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Congrats to the dollar bulls out there :) - Nick

GBP/USD Slides for a Fourth Day as UK Stagnation Meets Safe-Haven USD Demand GBP/USD is sliding again, on track for a fourth straight daily loss. Price action remains heavy, and until the pair finds a clear base, rebounds are likely to be treated as corrective moves within a broader risk-off downtrend. Sterling is getting hit from two angles: weak UK data and a stronger safe-haven dollar. UK growth unexpectedly stagnated in January, while longer-term inflation expectations remain stubbornly high—an ugly mix heading into an energy shock environment. The Middle East conflict has revived oil-driven inflation risk, which makes it harder for the BoE to cut rates even as domestic demand looks soft. The market is leaning toward a hold next week rather than a cut, with some traders even pricing a more hawkish path into 2026. But the counterpoint is simple: if growth stays weak and the labor market cools, sustained tightening expectations may prove excessive—especially if energy prices eventually roll over. - Alan

DXY Hits 100 as Oil Shock Drives Safe-Haven Demand DXY is on track for a second straight weekly gain and has broken out, tagging the next major resistance at 100. With price now testing a psychological level, the key is whether DXY can hold above it—acceptance keeps momentum intact, rejection risks a pullback. This is a classic risk-off, energy-shock USD bid. The Middle East war is pushing investors into the dollar while energy-sensitive currencies like the euro and yen weaken. A sustained oil spike is especially negative for the eurozone and Japan, which rely heavily on crude imports, while the U.S. is relatively insulated as a net exporter. Oil has become the main macro driver again: higher crude raises inflation risk and threatens growth, keeping markets defensive. Even with repeated efforts to calm supply fears—strategic reserve releases, temporary policy measures, and signs of limited tanker movement—the market is still pricing a meaningful risk premium. - Alan

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A Breakout or Another Wick To The Downside? DXY is grinding higher near 99.4, extending gains for a fourth straight session and hovering near two-month highs. The next level to watch is 99.50, a zone that has rejected price in the past—acceptance above it would signal a cleaner breakout. The dollar is staying supported as the Iran conflict drags on and oil remains bid, keeping inflation risk elevated and reinforcing a higher-for-longer rate backdrop. U.S. data has been steady: jobless claims came in slightly better at 212K, and the trade deficit narrowed in January—both modestly USD-supportive. Next catalyst is the Fed. Rates are expected to remain unchanged next week, but markets will focus on the dot plot and forward guidance. With inflation risk rising through energy, the bar for cuts stays high, which keeps the dollar underpinned. - Alan

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Dow Down -1.05%: Higher Rates Are Not Good The Dow is back under pressure, down about 1.05%, as global equities sell off on another leg higher in oil. Price action remains risk-off, and until energy cools or rates stabilize, rallies will likely stay capped. This is an oil-driven macro shock feeding straight into equities. The market’s reaction is telling: crude barely blinked even after a record 400M-barrel reserve release, which signals traders are pricing a longer disruption window, not a quick fix. Even at that size, the release only covers roughly 2–4 weeks of global demand—if Gulf flows remain impaired beyond that, the supply picture can tighten again fast. With that timeline, markets are already shifting to the second-order effects: higher inflation risk and tighter central bank policy paths. Fed pricing has turned more hawkish, with the second cut effectively gone and markets now leaning toward barely one cut in 2026. February CPI was in line, but it’s backward-looking. - Alan

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GBPUSD Daily: Staying short for now. - Weak economic data out of the UK recently, with dollar strength boosted by geopolitical uncertainty - Inflation data has been higher than expected for the US. This signals perhaps less rate cuts are coming this year (strong for dollar) - Technical downtrend remains intact on the 4H - Nick