DXY has slipped back below 100, easing off last week’s highs. The key zone I’m watching is a pullback into 99.5—how price reacts there will tell us if this is a healthy reset or the start of a deeper unwind. The dollar is cooling as oil eases and markets reassess Iran-related inflation risk. Signs that Iranian tankers may be allowed through Hormuz have taken heat out of crude, temporarily reducing the inflation shock that was supporting USD. The endgame is still unclear, and headlines can flip sentiment quickly. The next major catalyst is the Fed later this week. Rates are expected to stay on hold, but traders will focus on how policymakers frame the recent energy spike and what it means for inflation and borrowing costs. Right now, markets are only pricing one 25bp cut, likely not before December. Oil and yields are the tell. If yields flare, markets are leaning hawkish and USD gets fuel. If yields stay suppressed, dollar upside likely stays capped. - Alan

AUD/USD Up 1.10% as RBA Hike Bets Rise on Oil-Driven Inflation Risk AUD/USD is recovering, back near 0.70 after last week’s pullback. This area is important—holding above it keeps the rebound constructive, while rejection would signal the bounce is losing steam. AUD is catching a bid as markets lean more hawkish on the RBA. Middle East escalation is pushing oil higher and reviving inflation risk, which keeps the “rates up” narrative alive for Australia. Over the weekend, the U.S. struck targets near Kharg Island and warned it could expand attacks on energy infrastructure if Hormuz shipping is disrupted—adding fuel to the inflation story. The key catalyst is the RBA decision Tuesday. Markets are looking for a second consecutive hike to 4.1%, and are pricing the possibility of additional hikes into year-end, potentially taking the cash rate above the prior cycle peak. If the hike comes through, the real market mover will be guidance—how far the RBA signals it’s willing to go if inflation stays sticky - Alan

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